2021. .. now with even more 2020!

jdog

jdog

Shop: Halter's Cycles
Shop Keep
I just heard from Santa Cruz that they are no longer accepting any new orders for 2021 bikes with the exception of V10, nomad and ebikes.

This will certainly be echoed by other brands as the supply chain can’t come close to matching the current demand for bikes globally.

yikes!
 
I'm glad I'm ahead of the curve, been very lucky. I'm also lucky that the wife does not get N+1 fever, in fact its always the opposite when I buy her a bike. I get there's nothing wrong with my current bike, so it takes a few rides for her to warm up to a new ride. God forbid I even think of modern geometry for her.
 
Oh, shoot, guess I better order my new bike now. Thanks for the heads up!
 
mattybfat said:
I'm glad I'm ahead of the curve, been very lucky.
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Ditto. All three of my mtn bikes are more or less "current" so I don't think I'll need to upgrade anytime soon. And to date no company really makes a road bike that I want, so I have a feeling I'll end up going custom - which has its own scheduling challenges. But the Colnago has served me for this long (over 20 years) and the Grade is good enough for my foul weather needs for now. If anything, I may have jdog build up a new set of road wheels for me and I "might" consider a new BMX bike, but that'll depend on how 2021 goes riding-wise and I actually get to Hunterdon BMX like I want to.
 
jdog said:
I just heard from Santa Cruz that they are no longer accepting any new orders for 2021 bikes with the exception of V10, nomad and ebikes.

This will certainly be echoed by other brands as the supply chain can’t come close to matching the current demand for bikes globally.

yikes!
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UhOh......you said the "E" word
 
I posted this up as I don't think many people understand just how tough it will be to get bikes this spring. We are working with each of our vendors to prebook as many bikes as we can, but it's going to be a shit-show this year.

The shops that have a one brand focus are in real trouble.
 
jdog said:
I posted this up as I don't think many people understand just how tough it will be to get bikes this spring. We are working with each of our vendors to prebook as many bikes as we can, but it's going to be a shit-show this year.

The shops that have a one brand focus are in real trouble.
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I contacted Salsa a while ago asking when they were supposed to have Timberjack frames back in stock (not sure if that is going to be a new model frame or the same specs as the latest) and they said first few months of 2021. Does that mean that if you want one you need to preorder now?
 
jdog said:
I just heard from Santa Cruz that they are no longer accepting any new orders for 2021 bikes with the exception of V10, nomad and ebikes.

This will certainly be echoed by other brands as the supply chain can’t come close to matching the current demand for bikes globally.

yikes!
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Thanks for the info!

Wondering if this means there will be shortages for parts too - unless there will be more available parts if the parts are not used to build up bikes due to bike shortage.
 
jackx said:
Thanks for the info!

Wondering if this means there will be shortages for parts too - unless there will be more available parts if the parts are not used to build up bikes due to bike shortage.
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Going by what I've seen trying to gather parts for my Chameleon build, I'd say yes - parts may be an issue. Although less so for some of the pricey high-end stuff.
 
I don’t buy it. I’ve been in the fitness game for 25 years. People are lazy AF. Sure, they’ll be a whole new group that have discovered outdoor activities. These people already bought a bike. The rest will look to sell their overpriced two-wheeled-close-hanger as soon as the vaccine has been mass distributed. I project 2021 will be the year of used bikes and fitness equipment. Bike shops will still have a good season but it’ll all be back to normal by Fall.
 
Kind of a bummer for everyone. Over the past few months I've been stashing parts for a BMX (new school freestyler). Almost done...but it takes time to locate specific parts/colors.
 
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a.s. said:
I don’t buy it. I’ve been in the fitness game for 25 years. People are lazy AF. Sure, they’ll be a whole new group that have discovered outdoor activities. These people already bought a bike. The rest will look to sell their overpriced two-wheeled-close-hanger as soon as the vaccine has been mass distributed. I project 2021 will be the year of used bikes and fitness equipment. Bike shops will still have a good season but it’ll all be back to normal by Fall.
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i think i would agree if it were only a demand issue, but from what i hear, there are significant supply issues unrelated to increased demand. Couple that with the percentage of new riders who will stick with it and the fact that many avid riders have more time to ride due to remote work etc and the demand will still likely be higher than 'normal' times.
 
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a.s. said:
I don’t buy it. I’ve been in the fitness game for 25 years. People are lazy AF. Sure, they’ll be a whole new group that have discovered outdoor activities. These people already bought a bike. The rest will look to sell their overpriced two-wheeled-close-hanger as soon as the vaccine has been mass distributed. I project 2021 will be the year of used bikes and fitness equipment. Bike shops will still have a good season but it’ll all be back to normal by Fall.
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As much as I'm hoping for this as I'm building up my home gym....it takes people a while to admit mistakes. Sunk cost fallacy for sure. It'll be a year or two minimum before we see the COVID purchases start popping up is my guess.
 
cassinonorth said:
As much as I'm hoping for this as I'm building up my home gym....it takes people a while to admit mistakes. Sunk cost fallacy for sure. It'll be a year or two minimum before we see the COVID purchases start popping up is my guess.
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Not this new lot of impulse buyers. It’ll be more like, “Oh I got my job back, making money, things back to normal. Gotta buy that 75” TV and PS5. Damn this stupid bike is blocking my view.”

Couple that will a big spike in worldwide productivity and manufacturing output by the third quarter...
 
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I've talked to a few shop owners and I hear the same story, whether it's Trek, Giant, Specialized...
 
xrjx said:
i think i would agree if it were only a demand issue, but from what i hear, there are significant supply issues unrelated to increased demand. Couple that with the percentage of new riders who will stick with it and the fact that many avid riders have more time to ride due to remote work etc and the demand will still likely be higher than 'normal' times.
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It's not just the bike business. Any industry providing product for a relatively static number of consumers (overall yearly bike sales don't go up and down that much... except for this year) and then all of a sudden, out of nowhere, sees a massive influx of new customers, there are going to be major, long-lasting issues. It's inevitable. Factory lead times are like 10-12 months right now, and getting longer. That's not even taking into account the shortage of container space on vessels and the fact that manufacturers have to wheel and deal to even get space. This isn't going away any time soon.

We're all expecting that a certain percentage of of these new riders are a flash in the pan, and their bikes will sit in the garage after a few rides. But even if we hold a third of them, that's still a big bump for the business.

We needed it, just not like this.
 
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Same with indoor trainers. Hard to get. If you're into indoor riding, pray that your trainer doesn't break. That said, it feels like Zwift has leveled out and race participation is no longer skyrocketing, though I have no numbers to back that up.
 
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