Zaskar
Well-Known Member
So far so good.... Watched a bit of each the Yankee games this weekend. Not really missing the crowds in the seats.
Last edited:
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
So far so good.... Watched a bit of each the Yankee games this weekend. Not really missing the crowds in the seats.
thegock
Well-Known Member
Things have slowed down at the widget factory, so I did the homework for you, son:
Post 4,017 on 4/30/20
"This would be crazy fast, but things are definitely moving at an unprecedented pace for vaccines
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-september-oxford-university/ "
rick81721
Lothar
So I posted a link and said it would be crazy fast. Where did I say we would have one by September? I'll still say by year end for us.
In other vaccine news, looks like Russia will start inoculating in october:
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...production-september-criticized-rushed-2020-8
And India is starting production of the Oxford/AZ vaccine right now in a gamble it will be safe and effective:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/01/world/asia/coronavirus-vaccine-india.html
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
Sure, you can start production now if you don't worry or care about pesky little things like efficacy or safety.
rick81721
Lothar
Eh it's only a billion $ bet!
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
A bet is the best way to describe this, given their track record for GMPs. An injectable that is not FDA approved will never be sold here. Same in Europe with their health authorities.
rick81721
Lothar
It's funny how the resident covid gloom-and-doomers turn into crickets whenever there is good news. So in Florida, we've now had 4 out of the last 5 days at lower daily deaths than last week. And today, which is historically the highest day of the week, it was 120, less than half last week. Unless something crazy gets reported tomorrow, the peak in deaths/day was last week, which makes sense as it was exactly 5 weeks after the peak in new cases.
Onto new cases, the last few days of data were skewed due to test site shutdowns from the hurricane, but today is the first day of above average testing reported, and the new cases and positivity rate is way down. All key counties are back to typical test numbers - Miami/Dade is the only big county now with positive test rate above 10%. The most deaths reported were in Orange county (Orlando). Based on my graph, Florida is back to where we were (from new cases/day) in mid-June. If the trends continue, we will be back under 5% positive (pre-reopening) by september 1.
Onto new cases, the last few days of data were skewed due to test site shutdowns from the hurricane, but today is the first day of above average testing reported, and the new cases and positivity rate is way down. All key counties are back to typical test numbers - Miami/Dade is the only big county now with positive test rate above 10%. The most deaths reported were in Orange county (Orlando). Based on my graph, Florida is back to where we were (from new cases/day) in mid-June. If the trends continue, we will be back under 5% positive (pre-reopening) by september 1.
rick81721
Lothar
Onto vaccine news - Pfizer is recruiting for their phase 3 clinical trials. I went through the first two qualification steps and would have done it but the logistics don't work for me. The closest testing site is SUNY in Albany, about 150 mile drive. I was willing to do that several times, but this is the schedule you have to agree to, and there is no option for checking in at alternative sites throughout the study.
It's a 2 year study, and requires 7 visits to the same test site: 1st vaccination, 2nd vaccination 23 days later, then followups at 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years. Since we will be in Florida during the 3 and 6 month checkpoints, I couldn't do it. Double blind placebo controlled study, so you have a 50% chance of getting the actual vaccine. I assume there is monetary compensation but didn't get that far.
If anyone is interested, here is how to get started:
https://www.covidvaccinestudy.com/
It's a 2 year study, and requires 7 visits to the same test site: 1st vaccination, 2nd vaccination 23 days later, then followups at 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years. Since we will be in Florida during the 3 and 6 month checkpoints, I couldn't do it. Double blind placebo controlled study, so you have a 50% chance of getting the actual vaccine. I assume there is monetary compensation but didn't get that far.
If anyone is interested, here is how to get started:
https://www.covidvaccinestudy.com/
I think the numbers are going to start going back up everywhere once schools re-open. Even if we the keep the children home, colleges are just a disaster waiting to happen. Not thrilled to be sending my son back this weekend.
Paul H
Fearless OOS Poser
Odd.... cuz doom and gloom fake news is talking about 300k dead by December.
Yup. Even current 160k deaths is a pretty gloomy state of affairs.
rick81721
Lothar
That is fake news. Assumes deaths continue nationally at over 1000 per day. Already trending down, I would expect we are back to 500 or less in another 4 to 6 weeks.
rick81721
Lothar
No clue about schools re-opening. How many are actually doing it? All I know is my son is still pissed that Rutgers is all on-line this fall.
rick81721
Lothar
Pfizer vaccine - "potential distribution in November". Note: Pfizer CEO's words:
https://boingboing.net/2020/08/06/pfizer-ceo-says-could-be-seeki.html
I thought we agreed to not put much stock in numbers that would be completely messed up by the hurricane that came through?
They're fudging the numbers either way. They're counting the same person testing negative as 2 tests so the amount of guaranteed negatives in their 100k/day limit is going up. That's why they look so good. They're almost at half of all tests they're performing...so yes, Florida's numbers are going to look like they're falling.
Look at that re-test number: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Am/pubchart?oid=1204106482&format=interactive
Rolling average of deaths is 166 for the last 7 days, 160 for 14 days and 131 for 30 days. Yeah, you should definitely be gloating.
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
This is actually a little scary, given where they are in their clinical trials. Exactly what are they basing efficacy on? The presence of antibodies? That doesn't exactly mean that it will prevent infection, its just a correlation. Whether you need a booster will depend on whether the vaccine is durable or not? On the mutation rate of the virus? Sounds like they really don't know shit about the virus, or the robustness of the bodies immune response to the vaccine. Just rushing something through is not always the correct answer, but since we already paid for it, we're probably going to get it whether it works well or not, keep your fingers and toes crossed.
Pitt is open and "planning" on a hybrid learning system until the eventual shutdown. Their current plan is to randomly test 400 students per day out of 33k. Not sure what that hopes to accomplish. Must be the Trump plan. Pittsburgh has 80k students coming back to town between all the Universities. I'm thinking shit show for sure. They are not the only city that will have thousands of students arriving this month. My wife made our son fill out his Advanced Directive this week. No joke.
rick81721
Lothar
Where did I put any stock in numbers during the hurricane shutdown? Death reports have nothing to do with that, only testing. Yesterday was the first day of full testing results, numbers and % positive significantly down. Today is the same.
Irrelevant - they have been doing this for months so day to day comparisons are valid.
Who's gloating? Just pointing out that the peak is well past in new cases/day, deaths are now dropping and should be back to pre-reopening levels in a month. Funny how you clowns hate to admit when you were wrong...