Discussion: Is cyclocross dying?

Pearl

Pearl

THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
I saw over the weekend that the numbers for the HPCX race in the 3/4 category were extremely low. 27!?

I went through and did some digging and try to answer the whole "is CX dying" question. I have no real idea where this is going, but figured someone would find it useful and interesting.

MAC Races. These usually have larger turnouts, all the way from DC to NY.

Cat 4 Nittany finishers by year Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 107/132
2013: 114/117
2014: 98/105
2015: 105/99
2016: 114/89

So this seemed solid, and it usually always is. Always was opening day in the northeast for CX.


Cat 4 Charm City finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 110/98
2013: 101/92
2014: 104/107
2015: 101/102

Second UCI race in MAC? Strong. Seems like the beginner fields are still stacked as ever with people. This is a good sign.

Cat 4 HPCX finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 65
2012: 79
2013: 88
2014: 78/89
2015: 84/57
2016: 78/70

Another UCI race that seems to get a ton of attention and the numbers add up still, or are constant.

My thoughts:
So it's safe to say that the Cat 4/5 fields are not really going anywhere, The numbers seem to be constant enough to not really make a huge impact.

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What about the next category up? The old killer B's, 2/3/4, which then changed to 3/4 2 years ago.

Cat 2/3/4 Nittany finishers by year Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 107/88
2013: 101/95
2014: 106/100
2015: 88/69 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 61/52

This was the first time I saw numbers low. From what I remember it was a pretty nice day, no reason to be missing out on the first (or second day of cross) in the MAC schedule. Strange. Part of me thinks this has to do with no more 2's in the race and are now either forced to A) race the UCI race or B) race somewhere else that day.

So lets look at Nittany UCI

UCI Nittany finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 39/42
2013: 49/47
2014: 39/39
2015: 61/54 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 52/55

My thoughts:
So it looks like we found some of those racers, they are in the UCI category. I think this was the goal from the MAC when they made this decision. Looks like a solid 10-15 person jump which would sort of even out the numbers from 2015, but does not answer the 2016 problem. 61/52 for Nittany versus 100+ from 2012-2014? Now as the year goes on you can expect the numbers to dip, lets see how much.

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Let's skip Charm City and go right to HPCX:

Cat 2/3/4 HPCX Finshers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 64
2012: 63
2013: 61
2014: 69/46
2015: 49/41 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 30/25

This stands out like a sore thumb for sure. 25 on Day 2? Day 2 always takes a hit by a couple of numbers, but 25 finishers for this race is alarming. Are they in the UCI race? Lets look:

UCI HPCX Finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 32
2012: 36
2013: 31
2014: 33/29
2015: 47/38 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 41/38

My thoughts:
Now I can't find those 2's that raced Nittany. where did they go? The numbers for the UCI race are higher than the were in the past, but not as much as they were at Nittany. From an average of 64 races from 2011-2014 day 1, to 38 racers from 2014 Day 2 to 2016, with only a ~12 person jump in the UCI category? This is interesting.

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I've already spent way too much time on this, but lets go to the NJ series. The most common race I could think of was the Westwood Velo race in NY. I will do it slightly different this time. There wasn't always a straight Cat 5 race.

Westwood Velo Finishers
Cat 5/ Cat 4 / Cat 3.

2011: N/A / 29 / 23 Total: 52
2012: N/A / 67 / 27 Total: 94
2013: 28 / 26 / 33 Total: 87
2014: 36 / 37 / 25 Total: 98
2015: 45 / 31 / 16 Total: 92

2013 had the largest Cat 3 field, while the Cat 5 numbers have gone up every year. The 3/4/5 numbers remained the same, but the 3's, where are they? Are the in the 1/2/3 race? Holy crap, I cant believe I'm still breaking this down:

Westwood Velo 1/2/3 Finishers, Day 1/Day 2.
2011: 12/13
2012: 24
2013: 23
2014: 17
2015: 17

My thoughts:
Now I know NJ races are not widely attended to begin with, but it seems like we lost even more people somewhere else. The 3/4/5 fields are still the same size, turning over new riders, upgrading riders or disappearing, but they are not in the 1/2/3 race. That "bubble" of newer, non 1/2/3 racers are not sticking around.

