Tariffs...what to make of them.

thegock said:
View attachment 258424
Click to expand...
Well, that pic tells us nothing related to Dave's post (the one you replied to) cuz from the time he posted until the time you replied, the indices are just about flat. They've been higher and lower thru the day, but flat from his post until yours. Of course, he and you are not talking so short term, so I'm tongue in cheek commenting in jest.

BUT, it did make me wonder about something, and this is where I think AI proves very useful. In about 10 seconds, it summarized something that would have taken me a bit of time in the old days: dump a bunch of data into excel, massage it, analyze it, until I finally got an answer. I'm pretty dang expert level in Excel, but it would still have taken me much longer than 10 seconds:

-------------------------------------

To address your question about the performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index after two consecutive days of 5% or greater drops, I’ll need to rely on historical data and trends since specific instances and their exact follow-up performance require detailed market analysis. While I don’t have a comprehensive dataset to calculate precise averages for every occurrence up to April 4, 2025, I can provide insight based on notable historical events and general market behavior, using available knowledge and reasoning.

The NASDAQ Composite, being heavily weighted toward technology and growth stocks, is known for higher volatility compared to broader indices like the S&P 500. Two consecutive days of 5%+ declines represent an extreme event, typically associated with significant market stress—think panic selling, economic shocks, or systemic crises. Such events are rare, but they’ve happened during major downturns like the 1987 crash, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Let’s break this down logically.
Historical Context
  1. October 1987 (Black Monday Era)
    • On October 19, 1987, the NASDAQ dropped significantly (though the Dow’s 22.6% crash is more famous, the NASDAQ fell around 11% that day). The prior day, October 16, saw a drop exceeding 5%. While exact daily NASDAQ data for consecutive 5% drops is less documented than the Dow’s, the aftermath is telling: the market stabilized somewhat in the next month (November 1987 saw volatility but no sustained collapse), and over the next year, it recovered gradually, gaining roughly 15% by late 1988 as the economy avoided a deep recession.
  2. Dot-Com Crash (2000-2002)
    • During the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ saw multiple steep declines. For instance, in April 2000, it experienced sharp drops, including a week with two days of near or exceeding 5% losses (e.g., April 3 and 4, 2000). The month after (May 2000) saw continued volatility with a net decline of about 5-10%, and the year after (April 2001) was deep in bear market territory, down over 50% from its peak as the tech bubble deflated fully.
  3. 2008 Financial Crisis
    • October 2008 was brutal. The NASDAQ dropped 9.14% on September 29, followed by further declines, including days exceeding 5% (e.g., October 7 and 9). The next month (November 2008) saw a partial rebound of about 10% as markets digested the initial panic, but the year after (October 2009) was up significantly—around 40%—as stimulus and recovery took hold post-March 2009 lows.
  4. 2020 COVID-19 Crash
    • March 11, 2020, saw a 4.7% drop, followed by a 9.4% plunge on March 12. While March 11 was just shy of 5%, March 12 and 16 (another 5%+ day) were close enough to consider. The next month (April 2020) saw a strong rebound of about 15%, fueled by unprecedented stimulus, and a year later (March 2021), the NASDAQ was up over 70% from its March 2020 lows, hitting new highs.
General Patterns
  • Next Month: After such sharp declines, the immediate aftermath (next 30 days) often sees heightened volatility. Historically, there’s typically a bounce-back as bargain hunters step in or panic subsides—ranging from 5-15% gains in the cases above (e.g., 2020, 2008). However, if the underlying crisis persists (e.g., 2000), losses can deepen by 5-10%.
  • Next Year: Over a year, the outcome depends on the economic context. Post-crisis recoveries (2009, 2021) saw gains of 40-70%, while prolonged bear markets (2001-2002) saw losses of 20-50%. The NASDAQ’s long-term upward bias suggests recovery is common unless structural damage lingers.
Estimated Performance
Given the rarity of exact “two consecutive 5%+ drop” events and the variability of outcomes, here’s a reasoned estimate based on these precedents:
  • Next Month: On average, expect a rebound of ~5-15% as markets stabilize or oversold conditions correct, though continued declines of 5-10% are possible in a worsening scenario.
  • Next Year: Historically, the NASDAQ recovers strongly, averaging 20-40% gains a year later if the economy stabilizes (more if stimulus is aggressive), but losses of 20-50% can occur in a sustained bear market.
Without pinpointing every instance up to April 2025, this reflects the NASDAQ’s resilience tempered by context. For precise figures, I’d need daily data through today—something I can’t fully access or compute here. Still, the pattern suggests short-term bounces are likely, with long-term outcomes hinging on whether the drop signals a fleeting panic or a deeper downturn. What’s the latest market event you’re curious about? That could refine this further!

