This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

GSTim said:
The point is once the curve is flattened, how flat do we need it? Until we have a vaccine assume that everyone will eventually get it. Do we need modified behaviors anymore?
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Even with modified behaviors, we continue to see about 1,000 deaths per day. I guess 'we' have decided that's OK.

The virus is still there. Consider this: the NJ stay at home order came out March 21. There were 440 new cases reported that day (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-jersey-coronavirus-cases.html). 2 weeks later, NJ peaked at 4,000 cases/day for a couple days then averaged about 3000/day for 3 weeks. Yesterday, 299 cases were reported. With considerably more testing, that 299 is probably closer to correct than 440 was March 21 but it's still plenty to get the party rolling again (March 18 was 308) if everyone went back to normal.

Most people won't return to normal though, IMHO. I've said this before - if the company you work for is telling you to stay home because they prefer you don't die, I think most people will take that as an indicator that maybe they should stay away from others. Wells Fargo is telling their people they're not opening anything until September and then it's only essential traders. Their 'stage 3' return just about requires a vaccine. Apple is letting a few people come back who can't fully work from home like my friend who works in a battery lab. My own company is planning initially to limit to 30% occupancy at any given site later this month with one person per office and a 10 person limit on meetings with distancing rules, etc.
 
mfennell said:
Even with modified behaviors, we continue to see about 1,000 deaths per day. I guess 'we' have decided that's OK.

The virus is still there. Consider this: the NJ stay at home order came out March 21. There were 440 new cases reported that day (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-jersey-coronavirus-cases.html). 2 weeks later, NJ peaked at 4,000 cases/day for a couple days then averaged about 3000/day for 3 weeks. Yesterday, 299 cases were reported. With considerably more testing, that 299 is probably closer to correct than 440 was March 21 but it's still plenty to get the party rolling again (March 18 was 308) if everyone went back to normal.

Most people won't return to normal though, IMHO. I've said this before - if the company you work for is telling you to stay home because they prefer you don't die, I think most people will take that as an indicator that maybe they should stay away from others. Wells Fargo is telling their people they're not opening anything until September and then it's only essential traders. Their 'stage 3' return just about requires a vaccine. Apple is letting a few people come back who can't fully work from home like my friend who works in a battery lab. My own company is planning initially to limit to 30% occupancy at any given site later this month with one person per office and a 10 person limit on meetings with distancing rules, etc.
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That's my point, until we get the vaccine the virus will spread until everyone gets it. If you want to wait for the vaccine then we are going to be quarantined for 10-12 more months. If you're ok with that then fine, stay home. But even with a vaccine there are still going to be deaths due to Covid, there are still deaths due to the flu, correct?
 
Patrick said:
California - Seems like LA and Riverside co (just east) missed the memo
accounting for 50% of daily new.

www.worldometers.info

California COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

California COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info



View attachment 131273
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LA and other large cities will get worse

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/milita...nal-guardsmen-test-positive-covid-19-n1228726
 
mfennell said:
Even with modified behaviors, we continue to see about 1,000 deaths per day. I guess 'we' have decided that's OK.
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Who says it's "OK"? It is what it is, and alot better than the 2.5K deaths/ day at the peak. Did anyone expect lockdowns to continue until there are 0 deaths/day?

And regarding large corporations, I worked for one for over 30 years. They are extremely risk averse - no surprise they will be overly cautious with returning to normal.
 
GSTim said:
there are still deaths due to the flu
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there are many strains of flu - the "shot" is a short term immunity (6 months?) against the ones they think are going to spike.

nothing is 100% - number of flu deaths are modeled, not confirmed. For shock value, the high number is quoted when comparing to coronavirus.
lots of stuff on the cdc site.
 
Patrick said:
there are many strains of flu - the "shot" is a short term immunity (6 months?) against the ones they think are going to spike.

nothing is 100% - number of flu deaths are modeled, not confirmed. For shock value, the high number is quoted when comparing to coronavirus.
lots of stuff on the cdc site.
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True but there are some significant number every year, right? Do we know that the same thing with strains won't happen with Corona? What then?
 
GSTim said:
True but there are some significant number every year, right? Do we know that the same thing with strains won't happen with Corona? What then?
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deaths are here - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html - lookls roughly 30,000-40,000 estimated mean.

It can, and does mutate - see SARS and MERS. Hopefully it mutates itself out of existance.

This one is more easily transmitted, has a longer incubation/infectious time. Hopefully doesn't happen again for another 100 years.
 
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So after much debate we've cancelled a trip to California which was planned for late August. My take was partially open/spike in cases/who knows where we'll be in Aug....

We are still planning to get away just not via airplane/hotel. We'll be at Killington for July 4th, camping, riding, hiking, etc.. will bring a lot of out own food stuff but also open to outdoor dining/drinks.

Anyone else rethinking summer plans due to C19?
 
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We got our refund check for the family week in Ocean City, NJ this week.

Kind of bummed.
BAD KITTY IMG_20190730_081553-01.jpg

Was looking forward to fat biking the morning beach and boardwalk, and latte.
 
Norm said:
Yeah we did but we plan to do a road trip instead.

That said, the way these numbers are going, NJ is gonna be one of the safer places to be real soon. Kinda ironic, isn’t it Ren?
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Went to dicks to get my son a helmet, whole families were there, we'll be back where we were a month and a half ago
 
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Zaskar said:
So after much debate we've cancelled a trip to California which was planned for late August. My take was partially open/spike in cases/who knows where we'll be in Aug....

Anyone else rethinking summer plans due to C19?
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I am off 6/19 to 7/6. I had A TON of things planned for the family but its going to be bike rides for curb side coffee and other at home stuff. Its cool... small sacrifice.
 
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