This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Hopefully, they have peaked.

But, l think the more interesting question is what the cumulative body count will be. The theoretical answer would mean extrapolating the daily death curve out to the right, then measuring the cumulative number. This is a bit beyond my limited math skillz, howevah, it should be a snap for Dr @Monkey Soup

He got this. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 
So I saw some weird stuff on the internet and wanted to ask the experts here.

The daily death totals that Gov Murphy is releasing makes it seem like those deaths all occurred since the last reporting. (At least that is my interpretation)
I saw somewhere that may not actually be the case and those totals are from previous deaths that were since classified as Covid related. Is there any truth to this or is this just people trying to lessen the seriousness of the current situation?
 
jShort said:
So I saw some weird stuff on the internet and wanted to ask the experts here.

The daily death totals that Gov Murphy is releasing makes it seem like those deaths all occurred since the last reporting. (At least that is my interpretation)
I saw somewhere that may not actually be the case and those totals are from previous deaths that were since classified as Covid related. Is there any truth to this or is this just people trying to lessen the seriousness of the current situation?
Click to expand...

All states report deaths per day as when they hit the DOH, not when it actually occurred. For example, see Florida's dashboard. They keep a count of deaths on day it actually happened in the lower right - totals don't change, it just smooths out the graph. So far, the highest one day total is 112:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
 
thegock said:
Hopefully, they have peaked.

But, l think the more interesting question is what the cumulative body count will be. The theoretical answer would mean extrapolating the daily death curve out to the right, then measuring the cumulative number. This is a bit beyond my limited math skillz, howevah, it should be a snap for Dr @Monkey Soup

He got this. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Click to expand...

I would guess Florida will see a few peaks over 200 in the next 1-2 weeks, then will decline. Note 200 in Florida is equivalent to 90 in NJ.
 
thegock said:
Hopefully, they have peaked.

But, l think the more interesting question is what the cumulative body count will be. The theoretical answer would mean extrapolating the daily death curve out to the right, then measuring the cumulative number. This is a bit beyond my limited math skillz, howevah, it should be a snap for Dr @Monkey Soup

He got this. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Click to expand...

It’s cute that you think I actually give a shit. Why don’t your limited math skillz, use Google, and give it a shot. Get those sausage fingers moving.
 
Norm said:
Mostly correct. However you forgot a few key points:

* Daily phase of total disbelief that school is still a thing when the kids wake up every day
* Endless complaints from pretty much anyone with a social media account, both for and against, pretty much anything school-related
* Kids at school approximately enough time to go home and sniff an entire can of paint thinner before needing to return to pick them up
* Daily realization that absolutely 0.0 was done at school and the remainder of the work needs to be done at home
* The false sense of home now being a "schoolwork free zone" by the kids

My predicted timeline:

~9/1: Schools open
~10/1: Schools close
~12/1: Plan emerges to roll out vaccine
~2/1: Kids back in school for real
~3/1: Just like a traffic jam, the moment it is over we will all forget this relatively minor inconvenience
~4/1: Social media accounts now full of some other inane nonsense that has nothing to do with Coronavirus nor murder hornets
Click to expand...

I guess I should find a gig to let me wfh for ever now
 
rick81721 said:
I would guess Florida will see a few peaks over 200 in the next 1-2 weeks, then will decline. Note 200 in Florida is equivalent to 90 in NJ.
Click to expand...
I'd be really surprised if they don't see at least a few days over 400. Basing this on no actual data again, but I was spot on last time. Of course, goes without saying, I'd prefer if you were right.
 
Mahnken said:
I'd be really surprised if they don't see at least a few days over 400. Basing this on no actual data again, but I was spot on last time. Of course, goes without saying, I'd prefer if you were right.
Click to expand...

You were spot on about what? That deaths would go up? No one thought otherwise, that I recall. In any event, I'm basing the 200+ on the peak of new cases being 4 weeks ago, which is why I expect some increases for another 1-2 weeks.
 
