rick81721
Lothar
nope, only 3 of 29 who tested positive later had fevers.
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
nope, only 3 of 29 who tested positive later had fevers.
rick81721
Lothar
Nobody knows the mortality rate for covid yet. Right now in the US it stands at ~4% with no accounting for asymptomatic cases. It will definitely come down, they always do. It will likely drop to less than 1%.
rick81721
Lothar
The re-opening will be phased by activity and geography.
doesn't happen at the new pumps - requires an attendant card. perhaps they 'time out' after being idle?
this lets them track the attendant performance at busier stations.
we can only work with the data we have, and model based on it.
if the data changes, the models change.
This follows my original thinking. I don't think i've moved off of it - but i am being swayed by the asymptomatic rates.
Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?
We’re currently battling a global pandemic unlike any we’ve seen in over a century. But it’s also not the first modern virus we’ve faced.
fivethirtyeight.com
my one question would be 'What is the asymptomatic rate in the 60/70/80 age cohorts x co-morbidity?" -
Seems like some of these group living facilities can really take a beating.
Worse than the cruise ships?
I'm still not convinced the testing rate is making a difference - nj was testing 30% positive because of vetting.
if they loosen the requirements for testing, how many more are they going to find? if they tripled the number of tests,
to get it down to the 10% other places are seeing - what will it really go down to? 12%? TBD i guess.
As Rick noted, staged re-open. But who is going out into the wild when they do?
is the 60+ crowd going to get together for twofers at 4pm? That buffet isn't looking so good now.
How normal can it be until there is a vaccine or proven treatment?
Did anyone see the article that touted the "imperfect vaccine" - just enough warning for the body that if you do get it,
that the system is ready for it. Interesting approach - may be easier to create than one which is 100% effective.
Might be cool to make it corona centric, rather than strain specific - not sure if possible. just blue-sky.
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mntal
Well-Known Member
These updates are great - keep them coming. On the surface seems like there is a sizable disconnect between what we are being fed and what is reality - no surprise there, but its good to get this message out.
thegock
Well-Known Member
OK, but I didn't say that I did.
From the New York Times regarding The Diamond Princess:
“The “case fatality rate,” which included only those who showed symptoms, was 2.6 percent, according to a study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while the “infection fatality rate,” which included those who tested positive yet remained asymptomatic, was 1.3 percent. (A cruise ship, in which people are in a confined space, is not representative of the more dynamic situation in cities). The known number of coronavirus cases worldwide is about 2 million, and at least 127,000 of those patients have died. The United States has an estimated 600,000 reported cases and more than 25,000 deaths, the most in the world. But many people infected with the virus have no symptoms, or only mild ones, and appear in no official tally… The infection fatality rate of seasonal flu strains, which kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, is about 0.1 percent. “
Of course, the demographics on a cruise ship are skewed. For example, a client told me that @rick81721 would be the youngest person on most cruises.
The excellent, but lengthy, video interview with a South Korean epidemiologist that Paul posted (Post #3,262) above has a case fatality rate estimate of 0.6%, which is six times the flu. This is very compounded by the C19 faster doubling rate, a measure of contagion.
On the positive side, from this picture, it looks like I am losing weight. (Down to 184 yesterday)
a.s.
Mr. Chainring
Dude you better call your doctor. I think you’re a light lighter than 184. 😉
How new do they have to be? This stations i usually use were redone within the last 3 years with new pumps. Maybe it's an option on the pumps that they can opt in for?
Let’s also consider the population density and average income of Morristown versus a Newark hospital. We’re not comparing apples to apples there.
JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
This is looking good:
www.statnews.com
We still need more hard and locked clinical data and controlled studies, but if I were in the hospital, I'd gladly take it.
Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment
A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead's remdesivir is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, STAT has learned.
www.statnews.com
One of these fellas doesn't make it in the book....
And the shark dies a less spectacular death....
@MadisonDan - kids ready for JAWS! ?
And the shark dies a less spectacular death....
@MadisonDan - kids ready for JAWS! ?
w_b
Well-Known Member
I remember as a kid when one kid on the block got chicken pox all the Moms brought their kids over for an pox play date. Back then it was the cool thing to do.
Now the government writes us checks and tells us to hide under our beds like the sky is falling.
Progress? You decide. I'm going to work. Those ventilators slated to sit on shelves for eternity aren't going to build themselves.
Now the government writes us checks and tells us to hide under our beds like the sky is falling.
Progress? You decide. I'm going to work. Those ventilators slated to sit on shelves for eternity aren't going to build themselves.
rick81721
Lothar
yes agreed, mortality will be higher than flu (0.1%) but it won't be "orders of magnitude higher". And yes, when we did that aussie/NZ cruise a few years ago, we were one of the younger couples. I think they off-loaded at least 10 people during the cruise who had either died or were critically ill.
rick81721
Lothar
we can only work with the data we have, and model based on it.
if the data changes, the models change.
This follows my original thinking. I don't think i've moved off of it - but i am being swayed by the asymptomatic rates.
Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?
We’re currently battling a global pandemic unlike any we’ve seen in over a century. But it’s also not the first modern virus we’ve faced.
my one question would be 'What is the asymptomatic rate in the 60/70/80 age cohorts x co-morbidity?" -
Seems like some of these group living facilities can really take a beating.
Worse than the cruise ships?
I'm still not convinced the testing rate is making a difference - nj was testing 30% positive because of vetting.
if they loosen the requirements for testing, how many more are they going to find? if they tripled the number of tests,
to get it down to the 10% other places are seeing - what will it really go down to? 12%? TBD i guess.
As Rick noted, staged re-open. But who is going out into the wild when they do?
is the 60+ crowd going to get together for twofers at 4pm? That buffet isn't looking so good now.
How normal can it be until there is a vaccine or proven treatment?
Did anyone see the article that touted the "imperfect vaccine" - just enough warning for the body that if you do get it,
that the system is ready for it. Interesting approach - may be easier to create than one which is 100% effective.
Might be cool to make it corona centric, rather than strain specific - not sure if possible. just blue-sky.
I believe testing % positive shows prevalence of disease - it's just much higher in the NY/NJ epicenter than anywhere else. Everyone is testing people with the same set of symptoms.
Nothing will get back to "normal" right away - people will continue to social distance, better hygiene, wearing masks. Restaurants will space people out - I would have no trepidation with that.
And there is no such thing as a 100% effective vaccine. I don't see how an "imperfect" one gets to us any faster - several are in clinical trials now. I think they will accelerate phase III trials and approvals.
thegock
Well-Known Member
Well, math is not my forte, but when you combine the fatality rate with the contagion factor, adjusting somehow for reduction by the tamping down of Social D (my favorite band,) you can probably get to 10X, which is the definition of an order of magnitude. Or we can just wait until after the pandemic and you can buy me beer and wings at Petrock's (assuming that shrewtender no longer works there, then) and we can discuss IRL.
not sure i agree - but prevalence would def be one factor.
Bonnie?
ya, I am trying to be as clear as possible that im only talking about Morristown, or in this case the AHS hospitals...not saying Newark Beth (where my mom works) isnt struggling
With regards to my wife being stressed with all of this.....I asked her when she got home the other night how she was doing dealing with the covid patients....She then told me that she had a 13 yr old girl come in who they diagnosed (confirmed) with Leukemia.... Shes wasnt making light of Covid, but she wanted me to know that informing this little girl and her parent of this news was more stressful.