I have deep faith in science, which is why this probably won’t turn out so well.
those would be the "fixed" rules of the simulation we are living in?
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Today's C19 thought.
The deaths trail new cases by 14 days avg (
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R - but this is for january in china)
We have about 1 week of linear growth now - so I'd suspects deaths per day to climb a bit more.
This is going to be the depressing part - sorry for bad news - but look for a flattening about a week from now,
then watch the 'new case per day' numbers.
on the ratio of NY/NJ to rest of USA - the data added in the military and 1st Nation people, so the ratio was changed by about 1% from reporting factors.
Growth in NY/NJ is still smaller than the avg of the rest of the country - again absolute numbers are large.
Watch the news articles, as they now seem to be discussing the 'rate of doubling' -
with the linear nature of new cases, the rate goes up (more days to double) which of course is good,
and can help with hospital planning - the next thing to look at is new vs resolved.
Seems resolved trails new by about 3 weeks. This is the global numbers.
Other countries are discussing things along the lines of
@68nova200's suggestion - Lock down the "at risk", and send the
other 70-80% out, with the "be as safe as possible" but go on with life. Add testing, and monitoring. They are estimating 3 months until
"everyone" is infected/resolved. So a bit different belief there, but same idea - let it happen. Different than Sweden too, which basically said use your judgement, so
we'll see how it progresses.