This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

rick81721 said:
Where did I put any stock in numbers during the hurricane shutdown? Death reports have nothing to do with that, only testing. Yesterday was the first day of full testing results, numbers and % positive significantly down. Today is the same.
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We're still seeing the effects of the hurricane shutdown. If administrators have a backlog of deaths to report it will take time to come through. This week was a wash to me even though deaths are still increasing.



rick81721 said:
Irrelevant - they have been doing this for months so day to day comparisons are valid.
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WHAT. How is that irrelevant? The fact that 40% are now re-tests rather than first time tests make the numbers guaranteed to go down assuming people need 2 negatives to return from quarantine. It is 100% relevant to the numbers.



rick81721 said:
Who's gloating? Just pointing out that the peak is well past in new cases/day, deaths are now dropping and should be back to pre-reopening levels in a month. Funny how you clowns hate to admit when you were wrong...
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You are 100% gloating. The fact you don't see that is hilarious. I didn't come here spouting shit when deaths hit 257 deaths/516 hospitalizations, but knew you would be. Clown is a funny word....I'd love to know what I was "wrong" about though. Not enough circuses.
 
They are also fudging the death numbers. If a covid positive patient dies of a stroke or heart attack, or some other things, it won't be counted as a covid death. Even though those are complications of covid.
I still think this week is a fluke, the daily deaths aren't going to start dropping that quickly.
 
cassinonorth said:
We're still seeing the effects of the hurricane shutdown. If administrators have a backlog of deaths to report it will take time to come through. This week was a wash to me even though deaths are still increasing.
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Lol do you know anything about Florida? That hurricane had virtually no impact. The only reason they shut down some testing sites (and btw they started reopening on monday) was because they are under huge tents and would blow away. How on earth would that have any impact on hospitals reporting deaths? Laughable.

cassinonorth said:
WHAT. How is that irrelevant? The fact that 40% are now re-tests rather than first time tests make the numbers guaranteed to go down assuming people need 2 negatives to return from quarantine. It is 100% relevant to the numbers.
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If that "change" happened during the last week you would have a point. It didn't and you don't.

cassinonorth said:
You are 100% gloating. The fact you don't see that is hilarious. I didn't come here spouting shit when deaths hit 257 deaths/516 hospitalizations, but knew you would be. Clown is a funny word....I'd love to know what I was "wrong" about though. Not enough circuses.
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It is very bizarre that someone reporting good news about covid is accused of gloating. For actual examples of gloating (and even worse, gloating about people dying), see your own posts:

July 9: "120 deaths today. ICU's are full. It's time to pay the piper for Florida."

July 31:

rick81721 said:
Thursday is historically the peak day for reported deaths in Florida. Today a new high of 253. Today is also 5 weeks from the peak of new cases/day, so hopefully this is the peak week for deaths. Will see what happens next thursday.
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"Don't see that happening. 257 deaths today. "

By the way, I was the first person to post about Florida's record high last thursday - unlike clowns like you, I post about good and bad news. And before you get your panties in a bunch, I've referred to myself as a "clown" on this board. Lighten up Francis!
 
Projections for C19

The link above is a forecast of the next five months of C19 in the US.

Once again, the takeaway is that I don't intuitively understand exponential math. The number of deaths projected is quite large.
 
thegock said:
Projections for C19

The link above is a forecast of the next five months of C19 in the US.

Once again, the takeaway is that I don't intuitively understand exponential math. The number of deaths projected is quite large.
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about 110 days until Dec 1 -
this looks more linear to get to the lower half of the scale - the "anti-maskers" are getting a load of press when they come
down with the sickness - so the pressure is on to mask up, keep distance, continue ban on high risk events (large indoor activities?)

school is the wildcard here?

scroll down the page a bit to the daily deaths - helps picture the scenario better than the end number (the process rather than the result?)

and you get exponential math, just throw a $ sign in front of it. 🙂
 
Mahnken said:
They are also fudging the death numbers. If a covid positive patient dies of a stroke or heart attack, or some other things, it won't be counted as a covid death. Even though those are complications of covid.
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Another "based on zero evidence" claim? The fact that a kid in his 20s who died in a motorcycle crash was originally coded as a covid death in Florida before a reporter found it (the state did change it) makes your claim highly unlikely.
 