------------------------------------

So, the market might rebound before declining further. It might rebound and keep going up. It might keep going down. Do w/ this info what you wish, I'm just acting as court jester.
 
rjr44 said:
Well, that pic tells us nothing related to Dave's post (the one you replied to) cuz from the time he posted until the time you replied, the indices are just about flat. They've been higher and lower thru the day, but flat from his post until yours. Of course, he and you are not talking so short term, so I'm tongue in cheek commenting in jest.

BUT, it did make me wonder about something, and this is where I think AI proves very useful. In about 10 seconds, it summarized something that would have taken me a bit of time in the old days: dump a bunch of data into excel, massage it, analyze it, until I finally got an answer. I'm pretty dang expert level in Excel, but it would still have taken me much longer than 10 seconds:

-------------------------------------

To address your question about the performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index after two consecutive days of 5% or greater drops, I’ll need to rely on historical data and trends since specific instances and their exact follow-up performance require detailed market analysis. While I don’t have a comprehensive dataset to calculate precise averages for every occurrence up to April 4, 2025, I can provide insight based on notable historical events and general market behavior, using available knowledge and reasoning.

The NASDAQ Composite, being heavily weighted toward technology and growth stocks, is known for higher volatility compared to broader indices like the S&P 500. Two consecutive days of 5%+ declines represent an extreme event, typically associated with significant market stress—think panic selling, economic shocks, or systemic crises. Such events are rare, but they’ve happened during major downturns like the 1987 crash, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Let’s break this down logically.
Historical Context
  1. October 1987 (Black Monday Era)
    • On October 19, 1987, the NASDAQ dropped significantly (though the Dow’s 22.6% crash is more famous, the NASDAQ fell around 11% that day). The prior day, October 16, saw a drop exceeding 5%. While exact daily NASDAQ data for consecutive 5% drops is less documented than the Dow’s, the aftermath is telling: the market stabilized somewhat in the next month (November 1987 saw volatility but no sustained collapse), and over the next year, it recovered gradually, gaining roughly 15% by late 1988 as the economy avoided a deep recession.
  2. Dot-Com Crash (2000-2002)
    • During the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ saw multiple steep declines. For instance, in April 2000, it experienced sharp drops, including a week with two days of near or exceeding 5% losses (e.g., April 3 and 4, 2000). The month after (May 2000) saw continued volatility with a net decline of about 5-10%, and the year after (April 2001) was deep in bear market territory, down over 50% from its peak as the tech bubble deflated fully.
  3. 2008 Financial Crisis
    • October 2008 was brutal. The NASDAQ dropped 9.14% on September 29, followed by further declines, including days exceeding 5% (e.g., October 7 and 9). The next month (November 2008) saw a partial rebound of about 10% as markets digested the initial panic, but the year after (October 2009) was up significantly—around 40%—as stimulus and recovery took hold post-March 2009 lows.
  4. 2020 COVID-19 Crash
    • March 11, 2020, saw a 4.7% drop, followed by a 9.4% plunge on March 12. While March 11 was just shy of 5%, March 12 and 16 (another 5%+ day) were close enough to consider. The next month (April 2020) saw a strong rebound of about 15%, fueled by unprecedented stimulus, and a year later (March 2021), the NASDAQ was up over 70% from its March 2020 lows, hitting new highs.
General Patterns
  • Next Month: After such sharp declines, the immediate aftermath (next 30 days) often sees heightened volatility. Historically, there’s typically a bounce-back as bargain hunters step in or panic subsides—ranging from 5-15% gains in the cases above (e.g., 2020, 2008). However, if the underlying crisis persists (e.g., 2000), losses can deepen by 5-10%.
  • Next Year: Over a year, the outcome depends on the economic context. Post-crisis recoveries (2009, 2021) saw gains of 40-70%, while prolonged bear markets (2001-2002) saw losses of 20-50%. The NASDAQ’s long-term upward bias suggests recovery is common unless structural damage lingers.
Estimated Performance
Given the rarity of exact “two consecutive 5%+ drop” events and the variability of outcomes, here’s a reasoned estimate based on these precedents:
  • Next Month: On average, expect a rebound of ~5-15% as markets stabilize or oversold conditions correct, though continued declines of 5-10% are possible in a worsening scenario.
  • Next Year: Historically, the NASDAQ recovers strongly, averaging 20-40% gains a year later if the economy stabilizes (more if stimulus is aggressive), but losses of 20-50% can occur in a sustained bear market.
Without pinpointing every instance up to April 2025, this reflects the NASDAQ’s resilience tempered by context. For precise figures, I’d need daily data through today—something I can’t fully access or compute here. Still, the pattern suggests short-term bounces are likely, with long-term outcomes hinging on whether the drop signals a fleeting panic or a deeper downturn. What’s the latest market event you’re curious about? That could refine this further!