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I hope someone finds this interesting, maybe takes the time to appreciate it (not sure why I went that deep to begin with) and let me know what you think and how you can prove what you feel/think.

Now there are tons of variables for this, competing races in different regions, weather, turnover, etc. I just wanted to look just at the numbers. What are you thoughts?
 
oh, ill post this before someone else does:
85xjuds.gif
 
I think it's because there is no "middle ground" for the average racer to go. Look at your UCI class. Spike in the first year. Then this year it falls off because those guys at the back are thinking, "Man, why am I here?"

Do the same with the women's classes. Attendance it waning and to me that 3/4 class yesterday is on the verge of dying completely. The field is too spread out and many of those women looked flat-out miserable. A point to that is also that many of those girls were there for the collegiate race. So you take out the college girls, you're in a a dangerous spot.

Assignment for Pearl

NJ only:

What are the average numbers for the cat 4 women's class as compared to the 1/2/3 over those 5 years?
 
I heard this on the podcast, and know nothing about CX
can you estimate the % of racers who move up and drop out from each cat? Also, road cycling has not really resurrected it self from the Lance days. Which I assume some percentage are mostly roadies. can I assume road race attendances are trending similarly
 
Assignment #2 for Pearl

Mac-only.

Chart the 35+ and 45+ over the past 5 years.

I also think as the pointy end gets pointier, people want to race less. It's not fun to be in the best shape of your life and lose by 11:00 in a 40 minute race.
 
Norm said:
I think it's because there is no "middle ground" for the average racer to go. Look at your UCI class. Spike in the first year. Then this year it falls off because those guys at the back are thinking, "Man, why am I here?"
Click to expand...

Me. I did this. The jump from B to A is not an easy one and I think a lot of folks just lose interest. I actually really enjoy cross but haven't raced in years because there are so many things I'd rather be doing than getting lapped by Roger.
 
jimvreeland said:
Me. I did this. The jump from B to A is not an easy one and I think a lot of folks just lose interest. I actually really enjoy cross but haven't raced in years because there are so many things I'd rather be doing than getting lapped by Roger.
Click to expand...

I was going to post that the 4/5 fields seem to be as large as ever - but your numbers showed that to be true.

That being said I was chatting with someone at HPCX yesterday (Sunday) getting ready for the 4/5
and he said that it was likely going to be his last race - basically he was tired of being at the back of the pack. I don't know the guy but he looked like he had a clue - wasn't his first race or even first year in Cross. Basically sounded like he was just frustrated at his race basically being to avoid getting lapped.

I still love cross - it's actually the only time I pin a number on to race my bike. I must admit though I wonder how long I'll flounder along in Cat 4. I look at where I am and how much of a jump it would be for me to get to the pointy end of the 4's in order to be able to earn an upgrade and I honestly question how much longer it will still be fun. I realistically know that I would get absolutely slaughtered in Cat 3 - if I am even able to upgrade but the lack of possible progression does dampen my enthusiasm.

I plan on racing cross for years to come - I have a little double weekend cross hangover and know by Wed I'll be itching to race again so I certainly hope that Pearl's premonition that Cross is dying isn't true.
 
NJ Westwood Womens Cat 4 vs 1/2/3

Cat 4 / 1/2/3
2011 Day 1: 9 / 2 (AO and Perkins were the only 1/2/3 racers!)
2011 Day 2: 10 / 3 (Barbosa, AO and Perkins)
2012: 11 / 8 (@Robin sighting in Cat 4)
2013: 16 / 12
2014: 9 / 11
2015: 11 / 13 (2015 had a womens fat bike category too, so +1 rider )

My Thoughts:
Cat 4 numbers seem to be constant with small ups and downs. Sadly with lower numbers being +/- one person is a big deal. Largest was 2013, while the A race grew every year.
This seems to be how I think everything would be in a perfect world. The 4's grow, race the 1/2/3 race @Norm is this what you expected to see?


