This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

picture better than words.

figure out your favorite "death trails cases by" number, and have at it.

data sourced from worldometers at their "end of day" 0000gmt. so actual state data could be shifted by a few hours.

1595950529777.png
 
thegock said:
From today:

Florida’s two day decline in rolling 7 day deaths reversed this morning. 184 deaths reported today is their highest total of the crisis. Rolling 7 day total and 7 day moving average of 910 and 130 are also new highs.

Need to see what 7DMA looks like next Tuesday.
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Yep, still expect a few days over 200. Watching new cases more than deaths - the 7 day MA of new cases is definitely heading down. And even deaths, the 7dma went from 45 to 114 in 2 weeks from Jul 4 to Jul 20, significantly slowed since then. My guess is it will start to trend down by the end of next week.
 
Patrick said:
picture better than words.

figure out your favorite "death trails cases by" number, and have at it.

data sourced from worldometers at their "end of day" 0000gmt. so actual state data could be shifted by a few hours.

View attachment 135577
Click to expand...

The top graph is misleading, which is why there doesn't appear to be much lag between cases increase and deaths. I think @Mahnken is right, it's more like 4-6 weeks. I've been tracking Florida cases on a normalized basis, as just looking at raw cases/day doesn't tell the real story. Most important number is % positive. Raw numbers are testing volume dependent - so I've normalized FL at 70K tests/day going all the way back to March. The cases/day graph looks like this:

1595960600316.png

A peak in early April, then with mitigation, drops to early May. With re-opening, cases start to increase, with the largest increase from Jun 4 to Jun 24. Plateaued there for about 4 weeks and now declining. Looking at deaths, the largest increase in deaths (7 day moving ave) was Jul 4 to Jul 21, exactly one month after the large increase in new cases.
 
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Not sure anyone noticed but Yahoo got rid of their comments section on the news feed. Luckily this thread still exists for my entertainment, especially when on the bowl. Carry on.
 
Thursday is historically the peak day for reported deaths in Florida. Today a new high of 253. Today is also 5 weeks from the peak of new cases/day, so hopefully this is the peak week for deaths. Will see what happens next thursday.
 
rick81721 said:
Thursday is historically the peak day for reported deaths in Florida. Today a new high of 253. Today is also 5 weeks from the peak of new cases/day, so hopefully this is the peak week for deaths. Will see what happens next thursday.
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Don't see that happening. 257 deaths today.

The state has closed down all state-sponsored test sites as of Thursday evening due to Hurricane Isaias so next week is going to look super low.
 
cassinonorth said:
Don't see that happening. 257 deaths today.

The state has closed down all state-sponsored test sites as of Thursday evening due to Hurricane Isaias so next week is going to look super low.
Click to expand...

We will see next week - the peak is either this week or next. New cases/day continue to decline - almost at the 10% positive threshold, but still have to get below 5%. But yeah, case data next week will be sketchy.
 
Heard on the radio the other day that a dog that tested positive for CV19, has died
But unclear if the death is due to CV19
 
Seems like every state that brags about “we did it best In reducing cases gets a big surge a few weeks later 🤔 coincidence?
 
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