don't look, keep investing. 3 month fire sale!
How the hell are we supposed to retire?
- Thread starter rlb
- Start date
don't look, keep investing. 3 month fire sale!
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
Haha, buy buy buy thats our strategy
At this point, do we have a choice? I am feverishly hoping it bounces back like 2008, but man, it could be a fucking long time. I need a couple of valium, if anybody wants to send me a few! And, no I’m not kidding!
One of the forestry staff had recently told me that his retirement plan consists of a room full of collectable Lionel trains, still in their boxes. I thought that was funny. But now I'm starting to wonder if that is a good plan.
just kidding.
just kidding.
It always bounces back, but like you referenced, the question is what is the timeframe. And you're assuming we have hit the bottom, which we probably have not yet. An ideal situation would be a "V" bottom, but this may stay down for an extended period and flatten out for a while. The market does not like uncertainty, and there is a lot of that currently.
Fire Lord Jim
Well-Known Member
If you think this is the end of capitalism, then buy gold, ammo, and toilet paper. But if you think this is fear-based panic selling, then stocks are on sale. When to buy? No one knows. We dollar cost average on the way up, and we should dollar cost average on the way down. Waiting for the bottom to buy assumes you will be good at calling the bottom, when you just did such a lousy job of calling the top.
When will it bounce back? My crystal ball doesn't show a bounce. There is a real problem behind this panic. Societal response to Covid-19 is harming the economy. Schools, parades, conferences, parties are canceling in an economy that requires consumer spending and continual Federal Reserve coddling just to keep it pointed in the right direction. I suspect that we will all get this flu, and we will heal and get back to normal by summer. I don't imagine the economy will recover as quickly as our species will, and I suspect we will be looking at how panic brought down the economy for much longer.
When will it bounce back? My crystal ball doesn't show a bounce. There is a real problem behind this panic. Societal response to Covid-19 is harming the economy. Schools, parades, conferences, parties are canceling in an economy that requires consumer spending and continual Federal Reserve coddling just to keep it pointed in the right direction. I suspect that we will all get this flu, and we will heal and get back to normal by summer. I don't imagine the economy will recover as quickly as our species will, and I suspect we will be looking at how panic brought down the economy for much longer.
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thegock
Well-Known Member
Europe was 7% down this morning (as of 6am EDT is must be around lunch time there.) The move includes whatever positive impact tRump had on the market with the Friday dog and pony show, which occurred after the European close. US Futures down the CME 5% limit overnight. My guess is a Monday with a full circuit breaker limit of 13% drop in the US markets on the day. We all hope that I am wrong, of course.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
I agree. Ban on short selling coming soon.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
Let things happen and a “free market” will be a free market like it was intended. Where is that Livermore guy now?
there shall be no put without a foot!
Leave them open, leave the throttles in-place.
All different sorts of things are going to trigger - asset/liability ratios, stupid stuff like that - paper things.
uber rich don't like to lose money. so i can count on them to straighten it out for the rest of us.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
I’m not a finance guy but what I am doing personally is tryi g to ride the wave. I think we are oversold. We may have a rally until earnings start coming out next month. Then my mental bet is things will get clobbered. I am long real estate and banks right now. Only about 25% invested. Rest is in cash.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
I think immediately getting in cash isn’t neccessary but it doesn’t hurt to do so if you see a bounce higher. I don’t understand this thinking. Isn’t it better in uncertainity to cut a loss at say 15-20% than to potentially lose even more? The market always gives opportunity. I hesistate to call a bottom with so much of the unknown and I haven’t seen any real fear.
rick81721
Lothar
seriously? you go from stocks to cash now you lose 25% and have no chance to recoup when the market comes back. only makes sense if you are a gloom and doomed and think the world is ending, in that case, shouldn't be in the market at all. In the real world tho....
The only way you would go to cash is if you think the market is truly going to collapse. However, you mention you only have 25% invested anyways, so 75% of you saving is already "safe".