Tariffs...what to make of them.

Bike N Gear said:
The majority of the population isn't looking for an opportunity to make money off of this. They want to be able to afford to live.
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ACK, but again, that's how markets work. If not Trump, some other exogenous shock was coming to roil markets. They do not go straight up forever. Well, maybe if you're invested w/ Madoff?

And yeah, most people aren't even invested in the markets, so we can skip market talk for them. Inflation was already raging before Trump, his policies have piled on to the price shock.

My original train of thought in posting this morning was in response to those posting market updates. I guess I needed a "DISLAIMER #3" that I was only talking about market impact (despite my entire diatribe only talking about market impact).

Your points are valid and understood, just not where my mind was in replying to those other posts.
 
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I have read that trumps plan is to pay for the federal government with tariffs instead of income tax. The idea is to get rid of the irs and create ers(external revenue service). They even talk about this in project 2025 to a point. My understanding is the tariffs would only pay about 1/3 of what’s needed.
 
rjr44 said:
You're luckier than me re: COVID influence around you. I had doctor friends saying the worst is yet to come.
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my wife came home every day from the ER after removing dead people from cars all day, having two of her coworkers die.....Still always optimistic somehow...but she 100% has a screw loose somewhere.
 
UtahJoe said:
my wife came home every day from the ER after removing dead people from cars all day, having two of her coworkers die.....Still always optimistic somehow...but she 100% has a screw loose somewhere.
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there is no emoji for mad, sad, laugh, thumbs up, all in one else i'd give it to that reply! you had it all, roller coaster of emotion in 3 phrases!
 
Interesting excerpt from an OpEd in the WSJ today

A bigger Washington swamp. Tariffs impose costs that businesses will want to avoid. They will thus be a windfall for Beltway lobbyists as companies and countries seek exemptions from this or that border tax. Mr. Trump is saying there will be no tariff exemptions. But watch that promise vanish as politicians, including Mr. Trump, see exemptions as a way to leverage campaign contributions from business. Liberation Day is Buy Another Yacht Day for the swamp
 
2Julianas said:
Interesting excerpt from an OpEd in the WSJ today

A bigger Washington swamp. Tariffs impose costs that businesses will want to avoid. They will thus be a windfall for Beltway lobbyists as companies and countries seek exemptions from this or that border tax. Mr. Trump is saying there will be no tariff exemptions. But watch that promise vanish as politicians, including Mr. Trump, see exemptions as a way to leverage campaign contributions from business. Liberation Day is Buy Another Yacht Day for the swamp
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Funny, I went through the 3 pages of tariffs and I see no tariff for Russia?
 
scott62 said:
Funny, I went through the 3 pages of tariffs and I see no tariff for Russia?
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The White House on Thursday defended its decision to not include Russia, North Korea, Cuba or Belarus in the latest round of tariffs, which targeted dozens of global trading partners that were labeled the “worst offenders” when it came to trade barriers.

A White House official told The Hill in a statement that the four nations “are not subject to the Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order because they are already facing extremely high tariffs, and our previously imposed sanctions preclude any meaningful trade with these countries.”

The official added that Trump has “recently threatened to impose strong sanctions on Russia” to further explain leaving out Moscow.

From https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...ouse-donald-trump-tariffs-russia-north-korea/
 
2Julianas said:
Interesting excerpt from an OpEd in the WSJ today

A bigger Washington swamp. Tariffs impose costs that businesses will want to avoid. They will thus be a windfall for Beltway lobbyists as companies and countries seek exemptions from this or that border tax. Mr. Trump is saying there will be no tariff exemptions. But watch that promise vanish as politicians, including Mr. Trump, see exemptions as a way to leverage campaign contributions from business. Liberation Day is Buy Another Yacht Day for the swamp
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headline from fox news so you know its true

What to know about President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs​

The Trump administration has said foreign countries have reached out to negotiate lower tariffs​


So right there....are they setting this up for another "art of the deal.....disappear our illegal immigrants, give more money to one of my big donors, etc....and I will remove your Tariff?" AKA...line up and kiss my ring oligarchs.... If so, I guess the reshoring of American manufacturing was bullshit.
 
tRUMP is already at Mar-a-Lago for his $11 million golf weekend. He hates America and everyone in it.
This man bankrupts his 3 AC Casinos.
He is a Nihilist. I had to say this because I always hated this man, he almost bankrupt the contractor I was working for the contractor either received .50 or .75 cents on a dollar.
 
