This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

How's it going in Sweden?

things i might use for a scorecard

Rank
8th highest deaths per million - two of the countries ahead of them don't have a population over 100,000, otherwise they are the smallest
24th highest cases per million - two of the countries ahead of them have a smaller population
24th highest cases - again two with smaller populations in front of them.
15th total deaths - every country ahead of them is larger
65th tests per million - 33rd for countries with ~5M population or more. (sweden pop 10M)

Belgium - with about 11M people might be a good comparison.

2nd highest deaths per million - #1 if dismissing San Marino with population 33,900.
11th cases per million - 9 of the countries ahead of them have smaller populations
15th cases - 2 countries ahead of them have smaller populations
7th total deaths - every country ahead of them is larger
18th tests per million - 5th for countries with ~5M population of more

With total deaths - might look at larger countries with lower deaths?

does the tests/1M drive the other numbers?
or is it their counting strategy?
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium

Belgium believes its high Covid-19 mortality rate is down to more rigorous counting of cases.
www.bbc.com

What about Swedens counting strategy?

Coronavirus deaths may be undercounted by 60 percent

”No country counts virus deaths like the others. We just have the most detailed method.” — Belgium’s Public Health Minister Maggie De Block
www.idahostatejournal.com www.idahostatejournal.com

Hint: Belgium includes suspected, Sweden is only counting confirmed (and allegedly only in-hospital)
 
Last edited:
Maybe I missed it or maybe it flew under the radar, but no mention of Israel in the thread.
About the same size (and shape) of NJ with around 9 million people.
Way more controlled borders of course.
Their covid stats:
Less than 17K confirmed cases, less than 300 deaths. They must be doing something right.
 
JerseyPete said:
Maybe I missed it or maybe it flew under the radar, but no mention of Israel in the thread.
About the same size (and shape) of NJ with around 9 million people.
Way more controlled borders of course.
Their covid stats:
Less than 17K confirmed cases, less than 300 deaths. They must be doing something right.
Click to expand...
Difference being... States can't/won't close their borders.
Infections can come from other states.
 
JerseyPete said:
Maybe I missed it or maybe it flew under the radar, but no mention of Israel in the thread.
About the same size (and shape) of NJ with around 9 million people.
Way more controlled borders of course.
Their covid stats:
Less than 17K confirmed cases, less than 300 deaths. They must be doing something right.
Click to expand...

More homogenous society - ??
the govt experts talk, and the people listen - as they are all in together on multiple points.
(yes - i know palestine....)

I'd also suspect some control of information - any sign of weakness could leave them vulnerable to
an attack.
 
Patrick said:
How's it going in Sweden?

things i might use for a scorecard

Rank
8th highest deaths per million - two of the countries ahead of them don't have a population over 100,000, otherwise they are the smallest
24th highest cases per million - two of the countries ahead of them have a smaller population
24th highest cases - again two with smaller populations in front of them.
15th total deaths - everyone country of them is larger
65th tests per million - 33rd for countries with ~5M population or more. (sweden pop 10M)

Belgium - with about 11M people might be a good comparison.

2nd highest deaths per million - #1 if dismissing San Marino with population 33,900.
11th cases per million - 9 of the countries ahead of them have smaller populations
15th cases - 2 countries ahead of them have smaller populations
7th total deaths - every country ahead of them is larger
18th tests per million - 5th for countries with ~5M population of more

With total deaths - might look at larger countries with lower deaths?

does the tests/1M drive the other numbers?
or is it their counting strategy?
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium

Belgium believes its high Covid-19 mortality rate is down to more rigorous counting of cases.
www.bbc.com

What about Swedens counting strategy?

Coronavirus deaths may be undercounted by 60 percent

”No country counts virus deaths like the others. We just have the most detailed method.” — Belgium’s Public Health Minister Maggie De Block
www.idahostatejournal.com www.idahostatejournal.com

Hint: Belgium includes suspected, Sweden is only counting confirmed (and allegedly only in-hospital)
Click to expand...