------------------------------------

So, the market might rebound before declining further. It might rebound and keep going up. It might keep going down. Do w/ this info what you wish, I'm just acting as court jester.
Click to expand...
ANNNNND like clockwork, closing on the lows!
 
rjr44 said:
Well, that pic tells us nothing related to Dave's post (the one you replied to) cuz from the time he posted until the time you replied, the indices are just about flat. They've been higher and lower thru the day, but flat from his post until yours. Of course, he and you are not talking so short term, so I'm tongue in cheek commenting in jest.
Click to expand...
I think the picture was in reference to you saying if today's open was the low, and then Dave saying it's not. Cause we're definitely not flat since the open.
 
rjr44 said:
Well, that pic tells us nothing related to Dave's post (the one you replied to) cuz from the time he posted until the time you replied, the indices are just about flat. They've been higher and lower thru the day, but flat from his post until yours. Of course, he and you are not talking so short term, so I'm tongue in cheek commenting in jest.

BUT, it did make me wonder about something, and this is where I think AI proves very useful. In about 10 seconds, it summarized something that would have taken me a bit of time in the old days: dump a bunch of data into excel, massage it, analyze it, until I finally got an answer. I'm pretty dang expert level in Excel, but it would still have taken me much longer than 10 seconds:

-------------------------------------

To address your question about the performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index after two consecutive days of 5% or greater drops, I’ll need to rely on historical data and trends since specific instances and their exact follow-up performance require detailed market analysis. While I don’t have a comprehensive dataset to calculate precise averages for every occurrence up to April 4, 2025, I can provide insight based on notable historical events and general market behavior, using available knowledge and reasoning.

The NASDAQ Composite, being heavily weighted toward technology and growth stocks, is known for higher volatility compared to broader indices like the S&P 500. Two consecutive days of 5%+ declines represent an extreme event, typically associated with significant market stress—think panic selling, economic shocks, or systemic crises. Such events are rare, but they’ve happened during major downturns like the 1987 crash, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Let’s break this down logically.
Historical Context
  1. October 1987 (Black Monday Era)
    • On October 19, 1987, the NASDAQ dropped significantly (though the Dow’s 22.6% crash is more famous, the NASDAQ fell around 11% that day). The prior day, October 16, saw a drop exceeding 5%. While exact daily NASDAQ data for consecutive 5% drops is less documented than the Dow’s, the aftermath is telling: the market stabilized somewhat in the next month (November 1987 saw volatility but no sustained collapse), and over the next year, it recovered gradually, gaining roughly 15% by late 1988 as the economy avoided a deep recession.
  2. Dot-Com Crash (2000-2002)
    • During the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ saw multiple steep declines. For instance, in April 2000, it experienced sharp drops, including a week with two days of near or exceeding 5% losses (e.g., April 3 and 4, 2000). The month after (May 2000) saw continued volatility with a net decline of about 5-10%, and the year after (April 2001) was deep in bear market territory, down over 50% from its peak as the tech bubble deflated fully.
  3. 2008 Financial Crisis
    • October 2008 was brutal. The NASDAQ dropped 9.14% on September 29, followed by further declines, including days exceeding 5% (e.g., October 7 and 9). The next month (November 2008) saw a partial rebound of about 10% as markets digested the initial panic, but the year after (October 2009) was up significantly—around 40%—as stimulus and recovery took hold post-March 2009 lows.
  4. 2020 COVID-19 Crash
    • March 11, 2020, saw a 4.7% drop, followed by a 9.4% plunge on March 12. While March 11 was just shy of 5%, March 12 and 16 (another 5%+ day) were close enough to consider. The next month (April 2020) saw a strong rebound of about 15%, fueled by unprecedented stimulus, and a year later (March 2021), the NASDAQ was up over 70% from its March 2020 lows, hitting new highs.
General Patterns
  • Next Month: After such sharp declines, the immediate aftermath (next 30 days) often sees heightened volatility. Historically, there’s typically a bounce-back as bargain hunters step in or panic subsides—ranging from 5-15% gains in the cases above (e.g., 2020, 2008). However, if the underlying crisis persists (e.g., 2000), losses can deepen by 5-10%.
  • Next Year: Over a year, the outcome depends on the economic context. Post-crisis recoveries (2009, 2021) saw gains of 40-70%, while prolonged bear markets (2001-2002) saw losses of 20-50%. The NASDAQ’s long-term upward bias suggests recovery is common unless structural damage lingers.
Estimated Performance
Given the rarity of exact “two consecutive 5%+ drop” events and the variability of outcomes, here’s a reasoned estimate based on these precedents:
  • Next Month: On average, expect a rebound of ~5-15% as markets stabilize or oversold conditions correct, though continued declines of 5-10% are possible in a worsening scenario.
  • Next Year: Historically, the NASDAQ recovers strongly, averaging 20-40% gains a year later if the economy stabilizes (more if stimulus is aggressive), but losses of 20-50% can occur in a sustained bear market.
Without pinpointing every instance up to April 2025, this reflects the NASDAQ’s resilience tempered by context. For precise figures, I’d need daily data through today—something I can’t fully access or compute here. Still, the pattern suggests short-term bounces are likely, with long-term outcomes hinging on whether the drop signals a fleeting panic or a deeper downturn. What’s the latest market event you’re curious about? That could refine this further!