John the Plumber said:
tRUMP is already at Mar-a-Lago for his $11 million golf weekend. He hates America and everyone in it.
This man bankrupts his 3 AC Casinos.
He is a Nihilist. I had to say this because I always hated this man, he almost bankrupt the contractor I was working for the contractor either received .50 or .75 cents on a dollar.
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He bankrupted 6 business if I'm correct and now he will bankrupt USA.
 
Half of AC failed. When it was good, it was good. Predates casinos on native American land.
It changed everything.

Businesses fail, some succeed. Don't point to failures when he is still a multi-millionaire.
Sure, you can say he lost his investor's money - but they don't invest without a track record of returns.

I don't like the "we are going this way" without discourse. Sure, he was elected to make decisions.
Big decisions that will have significant short term impacts may be something that should have a ramp?????

oh, and Elon - he thinks the majority is behind him because of logic (meaning everyone must agree with him) - guess again.
Actions always have unanticipated consequences. I'm fairly sure if I was working in a think tank for him,
I could have predicted that heavy political action would have an adverse effect on his businesses.

Bezos is timing his release of satellite internet perfectly....

I'm still in the position that we can't judge it in real time. I don't know what the end game is??
Sure, it is messing with me. I'm not selling anything because I set up a high yield portfolio -
what I'm missing is reinvesting at the lower cost. Timing. so be it.
 
I suspected this might be true, but now I’ve heard it directly from bike brands. It is likely that inventory previously destined for the us market will be diverted to other markets where these brands can actually sell their goods for a profit. Look for significant increases in prices for all things bicycles and shortages not unlike covid days once again. Not awesome.
 
Patrick said:
Half of AC failed. When it was good, it was good. Predates casinos on native American land.
It changed everything.

Businesses fail, some succeed. Don't point to failures when he is still a multi-millionaire.
Sure, you can say he lost his investor's money - but they don't invest without a track record of returns.

I don't like the "we are going this way" without discourse. Sure, he was elected to make decisions.
Big decisions that will have significant short term impacts may be something that should have a ramp?????

oh, and Elon - he thinks the majority is behind him because of logic (meaning everyone must agree with him) - guess again.
Actions always have unanticipated consequences. I'm fairly sure if I was working in a think tank for him,
I could have predicted that heavy political action would have an adverse effect on his businesses.

Bezos is timing his release of satellite internet perfectly....

I'm still in the position that we can't judge it in real time. I don't know what the end game is??
Sure, it is messing with me. I'm not selling anything because I set up a high yield portfolio -
what I'm missing is reinvesting at the lower cost. Timing. so be it.
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So, I thought it was known that Donald inherited his wealth from his father and basically invested it in the s&p? The returns are consistent with that minus the100% increase in net worth in the last 3 months(he pump and dumped the Trump coin). He's a billionaire btw, not a multi millionaire. Here is a cool site to track realtime net worth...https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#798312843d78. Here is a problem I have. Tesla is Elon's bread and butter. Tesla share price at close the day before elections $255, then 6 weeks later $488 and now back below $255. Elon's net worth in those same time frames... $264 billion, $475 billion, $378 billion....hmm, the Tesla stock price is lower than it was before Election Day yet Elon's wealth is $112 billion more. Sounds like a pump and dump to me. This is how scumbag billionaires get super rich because all the average Joe does is accumulate in their 401k, rarely ever buying lows and selling the highs. And now average Joe is stuck holding a $488 Tesla bag that is now worth $250.
 
scott62 said:
Did the 1929 and 2008 market crashes happen in one day? It is my opinion the market has no idea how fuct it is. Things are going to go into a whole feed back loop. Prices go up, people buy less, jobs are lost and repeat…..
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I disagree. I think we may retest the previous math on s&p at 4800ish but that is a stretch. I'm feeling the next day or two is the bottom for now(could be wrong but watch volume for a bottom). This doesn't take away from me thinking Trump is a pos.
 
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