How are they doing? They flattened the curve without massive damage to their economy. Regardless of what you believe about testing, deaths have peaked and are declining. Their healthcare system never got close to "collapsing".

And they are testing others than just hospitalized - they did 29K tests last week. They prioritize hospitalizations and health-care workers, but continue to randomly test the population.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200320/fact-check-has-sweden-stopped-testing-people-for-the-coronavirus

http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...a-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
 
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Reactions: don
Patrick said:
How's it going in Sweden?

things i might use for a scorecard

Rank
8th highest deaths per million - two of the countries ahead of them don't have a population over 100,000, otherwise they are the smallest
24th highest cases per million - two of the countries ahead of them have a smaller population
24th highest cases - again two with smaller populations in front of them.
15th total deaths - everyone country of them is larger
65th tests per million - 33rd for countries with ~5M population or more. (sweden pop 10M)

Belgium - with about 11M people might be a good comparison.

2nd highest deaths per million - #1 if dismissing San Marino with population 33,900.
11th cases per million - 9 of the countries ahead of them have smaller populations
15th cases - 2 countries ahead of them have smaller populations
7th total deaths - every country ahead of them is larger
18th tests per million - 5th for countries with ~5M population of more

With total deaths - might look at larger countries with lower deaths?

does the tests/1M drive the other numbers?
or is it their counting strategy?
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium

Belgium believes its high Covid-19 mortality rate is down to more rigorous counting of cases.
www.bbc.com

What about Swedens counting strategy?

Coronavirus deaths may be undercounted by 60 percent

”No country counts virus deaths like the others. We just have the most detailed method.” — Belgium’s Public Health Minister Maggie De Block
www.idahostatejournal.com www.idahostatejournal.com

Hint: Belgium includes suspected, Sweden is only counting confirmed (and allegedly only in-hospital)
Click to expand...
I read this email and am now even more confused.
 
rick81721 said:
How are they doing? They flattened the curve without massive damage to their economy. Regardless of what you believe about testing, deaths have peaked and are declining. Their healthcare system never got close to "collapsing".

And they are testing others than just hospitalized - they did 29K tests last week. They prioritize hospitalizations and health-care workers, but continue to randomly test the population.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200320/fact-check-has-sweden-stopped-testing-people-for-the-coronavirus

http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...a-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
Click to expand...

Yes - the healthcare system is still intact - so far i'm a miss on that, but i have another 3 weeks before
the prediction is a failure in the best way possible.

we (i) do not have the data to judge how they are doing - that is why we need a scorecard approach.
Here is their outcome graphs of confirmed cases.. Something changed last week, cause Sweden had a really bad look
with 3/4 of the outcome being death. Bad optics.

1589812414654.png

This includes suspected cases.

1589812635594.png
 
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Reactions: don
stb222 said:
I read this email and am now even more confused.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to come up with a scorecard approach rather than looking at just raw/normalized numbers.
It is really a 'draw your own opinion' - as the measurement systems area different, the approach is different,
and the control of information is built on supporting the approach.

Let's look at NJ -
1589813280251.png

Currently looking like daily new from the end of March - (although ya gotta watch weekend numbers)
There is more testing - so if Rick's prevalence theory is correct - we are in better shape.

Deaths trending downward with new cases - the cycles are reporting bias - my money is from non-hospital deaths being categorized during the week.

1589813460251.png

The $1B question - with an arrival rate of 1,000 new cases per day, are we better off than we were in March, and let's open things up?
Or - we've gotten it down to March levels, if we open things up, three weeks from now we'll be right back into the growth cycle?
(it will be less severe, because restrictions and behavior has changed.)

Well - we are going to find out the answer - and the 4th of July should be very telling.