Patrick said:
about 110 days until Dec 1 -
this looks more linear to get to the lower half of the scale - the "anti-maskers" are getting a load of press when they come
down with the sickness - so the pressure is on to mask up, keep distance, continue ban on high risk events (large indoor activities?)

school is the wildcard here?

scroll down the page a bit to the daily deaths - helps picture the scenario better than the end number (the process rather than the result?)

and you get exponential math, just throw a $ sign in front of it. 🙂
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These projections have ridiculous spreads, basically any outcome is within their scope. Seems to me it depends on whether the northeastern states like NY, NJ, MA will have a big second wave. I doubt it. IL is having a second wave but according to my friend who lives there (I have no idea if this is true), it's occurring in the southern rural areas. Chicago area is not growing. Which would make sense if my lower herd immunity theory is correct. Speaking of which, latest FL antibody data was released, the most recent 48K+ tests came back 16.5% positive, and brings Florida close to 20% average infection rate state-wide.
 
rick81721 said:
These projections have ridiculous spreads, basically any outcome is within their scope. Seems to me it depends on whether the northeastern states like NY, NJ, MA will have a big second wave. I doubt it. IL is having a second wave but according to my friend who lives there (I have no idea if this is true), it's occurring in the southern rural areas. Chicago area is not growing. Which would make sense if my lower herd immunity theory is correct. Speaking of which, latest FL antibody data was released, the most recent 48K+ tests came back 16.5% positive, and brings Florida close to 20% average infection rate state-wide.
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if the people self-select into the antibody test it can not be extrapolated to the population.
 
rick81721 said:
says who? as long as all demographics are properly represented, it doesn't matter
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they got the test because they considered themselves exposed/infected. This would over-represent the infected population.
It also only represents the people that can get to (or want to go to) a test site - even if they suspected that they were infected.

only way to extrapolate would be a random selection across regions/demographics.

where is @jmanic when we need him?
 
Patrick said:
they got the test because they considered themselves exposed/infected. This would over-represent the infected population.
It also only represents the people that can get to (or want to go to) a test site - even if they suspected that they were infected.
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That's an assumption. I got tested here in NJ not because I thought I was exposed, just curious. Also anyone donating blood is automatically tested for covid antibodies
 
rick81721 said:
That's an assumption. I got tested here in NJ not because I thought I was exposed, just curious. Also anyone donating blood is automatically tested for covid antibodies
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i'll stick with the only way to extrapolate is randomized selection.
 
Patrick said:
they got the test because they considered themselves exposed/infected. This would over-represent the infected population.
It also only represents the people that can get to (or want to go to) a test site - even if they suspected that they were infected.

only way to extrapolate would be a random selection across regions/demographics.

where is @jmanic when we need him?
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Isn't that same thing true for all Covid testing then? Mostly people that have symptoms or around others who tested positive are going to get tested. Not random at all.
 
GSTim said:
Isn't that same thing true for all Covid testing then? Mostly people that have symptoms or around others who tested positive are going to get tested. Not random at all.
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yes - then add constrained by the number of tests available, the positive rate isn't indicative of anything.
There is also the "multiple" test issue - getting tested a couple times to see if it has cleared - which muddy the results.

early on in NJ - there was a 30-40% positive rate - the patients were heavily vetted because of test capacity.
it didn't correlate to the population. so people were floored by the "horrible rate in NJ", and others were saying the number
of sick were going up only because of the tests.....neither was true.

also, (and i made this mistake) - extrapolating the death rate from early on was not a reliable indicator
of future deaths, or back-calculating into infection rates. As we've seen the deaths as a percentage of infected
drop substantially. (look at NY/NJ deaths compared to FLA/CA)
 
Patrick said:
only way to extrapolate would be a random selection across regions/demographics
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The closest we had to that was that early random testing in California(?)
I didn’t look too closely at the methods, but that was getting at what you’re thinking , and I agree.
 
rick81721 said:
Another "based on zero evidence" claim? The fact that a kid in his 20s who died in a motorcycle crash was originally coded as a covid death in Florida before a reporter found it (the state did change it) makes your claim highly unlikely.
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I can't find the article right now, but health systems were saying they weren't counting a lot of covid positive patients as covid deaths if they died of heart attack or stroke. And the death toll this year compared to last year is way higher than covid deaths being reported.
 
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