Monkey Soup said:
e
It’s cute that you think I actually give a shit. Why don’t your limited math skillz, use Google, and give it a shot. Get those sausage fingers moving.
Click to expand...

Great, Monkey (now that we have been on a first name basis for like almost ever)

I see that you haven't told us where your Ph.D is from (Biochemistry with a concentration in what?) But, we will get back to that shortly.

I am struggling along without a Doctorate, so I thought you might want to pitch in with some of the heavy lifting. Just want a build out of the right side of the death curve in Florida and I thought someone with your extensive qualifications would find this a piece of cake. Aight?

2011-06-24_19-27-27_592.jpg

Now those are some fat fingers...
 
rick81721 said:
You were spot on about what? That deaths would go up? No one thought otherwise, that I recall. In any event, I'm basing the 200+ on the peak of new cases being 4 weeks ago, which is why I expect some increases for another 1-2 weeks.
Click to expand...
I said the deaths would lag behind cases 5-6 weeks, which is when they indeed started to rise after the surge started. Some seemed to be stuck on a two week lag time. I'm thinking the highest death days will be above 400, probably as high as 500 or 600. Again, based on no rational data ?.
 
Not picking on Florida here - just that I was able to find the data.

Unfortunately, they don't publish this by date - it would in interesting to see the change in age demographic over time.


1595767903718.png

so a quick look of the totals says
- 26% of the cases are 55 and older.
- 93% of the deaths come from that age range.

Looking at the population distribution in Florida -
it looks like 37% are 55+ http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/Pop_Census_Day.pdf

i'd also guess the median age in Miami-Dade is lower than general FLA, so it probably should be drilled down a bit.

so 3/4 of the cases are coming from 2/3 of the population resulting in 7% of the deaths. (rounding like a boss)

The temporal chart would be useful, some sort of stacked bar with the ratio of cases by age over time.
The premise is that the current spike is among the younger crowd - (IMHO?)
The next level is the co-morbidity numbers - of the 7%, how many had other risk factors?

Given the number of cases, can the older demographic remain insulated?
 
Patrick said:
Not picking on Florida here - just that I was able to find the data.

Unfortunately, they don't publish this by date - it would in interesting to see the change in age demographic over time.


View attachment 135346

so a quick look of the totals says
- 26% of the cases are 55 and older.
- 93% of the deaths come from that age range.

Looking at the population distribution in Florida -
it looks like 37% are 55+ http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/Pop_Census_Day.pdf

i'd also guess the median age in Miami-Dade is lower than general FLA, so it probably should be drilled down a bit.

so 3/4 of the cases are coming from 2/3 of the population resulting in 7% of the deaths. (rounding like a boss)

The temporal chart would be useful, some sort of stacked bar with the ratio of cases by age over time.
The premise is that the current spike is among the younger crowd - (IMHO?)
The next level is the co-morbidity numbers - of the 7%, how many had other risk factors?

Given the number of cases, can the older demographic remain insulated?
Click to expand...

I found the same data set from apr 23. At that point, 37% of cases were between 15 and 44, now it's 52%. Tho back then, they were only testing symptomatics.

Looking at NJ covid demographics, they use different age groups, but it looks like at least 10% more of their total cases were 55 or older vs FL.
 
Patrick said:
The temporal chart would be useful, some sort of stacked bar with the ratio of cases by age over time.
The premise is that the current spike is among the younger crowd - (IMHO?)
The next level is the co-morbidity numbers - of the 7%, how many had other risk factors?

Given the number of cases, can the older demographic remain insulated?
Click to expand...

Seems difficult to find statewide data on comorbidities and deaths. I did find one Florida county posting a total of 80+ deaths, ages ranged from 43 to 90+ and every one had a comorbidity. CDC says as of their latest data, 94% of all deaths in the US had comorbidities.

Here is an interesting paper, they used data across countries and states thru June 17.

"People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7–3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico. "

This is sad for NJ:

" The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey)"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7327471/
 
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