----

I'm somewhat in on @Santa's opinion - I'm not scared, but i'd like people to respect my space, as i respect theirs.
If this is the case, will shops be able to refuse service to those who don't adhere to their policy?
Then some shops that could choose to be more "open" - a new way to "compete."
I don't mind what happens to me so much, as i'm an "it is what it is" person -
i'd just hate to kill my wife, or have my kid live with long term lung issues. So I know my behavior will include an n95 mask when i go to a store,
and minimal public contact - no eating out, no beach, 4 max on a group ride.
 
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Reactions: don
Patrick said:
Let's look at NJ -
I'm not scared, but i'd like people to respect my space, as i respect theirs.
Click to expand...

Yeah, after this weekend I'm seeing fewer people sticking with the program (Masks, distancing, etc.), so I fully expect the numbers to climb by 4th of July. We mask-up, distance, and watch that adjust to others are not creeping into our space.

Patrick said:
If this is the case, will shops be able to refuse service to those who don't adhere to their policy?
Click to expand...

I would hope so.

I watched Chik-fil-A employee's diligently doing their job, repectful of how they "didn't" directly handle customer's food, ferrying large bins from the drive-thru window out to waiting cars. How many people in those cars do you think wore masks? Zip, nada, none, for the full 20 minutes we were parked within view. I would think store management would consider this an employee risk, and maybe take a Fast-Times position, "No mask, No Service, Thank you for your donation", bam.
 
Patrick said:
I'm trying to come up with a scorecard approach rather than looking at just raw/normalized numbers.
It is really a 'draw your own opinion' - as the measurement systems area different, the approach is different,
and the control of information is built on supporting the approach.

Let's look at NJ -
View attachment 129117

Currently looking like daily new from the end of March - (although ya gotta watch weekend numbers)
There is more testing - so if Rick's prevalence theory is correct - we are in better shape.

Deaths trending downward with new cases - the cycles are reporting bias - my money is from non-hospital deaths being categorized during the week.

View attachment 129118

The $1B question - with an arrival rate of 1,000 new cases per day, are we better off than we were in March, and let's open things up?
Or - we've gotten it down to March levels, if we open things up, three weeks from now we'll be right back into the growth cycle?
(it will be less severe, because restrictions and behavior has changed.)

Well - we are going to find out the answer - and the 4th of July should be very telling.

----

I'm somewhat in on @Santa's opinion - I'm not scared, but i'd like people to respect my space, as i respect theirs.
If this is the case, will shops be able to refuse service to those who don't adhere to their policy?
Then some shops that could choose to be more "open" - a new way to "compete."
I don't mind what happens to me so much, as i'm an "it is what it is" person -
i'd just hate to kill my wife, or have my kid live with long term lung issues. So I know my behavior will include an n95 mask when i go to a store,
and minimal public contact - no eating out, no beach, 4 max on a group ride.
Click to expand...
What Seems challenging is all the unknowns. Being that we're in an epicenter of things, and the fact that the virus can be asymptomatic, if there is a level of immunity after going through the virus, I wonder how many people are now without risk? I've seen some articles saying the states that are already open are doing fine. What's disheartening is the people that dont want to wear masks and adhere to social distancing. I can see a revolt against governments dictating social behavior, sure. But they're refusing to adhere to individual business's rules, and that is a big problem. It's one thing to get together with friends and disregard distancing and masks. It's another to go into a public place and disrespect the safety and well being of others. I have a feeling that type of behavior, if widened, will be the downfall of opening the economy back up.
 
Patrick said:
How's it going in Sweden?

things i might use for a scorecard

Rank
8th highest deaths per million - two of the countries ahead of them don't have a population over 100,000, otherwise they are the smallest
24th highest cases per million - two of the countries ahead of them have a smaller population
24th highest cases - again two with smaller populations in front of them.
15th total deaths - everyone country of them is larger
65th tests per million - 33rd for countries with ~5M population or more. (sweden pop 10M)

Belgium - with about 11M people might be a good comparison.