Day 1 Nittany 35+ Finishers
2011: 69
2012: 64
2013: 68
2014: 62
2015: 59
2016: 44

Day 1 HPCX 35+ Finishers
2011: 43
2012: 42
2013: 36
2014: 32
2015: 26
2016: 28

My Thoughts:
So an obvious trend towards. Not sure what to make of it though. Sounds like @jimvreeland and @Norm nailed it. Not that I need to twist someones arm to race or think you have the solution, but @jimvreeland, what would make sense for you to come back? I remember @BiknBen talking about the 35+ Cat 3/4 race. Looks like it was a popular category.

I remember @Delish was a big fan of just having the categories for racing.
Cat 5, Cat 4, Cat 3, Cat 2, Cat 1 race, etc. Maybe you can combine some of them if numbers would be low and score them individually, but no more age groups. I don't know how this helps the overall numbers, but
 
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From a racing outsiders point of view:

While the breaking up of categories by age seems excessive, having one big category may discourage people from moving up because a 40 year old cat 4 will be racing 22 year olds.

I dont have much else to add.
 
You mention Nitanny, HPCX, and Westwood. When is the last time you saw a significant course change at Nittany or HPCX? Promoters gotta keep it fresh to keep people coming back. Even Westwood hasn't changed much from year to year.

New venues or those that continue to change/improve are the ones that create a buzz. The buzz gets people to show up.

The buzz about Nitanny is simply because it is the first area race (or was for a long time). Everyone is eager to race and pump each other up.

The buzz about HPCX is due to it being centrally located to all of us in Jersey plus NYC and Philly.

Task #47 for @pearl , check the numbers at some PA races. I see bigger and bigger crowds there.
 
I actually think that breaking them up too much makes it worse when numbers lag. If you have 140 people in the class, sure it sucks to be 100th but you're racing 20 different people and you beat 40. When you break that into 3 classes of less than 50, you can end up coming in 32 of 35 towards the end of the season, and it's no longer fun if you do 4 laps by yourself.

@pearl - no, I was expecting to see larger cat 4 numbers in the women. I would say to look at the series as a whole but I know that's a lot of work.

I think the 35+ class is getting smaller while the 45+ is getting larger. But again, as in mountain biking, what does this predict about the future of our sport when the 2nd biggest class is 45+?
 
I do like the idea of separate podiums. Ensures progression and allows some extra amount of glory for people who might be discouraged and quit otherwise.

I'm not saying everyone needs to be a winner but it sucks when the field ability level is spread is so large that there is no space for progression.

Maybe the effect of small elite fields has tricked down to the B fields. There is a huge barrier of entry for competitive level for elite racing. Maybe relatively speaking the tail end of the B field is experiencing the same shit as the A. You train what you can but if you end up in that back half of the field you're kinda stuck there.

It takes a lot of energy to stomach getting kicked in the teeth every weekend.
 
BiknBen said:
Task #47 for @pearl , check the numbers at some PA races. I see bigger and bigger crowds there.
Click to expand...

This is a good point. HPCX used to be a "can't miss" race. Last year many people chose a PA series race over HPCX when they were on the same day. It was once the case that nobody within 100 miles would put a race up against HPCX.
 
Interesting Ben, from a numbers perspective I just chose the same events because it was easier to track. Maybe the first two PACX races?

I always thought the longer the event was held, the more popular it got. Maybe this is the flaw in my initial research
 
I don't think it's dying I just think there are so many races to choose from you can't expect people to attend every race. On the Marty's weekend we had 2 PACX events and DCCX to compete with. I believe I counted 2900 entries that weekend. This always happens in cycling where more and more events pop up til it explodes.
 
@Superfly100guy, this is interesting. More people competing for primo weekends will make the numbers look down at each race, but maybe overall, the numbers are large? Bummer you cant look up results by day in crossresults 🙁

Not familiar with many of the PACX races, I actually haven't done one, but crossresults makes it easy to find total registrants:

PACX Crossasaurus numbers:
2011: 168
2012: 252
2013: 395
2014: 308
2015: 288
2016: 310

NJ Cooper River numbers:
2012: 331
2013: 354
2014: 293
2015: 253

MAC Cooper River Race:
2016: 315

Compared to Martys, Westwood (NJ), Kutztown, Stoudts (PACX), none are over 280.

Crazy that 2012/2013 Cooper River as an NJ race was bigger than the MAC race. I think this is telling.
Wouldn't the fact it is a MAC series race would draw X% more than an NJ race?
 
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