Tariffs...what to make of them.
- Thread starter Dave Taylor
- Start date
rjr44
Well-Known Member
I'm not directly answering your question because I'm no economist, so I'm not going to get over my skis here, but there are so many variables at play that it's hard to determine the long-term impacts.
For example, no one likes lower stock market prices, but has anyone noticed the drop in interest rates? Haven't heard a mention. Consumers usually prefer lower rates to high. Did anyone notice the dollar index is down close to 8%-ish? Lower dollar means foreign countries can buy more of our goods, potentially reducing some of the trade deficit. Which I think is one of his primary drivers, more money coming in from the outside.
The above doesn't suggest I agree with/ his policies; again, I'm not smart enough to evaluate all these macro scenarios and tell you what the future will look like. Higher consumer prices here suck, no argument.
My main argument is there are MANY variables at play here, and we won't know for years if this is a short term pain for long term gain scenario or a disaster. I know most think the latter. If you think you know for sure, like I've been saying, put your money where your mouth is and you'll make a killing if you're right.
And disclaimer if it's not obvious, I'm only talking from the investing angle. Not talking about someone w/ no money in the market or only in 401k passively managed, etc. Yes, higher prices suck for everyone except those for whom price is no object.
How long will it take to bring significant manufacturing back to the US? 4 or 5 years from what I've read. If the economy tanks for that long the Dems will end up back in control by then. Free trade will begin again and this is all for what?
JDurk
Well-Known Member
I've ignored this thread, so caught up a bit before logging in. Have been in manufacturing for 33+ yrs, specifically metal fabrication, and been at my current employer for 21yrs.
4 or 5 years seems like a long shot to me. Skilled workers are very hard to find. Nobody wants to get their hands dirty anymore. We don't build rockets here and are far from high tech when talking about our machinery. We've hired some new employees over the last 2yrs, but the good one's leave. We had 1 that left to sell shit on Ebay and be an IG Influencer. Seriously. When asked how much he felt he was worth to keep him here, $250k was his answer. Speaking machinery, most machine tools and equipment are made overseas. So how does a manufacturer see a ROI for equipment that's now more expensive and nobody to run it?
It's going to be a difficult long road. We're already seeing costs going up, even higher than COVID days, and supplier lead-times getting longer.
Steve Vai
Endurance Guy: Tolerates most of us.
Even MAGA die hards don’t buy American so moving manufacturing here would be a huge waste.
Additionally that 4 or 5 years won’t start until the companies decide it’s necessary. They’d be crazy to do anything now knowing trump keeps saying this is also good for negotiating.
Even all the crap that trump sells is mostly made in china and India.
Think of all the companies that made huge decisions based on the Trump 1.0 Mexico/Canada/US trade agreements that are now screwed. Crazy.
Steve Vai
Endurance Guy: Tolerates most of us.
Like the $10,000 fake Les Pauls 😂
thegock
Well-Known Member
I listen to Mad Money on DVR about half the time. Not because I agree with picking stonks, but cuz he's entertaining.
This morning his manic take on tariffs was: "We're going to bring back the sock industry?" Made his co-host mildly uncomfortable.
MMuller
Well-Known Member
My FB post yesterday.
trump is living in some sort of idealistic post-WWll 50s America, where we ruled the world, politically, culturally and of course industrially, because we were the only ones left standing after Europe and Asia were bombed into rubble.
But this is the 21st century. The world has evolved in every way, for better and for worse. A reality is that the US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Germany, Japan and all of Asia have rebuilt. We are consumers. Americans don't want to work in factories or corn fields. With automation, robotics, and now AI humans don't have to work in factories.
There is no going back to when trump used to watch Roy Rodgers on a US made TV. Think of the world, the global market, as a human body, where every organ has its specific role in making the whole body work. Let's be presumptuous and call ourselves the brain. The brain can't command the liver to suddenly start pumping blood or the thyroid to start breathing no matter what it "thinks" or wants.
Listen to Woody's lyrics. These are the industries of old that trump is pining for. This is the America his daddy told him of. These are the jobs that great Americans had, and labored in to make America great. There are literally none of these jobs anymore, 100 years later. And 100 years from now the song will be yet another new one of an America we can't even image today, in the anatomy of our world.
trump is living in some sort of idealistic post-WWll 50s America, where we ruled the world, politically, culturally and of course industrially, because we were the only ones left standing after Europe and Asia were bombed into rubble.
But this is the 21st century. The world has evolved in every way, for better and for worse. A reality is that the US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Germany, Japan and all of Asia have rebuilt. We are consumers. Americans don't want to work in factories or corn fields. With automation, robotics, and now AI humans don't have to work in factories.
There is no going back to when trump used to watch Roy Rodgers on a US made TV. Think of the world, the global market, as a human body, where every organ has its specific role in making the whole body work. Let's be presumptuous and call ourselves the brain. The brain can't command the liver to suddenly start pumping blood or the thyroid to start breathing no matter what it "thinks" or wants.
Listen to Woody's lyrics. These are the industries of old that trump is pining for. This is the America his daddy told him of. These are the jobs that great Americans had, and labored in to make America great. There are literally none of these jobs anymore, 100 years later. And 100 years from now the song will be yet another new one of an America we can't even image today, in the anatomy of our world.
John the Plumber
Well-Known Member
Watched Cramer this morning but 1 thing stuck in my head was after the 08 banking crisis it took about 5 years to get your money back. Now I don’t pick stocks, so it was your 401 k that took that much time bc you are in it over a longer time period. Now if you’re closer to 70 it’s harder. For me and my wife will cut back on spending no new cars only purchases when things break. Spending less for eating out and no new bikes. But I am thinking in May I might be able to sell a couple of my older bikes instead of just holding onto them. I did sell bikes during Covid. Just thinking about opportunities no tariffs on used stuff.
That's where his third term comes in. Brilliant!
rjr44
Well-Known Member
haha I don't watch or listen to the guy, but when I hear about big calls he makes, historically, I've made lots of money fading him...I'm not doing anything w/ this call of his other than watching for the entertainment value if he again is wrong as I'm comfortable w/ my positioning at the moment
I think I said I don't know the plan?
Is it a big gambit? What are the goals?
How about he abolish OSHA?
That should bring the costs down.
Tort reform?