2nd highest deaths per million - #1 if dismissing San Marino with population 33,900.
11th cases per million - 9 of the countries ahead of them have smaller populations
15th cases - 2 countries ahead of them have smaller populations
7th total deaths - every country ahead of them is larger
18th tests per million - 5th for countries with ~5M population of more

With total deaths - might look at larger countries with lower deaths?

does the tests/1M drive the other numbers?
or is it their counting strategy?
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium

Belgium believes its high Covid-19 mortality rate is down to more rigorous counting of cases.
www.bbc.com

What about Swedens counting strategy?

Coronavirus deaths may be undercounted by 60 percent

”No country counts virus deaths like the others. We just have the most detailed method.” — Belgium’s Public Health Minister Maggie De Block
www.idahostatejournal.com www.idahostatejournal.com

Hint: Belgium includes suspected, Sweden is only counting confirmed (and allegedly only in-hospital)
Click to expand...

Solid post. I love fucking numbers.

I would add the land area in square miles of Sweden/Belgium. 173,860/11,849 sq miles, which would have to be nuanced.
 
Last edited:
JerseyPete said:
Maybe I missed it or maybe it flew under the radar, but no mention of Israel in the thread.
About the same size (and shape) of NJ with around 9 million people.
Way more controlled borders of course.
Their covid stats:
Less than 17K confirmed cases, less than 300 deaths. They must be doing something right.
Click to expand...

Proximity to NYC, the #1 C19 place in the world has the most to do with it, doe national leadership probably has something to do with it.
 
Patrick said:
Yes - the healthcare system is still intact - so far i'm a miss on that, but i have another 3 weeks before
the prediction is a failure in the best way possible.

we (i) do not have the data to judge how they are doing - that is why we need a scorecard approach.
Here is their outcome graphs of confirmed cases.. Something changed last week, cause Sweden had a really bad look
with 3/4 of the outcome being death. Bad optics.

View attachment 129115

This includes suspected cases.

View attachment 129116
Click to expand...

I don't know how you are interpreting those graphs or where they came from but is there any validity to "recovered" numbers? They don't appear to mean anything in any country. I would totally discount that metric.

Edit - just looked at worldometer for the US:

1,533,039 cases, 91,096 deaths, 347,225 "recovered". So we are to believe that there are 1,100,000 active infections right now when there have been about 500,000 new cases diagnosed over the last 3 weeks??
 
Last edited:
Patrick said:
The $1B question - with an arrival rate of 1,000 new cases per day, are we better off than we were in March, and let's open things up?
Or - we've gotten it down to March levels, if we open things up, three weeks from now we'll be right back into the growth cycle?
(it will be less severe, because restrictions and behavior has changed.)

Well - we are going to find out the answer - and the 4th of July should be very telling.
Click to expand...

We can already see from states like Georgia and Florida that re-opening in phases is not resulting in a renewed growth cycle. Unless the much higher population density of NJ overwhelms the social distancing effects.

Patrick said:
I'm somewhat in on @Santa's opinion - I'm not scared, but i'd like people to respect my space, as i respect theirs.
If this is the case, will shops be able to refuse service to those who don't adhere to their policy?
Then some shops that could choose to be more "open" - a new way to "compete."
I don't mind what happens to me so much, as i'm an "it is what it is" person -
i'd just hate to kill my wife, or have my kid live with long term lung issues. So I know my behavior will include an n95 mask when i go to a store,
and minimal public contact - no eating out, no beach, 4 max on a group ride.
Click to expand...

Gotta say I really don't understand this. You plan to wear an N95 mask to go shopping but you are willing to do group rides of up to 4 people?? Getting infected is all about exposure - passing someone infected in a store and you are wearing any mask, your chance of infection is very low. But riding with someone infected for an hour plus?? Exponentially higher risk. Does not compute.
 
rick81721 said:
1,533,039 cases, 91,096 deaths, 347,225 "recovered". So we are to believe that there are 1,100,000 active infections right now when there have been about 500,000 new cases diagnosed over the last 3 weeks??
Click to expand...

It seems like the virus is always ahead of the science. IOW, there are probably quite a few more infections than what we know about.
 
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