------------------------------------

So, the market might rebound before declining further. It might rebound and keep going up. It might keep going down. Do w/ this info what you wish, I'm just acting as court jester.
Click to expand...
There's the old saying, "history doesn't really repeat, but it often rhymes" and that will likely apply here. It's hard to say how all of this will play out other than to remember that in general, greed is an optimist and it all will eventually rebound and go back up again. How or when is anyone's guess as the last few drops mentioned above had different triggers and we haven't had one like this in almost 100 years - and even back then it was under different circumstances.

Some may say this is as much of a correction as a crash as one little nugget of data suggests: At close today (Apr 4) the market is down 0.73% from where it was 52 weeks ago - and is still above the 52-week low.
1743801081105.png

So, for us laymen looking at our 401k balances, the only real loss is in the funds put into the system over the past year or so. Or that means it still has father to drop.

From a political POV, this move could work as it's possible all of this will have run its course by the time the mid-term elections happen in a year and a half. At least I'm guessing that is the bet Trump is making. Or we'll be in a deep recession and the GOP could lose bigtime. Only time will tell.
 
Ian F said:
There's the old saying, "history doesn't really repeat, but it often rhymes" and that will likely apply here. It's hard to say how all of this will play out other than to remember that in general, greed is an optimist and it all will eventually rebound and go back up again. How or when is anyone's guess as the last few drops mentioned above had different triggers and we haven't had one like this in almost 100 years - and even back then it was under different circumstances.

Some may say this is as much of a correction as a crash as one little nugget of data suggests: At close today (Apr 4) the market is down 0.73% from where it was 52 weeks ago - and is still above the 52-week low.
View attachment 258434

So, for us laymen looking at our 401k balances, the only real loss is in the funds put into the system over the past year or so. Or that means it still has father to drop.

From a political POV, this move could work as it's possible all of this will have run its course by the time the mid-term elections happen in a year and a half. At least I'm guessing that is the bet Trump is making. Or we'll be in a deep recession and the GOP could lose bigtime. Only time will tell.
Click to expand...
But if you are close to retiring or already retired it hurts. If you are in you 45 or younger you can keep putting money in your 401k which you would be dollar cost averaging on the way down the market has always held up over time. This is different than 911, dot com, 08 crisis and covid. This was self- inflected by one person.
 
