This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
ilnadi
Well-Known Member
been avoiding this thread, nothing against it or the posts but there is enough stress without being reminded again.
but for f**k's sake shit's getting real.
looking at the latest Johns Hopkins numbers; US is ranked 3rd in cases and 6th in deaths.
In cases, NY state would rank as the 6th country in the world (NJ would be the 14th country)
Not sure what people are waiting for to take this seriously.
Now translating all that to per-capita and mortality rates, it ain't that bad
But [nerd alert] we are still on a positive second derivative; i.e. daily increase is increasing
I think we are in a manageable state but gotta manage.
if you want to see how Germany got those rates, read up on what they did before they had a single case.
now I am going to go watch woodworking and car crashes on youtube and eat pistachios so I can sleep
but for f**k's sake shit's getting real.
looking at the latest Johns Hopkins numbers; US is ranked 3rd in cases and 6th in deaths.
In cases, NY state would rank as the 6th country in the world (NJ would be the 14th country)
Not sure what people are waiting for to take this seriously.
Now translating all that to per-capita and mortality rates, it ain't that bad
But [nerd alert] we are still on a positive second derivative; i.e. daily increase is increasing
I think we are in a manageable state but gotta manage.
if you want to see how Germany got those rates, read up on what they did before they had a single case.
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now I am going to go watch woodworking and car crashes on youtube and eat pistachios so I can sleep
thegock
Well-Known Member
2008 story
Guy I am riding with is flatted at Top of the World and I was walking down to meet his wife with me rolling alongside. We start to talk about his employer, AIG. He says to me after a few minutes that they should have kept his unit intact because they were the best people.
Roadie of course.
Best math I have seen in this thread.
Seriously.
thegock
Well-Known Member
I am happy that people are talking about science and math on the board. It is very informative and entertaining. This should be exponentially more interesting now that we are discussing fiscal and monetary policies. Talking to a wingman friend of mine Saturday, and he said "Well, as you probably know, I was never good in math..." I told him that I loved him, but now the breaux hug from "Tommy Boy" has fallen out of fashion.
Want to hear more from health care providers, one of whom told me that there is not enough protective equipment.
The only thing I look at now are the death numbers. Maybe one of you math geniuses out there can tell us what the trend means? My concern stems from looking at this thread at its 2/28/20 starting with one case and reading up on "simulitis."
Want to hear more from health care providers, one of whom told me that there is not enough protective equipment.
The only thing I look at now are the death numbers. Maybe one of you math geniuses out there can tell us what the trend means? My concern stems from looking at this thread at its 2/28/20 starting with one case and reading up on "simulitis."
Are you really first hearing that there is not enough protective equipment for health care workers? That's a lot of drinking. Maybe a bit too much.
On a lighter note. One of my son's friends was on his Zoom online class yesterday when one of the other students got up and walked around his room totally naked for two minutes while everyone else ROFL. Must of turned of the speaker, not the camera so didn't hear everyone.
Of course it was videoed and is probably all over Pitt and beyond.
Of course it was videoed and is probably all over Pitt and beyond.
Mahnken
Well-Known Member
My hospital is up to using one n95 for 7 days. Before covid, when n95's were warranted, you would be required to throw it in the trash before entering the hallway from the patients room (you could get fired for wearing one outside the patients room). When covid came the quickly went to one per shift, now they are up to using the same mask for up to 7 days. They are running out fast. I told my manager on January 24th that she should stock up on n95's. She didn't listen.
rick81721
Lothar
Per capita numbers are what's relevant, not raw numbers. It's going to take two weeks to really see the effects of social distancing. Yes, NY is really bad, but even there, the death rate is less than 1%. Keep watching CA and WA. CA only had 9 deaths over the last 5 days, WA had 29. Both states are seeing new cases stabilized at 200 per day
It seems like this virus isn't that deadly for most people, provided you can get the treatment you need. I suspect the death rate is higher in other places because the hospitals were overrun and people couldn't get treatment. I just saw on google news local that our town just had our first death due to the virus, an 88 year old woman.
rick81721
Lothar
Here's an article on why NY is so different from LA:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-crowds-density.html
Until they close all the bridges and tunnels it's hard to ignore based on where we live.
Jmann
Never gonna let you down.
In the last week I’ve been busy, bouncing around at several hospitals, as they are opening up unused areas or turning regular patient rooms into isolation rooms. Besides the impending shortage of ventilators, a big concern that I have is that most hospital’s medical air systems are undersized or ancient. Normally a hospital only has max a half dozen ventilators running at once, and the blenders in the nicu. Hospitals are asking us how many ventilators they could theoretically run, which is really difficult to answer (because of pipe length and size spread out over the entire hospital, and pumps not designed for the demand). Some systems are only duplex, so if one pump or motor goes, there is only one pump running while the other is being serviced. With high demand the lone pump would burn out quickly. Leaving no other options.
Granted we have brought up these concerns to hospitals in the past, but directors know they aren’t getting a bonus if they spend 100k on a new air system.
Granted we have brought up these concerns to hospitals in the past, but directors know they aren’t getting a bonus if they spend 100k on a new air system.
My wife says she doesnt think so....she has to work at 10 today, so she'll find out.....As I recall, they got extra pay if we are in a state of emergency, so you would think they should.
i see the same doubling/4-days happening in other states, they are just behind on the timeline.
This does give them the advantage of doing something now - but will they? can they act when the number is around 100? 200?
rhetorical of course, don't want this confused with ANT
From a positive testing standpoint. Based on tests administered:
NYC is 28% positive
Everyone else 8%
The rates are just higher in NYC. This was reported out last night.
Tests don't cause the virus.
rick81721
Lothar
CA and WA are ahead of the timeline and acted sooner than NY
I think you’re intentionally ignoring population density because it doesn’t fit your model.