This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Patrick said:
So the story isn’t finished. Right now I’d say 3x the deaths isn’t that far out of line.

10x or more was where I was originally thinking.
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3× deaths by when? End of 2020? 2021?

Real death rate will be less than 0.3%. Based on antibody testing, FL total infected right now is about 1MM. Like Monkey Soup said, flu averages 0.1% - with vaccines.
 
thegock said:
Except for cases, dead bodies and rate of transmission? But,
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Patrick said:
So the story isn’t finished. Right now I’d say 3x the deaths isn’t that far out of line.

10x or more was where I was originally thinking. >1M

revisit in 10 days. Big difference with positives now is that it is the younger groups. Will they spread it to the older crowd? Check in mid July.
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Wait till the colleges reopen in August. Should be interesting.
 
Patrick said:
Big difference with positives now is that it is the younger groups. Will they spread it to the older crowd? Check in mid July.
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Anecdote is not data but at my mom's FL retirement community, they continue to have their thrice-weekly outside chats with chairs properly distanced. I (personally) think awareness of the elderly's risk is going to reduce the spread from younger to older.
 
mfennell said:
Anecdote is not data but at my mom's FL retirement community, they continue to have their thrice-weekly outside chats with chairs properly distanced. I (personally) think awareness of the elderly's risk is going to reduce the spread from younger to older.
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I believe this is the norm in FL - the vulnerable know who they are and are taking appropriate measures. Everyone else, might as well get to herd immunity faster
 
rick81721 said:
Real death rate will be less than 0.3%. Based on antibody testing, FL total infected right now is about 1MM. Like Monkey Soup said, flu averages 0.1% - with vaccines.
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What is 'real death rate'? Because 0.3% of NYC population died and they definitely didn't all get COVID-19 (~20% test positive for antibodies). The flu averages 0.1% of those who get infected. Otherwise we'd see 400k flu deaths/yr.
 
Monkey Soup said:
Except the flu actually is worse. Our immune systems aren’t naive to it, there’s a vaccine for it, but it STILL kills 20-60k people a year in the US. Science, it’s true whether you believe in it or not.
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I believe that the USA average for the last 3 years is 36,000 flu dead.

Does that make the flu worse than 120k in 3 months?

Help me out here, @Monkey Soup --- I was never any good at so-called math.
 
mfennell said:
What is 'real death rate'? Because 0.3% of NYC population died and they definitely didn't all get COVID-19 (~20% test positive for antibodies). The flu averages 0.1% of those who get infected. Otherwise we'd see 400k flu deaths/yr.
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real death rate is dead/total infected. FL has tested 1% of the population for antibodies, 4.3% positive. So 3100 dead/1 million
 
Mtbdog said:
Yeah right. More like stand shoulder to shoulder talking cars or riding one bike behind the other in a line. Sorry bud not the same. I've already been tested clean or else I would not have invited Brett and Paul. I know the 2 people I rode with today and trust that they are clean also or I doubt they would have joined in. I doubt you can say the same about your car show. But egos must be fed. Childlike disregard for what is now standard practice. Because the goading is just too ridiculous. I just can't see anyone defending this position but I should have known.
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I love how if it's something that you want to do it's fine, but something that you don't care about, the people are "asshats" or "childlike". Were you wearing masks on your ride? I didn't think so.
 
ok. I’m going to create a comfort level thread later tonight. It is a continuum of opinion. Nobody is right, cause we don’t know.
Maybe we should error on the conservative side? Maybe we have limited contact

as adult Americans we can decide on comfort level and actions.

I have no doubt that stores will compete in this space. Mask vs no mask. Pre-order vs browse. We will choose our behavior

i will post some ground rules and examples
You will not attack others for their behavior. You may try to persuade them

this is a great topic.
 
thegock said:
Except for cases, dead bodies and rate of transmission? But, "consider the source" as a wise, young man once said (Post #3,947 above.)

@SNOWFAK3 Do you want to revisit this post 53 days later? Regression analysis could be #fakemath?

For my next act, I will dredge up all the "...just like the flu..." posts that our forum scientists posted.
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The Landfill of Slacktown said:
We're on the italy track but worse, modern day American exceptionalism is being displayed at every store, park, movie theater and restaurant. "We" are immune from everything, because Merica, its why we don't vote, save, or try. There is an expectation that we don't have to worry about anything because it will be fixed before "I" have to do a thing about it. My whole life I've heard I don't need to worry about (X) because they'll have a cure for it when it happens to me.

The gov is more worried about airlines staying afloat over people paying their mortgage or hospital bills. Forget that they just got a huge tax cut and spent the money they are asking for on stock buybacks, they should sell their stock to fund their recovery.

America is staring down the barrel and it opened its mouth, yet we're going to be shocked when someone has to shovel our brains off the ground.
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post 1222, I've got my shovel ready seeing everyone nuts to butts in stores, I'm going back to pick up only and 6am store visits as people don't want to social distance anymore.

I also want to say regardless of your level of comfort you should side with the person next to you not wanting you closer then 6 feet, clearing my throat has helped me keep people out of my personal space, I've learned I like personal space more than I thought and will abuse people's paranoia to keep it.
 
Patrick said:
ok. I’m going to create a comfort level thread later tonight. It is a continuum of opinion. Nobody is right, cause we don’t know.
Maybe we should error on the conservative side? Maybe we have limited contact

as adult Americans we can decide on comfort level and actions.

I have no doubt that stores will compete in this space. Mask vs no mask. Pre-order vs browse. We will choose our behavior

i will post some ground rules and examples
You will not attack others for their behavior. You may try to persuade them

this is a great topic.
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does this mean we can finally fight in this thread I have shit to say about the old man selfies
 
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