  1. October 1987 (Black Monday Era)
    • On October 19, 1987, the NASDAQ dropped significantly (though the Dow’s 22.6% crash is more famous, the NASDAQ fell around 11% that day). The prior day, October 16, saw a drop exceeding 5%. While exact daily NASDAQ data for consecutive 5% drops is less documented than the Dow’s, the aftermath is telling: the market stabilized somewhat in the next month (November 1987 saw volatility but no sustained collapse), and over the next year, it recovered gradually, gaining roughly 15% by late 1988 as the economy avoided a deep recession.
  2. Dot-Com Crash (2000-2002)
    • During the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ saw multiple steep declines. For instance, in April 2000, it experienced sharp drops, including a week with two days of near or exceeding 5% losses (e.g., April 3 and 4, 2000). The month after (May 2000) saw continued volatility with a net decline of about 5-10%, and the year after (April 2001) was deep in bear market territory, down over 50% from its peak as the tech bubble deflated fully.
  3. 2008 Financial Crisis
    • October 2008 was brutal. The NASDAQ dropped 9.14% on September 29, followed by further declines, including days exceeding 5% (e.g., October 7 and 9). The next month (November 2008) saw a partial rebound of about 10% as markets digested the initial panic, but the year after (October 2009) was up significantly—around 40%—as stimulus and recovery took hold post-March 2009 lows.
  4. 2020 COVID-19 Crash
    • March 11, 2020, saw a 4.7% drop, followed by a 9.4% plunge on March 12. While March 11 was just shy of 5%, March 12 and 16 (another 5%+ day) were close enough to consider. The next month (April 2020) s

I have no doubt it will eventually be back - the major difference I see is the self inflicted pain this time around.

Oct 87 - basically the coming of age of computer based trading created a storm - well it probably created the rise, do why not create the fall
dot.com - Enron was putting on a show, every other company started booking sales based on a customer's perceived interest, otherwise they were falling behind.
2008 - well, if you give mortgages to people at 6% so they can afford it, and raise it to 12% in 5 years, eventually there are going to be a bunch of people defaulting. duh - the big short
COVID - the thought was the economy was going to stop. it just shifted. many people were still working, the gvt was giving out money to keep people employed. we figured it out rather quickly

this time - "there are going to be sacrifices to create gain" - i'm even ok with the idea of I may have a little less, but many will have more. And those many would be the people who are struggling, not in the market - but how are food and gas prices going to come down? A reliable used car? ok, if it doesn't come down, how are we getting more money into the hands of those who need it? higher min wage? more skilled work?

If this is prolonged (well it isn't going to be more than 3 years and 9 months) what happens when AIG starts to have multiple bad quarters?
What if a pension fund collapses?

I was in the market during all of these.

I just put a few shekels in the sp500!
 
rjr44 said:
Well, that pic tells us nothing related to Dave's post (the one you replied to) cuz from the time he posted until the time you replied, the indices are just about flat. They've been higher and lower thru the day, but flat from his post until yours. Of course, he and you are not talking so short term, so I'm tongue in cheek commenting in jest.

BUT, it did make me wonder about something, and this is where I think AI proves very useful. In about 10 seconds, it summarized something that would have taken me a bit of time in the old days: dump a bunch of data into excel, massage it, analyze it, until I finally got an answer. I'm pretty dang expert level in Excel, but it would still have taken me much longer than 10 seconds:

-------------------------------------

To address your question about the performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index after two consecutive days of 5% or greater drops, I’ll need to rely on historical data and trends since specific instances and their exact follow-up performance require detailed market analysis. While I don’t have a comprehensive dataset to calculate precise averages for every occurrence up to April 4, 2025, I can provide insight based on notable historical events and general market behavior, using available knowledge and reasoning.

The NASDAQ Composite, being heavily weighted toward technology and growth stocks, is known for higher volatility compared to broader indices like the S&P 500. Two consecutive days of 5%+ declines represent an extreme event, typically associated with significant market stress—think panic selling, economic shocks, or systemic crises. Such events are rare, but they’ve happened during major downturns like the 1987 crash, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Let’s break this down logically.
Historical Context
  1. October 1987 (Black Monday Era)
    • On October 19, 1987, the NASDAQ dropped significantly (though the Dow’s 22.6% crash is more famous, the NASDAQ fell around 11% that day). The prior day, October 16, saw a drop exceeding 5%. While exact daily NASDAQ data for consecutive 5% drops is less documented than the Dow’s, the aftermath is telling: the market stabilized somewhat in the next month (November 1987 saw volatility but no sustained collapse), and over the next year, it recovered gradually, gaining roughly 15% by late 1988 as the economy avoided a deep recession.
  2. Dot-Com Crash (2000-2002)
    • During the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ saw multiple steep declines. For instance, in April 2000, it experienced sharp drops, including a week with two days of near or exceeding 5% losses (e.g., April 3 and 4, 2000). The month after (May 2000) saw continued volatility with a net decline of about 5-10%, and the year after (April 2001) was deep in bear market territory, down over 50% from its peak as the tech bubble deflated fully.
  3. 2008 Financial Crisis
    • October 2008 was brutal. The NASDAQ dropped 9.14% on September 29, followed by further declines, including days exceeding 5% (e.g., October 7 and 9). The next month (November 2008) saw a partial rebound of about 10% as markets digested the initial panic, but the year after (October 2009) was up significantly—around 40%—as stimulus and recovery took hold post-March 2009 lows.
  4. 2020 COVID-19 Crash
    • March 11, 2020, saw a 4.7% drop, followed by a 9.4% plunge on March 12. While March 11 was just shy of 5%, March 12 and 16 (another 5%+ day) were close enough to consider. The next month (April 2020) saw a strong rebound of about 15%, fueled by unprecedented stimulus, and a year later (March 2021), the NASDAQ was up over 70% from its March 2020 lows, hitting new highs.
General Patterns
  • Next Month: After such sharp declines, the immediate aftermath (next 30 days) often sees heightened volatility. Historically, there’s typically a bounce-back as bargain hunters step in or panic subsides—ranging from 5-15% gains in the cases above (e.g., 2020, 2008). However, if the underlying crisis persists (e.g., 2000), losses can deepen by 5-10%.
  • Next Year: Over a year, the outcome depends on the economic context. Post-crisis recoveries (2009, 2021) saw gains of 40-70%, while prolonged bear markets (2001-2002) saw losses of 20-50%. The NASDAQ’s long-term upward bias suggests recovery is common unless structural damage lingers.
Estimated Performance
Given the rarity of exact “two consecutive 5%+ drop” events and the variability of outcomes, here’s a reasoned estimate based on these precedents:
  • Next Month: On average, expect a rebound of ~5-15% as markets stabilize or oversold conditions correct, though continued declines of 5-10% are possible in a worsening scenario.
  • Next Year: Historically, the NASDAQ recovers strongly, averaging 20-40% gains a year later if the economy stabilizes (more if stimulus is aggressive), but losses of 20-50% can occur in a sustained bear market.
Without pinpointing every instance up to April 2025, this reflects the NASDAQ’s resilience tempered by context. For precise figures, I’d need daily data through today—something I can’t fully access or compute here. Still, the pattern suggests short-term bounces are likely, with long-term outcomes hinging on whether the drop signals a fleeting panic or a deeper downturn. What’s the latest market event you’re curious about? That could refine this further!

------------------------------------

So, the market might rebound before declining further. It might rebound and keep going up. It might keep going down. Do w/ this info what you wish, I'm just acting as court jester.
Click to expand...
Markets weren't really flat. They broke down premarket just before 8am. Spy was at 512 and called to almost 519 at the open then sold of ALL day finishing at 502 at end of day. Yes, typically market mean revert after such big moves. I'll hop on when this squeeze gets going(not right away as that's dangerous with anything, even shares.We haven't seen " blood in the streets" yet. EVERYTHING needs to simultaneously sell off hard for a bottom to start. Bitcoin was up yesterday. When this happens I think a small relief move in a week or two is more likely than a bottom being in. I'll start adding back into my annuity if we see six under 5000.
 
rjr44 said:
you goin' all in to the downside?
Click to expand...
No, but I sold these on a pretty big relief move when volatility was very high. Stock was testing a moving average from underneath so possibility of more upside on the stock was real but the premium on the calls was so high that even if the stock price goes higher a bit the option price is likely to still lose value between time decay and volatility coming down. If the stock price goers down the options will still lose value while volatility stays high. Better to sell premium in high volatility(vix where it is now) and buy it in extreme low volatility(vix$12ish)
 
John the Plumber said:
But if you are close to retiring or already retired it hurts. If you are in you 45 or younger you can keep putting money in your 401k which you would be dollar cost averaging on the way down the market has always held up over time. This is different than 911, dot com, 08 crisis and covid. This was self- inflected by one person.
Click to expand...
Why would you be in anything as risky as the stock market near or during retirement? STABLE VALUE FUNDS.
 
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