This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

68nova200 said:
Found this article. its old and doesn't mention coronavirus... and really we wont know the real death rate until its declared over (its going to be extremely low).
www.livescience.com

The Odds of Dying

There are many ways to go, but what are the odds, really?
www.livescience.com www.livescience.com
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It will be low, we have been discussing the probability of B given A -
Hopefully the probability of catching it (A) will be driven down, making the probability of dying (B) from it low.
The concern has always been the the high mortality rate, and the critical care rate (straining the system)

I'm feeling good about the number trends in our area.
Wish we could help you shop guys out - crap is stressful enough without dealing with queue management.

next big problem to analyze is the arrival rate, service rate.
 
My gma was admitted to hospital on Saturday. She was weak for a couple days and fainted. The diagnosis is that she had low sodium. Most difficult thing is she is 91, can't speak english, and NO VISTIORS! She is being tested for Covid19 because it's protocol but she does not have the symptoms. Results take 3 to 7 days. It's the only thing we are waiting for her to be released. The fucked up thing is they moved her to the Covid wing while she is waiting results. WTF?! That makes no sense. Let's increase the likelihood of her catching this!
 
THATmanMANNY said:
My gma was admitted to hospital on Saturday. She was weak for a couple days and fainted. The diagnosis is that she had low sodium. Most difficult thing is she is 91, can't speak english, and NO VISTIORS! She is being tested for Covid19 because it's protocol but she does not have the symptoms. Results take 3 to 7 days. It's the only thing we are waiting for her to be released. The fucked up thing is they moved her to the Covid wing while she is waiting results. WTF?! That makes no sense. Let's increase the likelihood of her catching this!
Click to expand...

sending some positive energy to your gma. ?
 
THATmanMANNY said:
My gma was admitted to hospital on Saturday. She was weak for a couple days and fainted. The diagnosis is that she had low sodium. Most difficult thing is she is 91, can't speak english, and NO VISTIORS! She is being tested for Covid19 because it's protocol but she does not have the symptoms. Results take 3 to 7 days. It's the only thing we are waiting for her to be released. The fucked up thing is they moved her to the Covid wing while she is waiting results. WTF?! That makes no sense. Let's increase the likelihood of her catching this!
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Hope she feels better man...

just fyi tho...just about everything is the covid wing now. My wife just told me that they are putting adult patients in the peds er...which is unusual but does happen on occasion, however she said its the first time she has ever seen them putting sick adults in the peds ER...usually it would only be injured ones
 
rick81721 said:
still based primarily on China data
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Yeah, so about that, the news from China is starting to come out that it might be a tad underreported. I have to say, after watching an animation of the start of this, and the numbers of people that left Wuhan before the lockdown (it was 7.5 million, for those scoring at home) it seemed unrealistic that it had been contained.

Well it looks like it may be far worse than they're reporting. A lot of speculation at this point, but one of the things that was shared with me from Chinese social media is that Wuhan itself is a bit of a runaway train.

Here's 1 story I found:
www.rfa.org

Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.
www.rfa.org www.rfa.org

IDK how reliable that source is.
 
Looking at the interactive map on John Hopkins' web site seems quite clear that China officials did a great job of preventing the virus from spreading across the country as the number of both confirmed cases and deaths outside the Hubei region (Wuhan) are quite low, not so much in preventing it from spreading to every other country. This based on official numbers only off course. Based on this consideration the WHO continuous effort to praise China government's handling of the crisis seems just a little bit out of place. The doubts about the deaths counts doesn't really help with it either.
 
Norm said:
Yeah, so about that, the news from China is starting to come out that it might be a tad underreported. I have to say, after watching an animation of the start of this, and the numbers of people that left Wuhan before the lockdown (it was 7.5 million, for those scoring at home) it seemed unrealistic that it had been contained.

Well it looks like it may be far worse than they're reporting. A lot of speculation at this point, but one of the things that was shared with me from Chinese social media is that Wuhan itself is a bit of a runaway train.

Here's 1 story I found:
www.rfa.org

Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.
www.rfa.org www.rfa.org

IDK how reliable that source is.
Click to expand...

yeah China is a big unknown. The are going to start reporting asymptomatic infections tomorrow - but is this moving forward or do they have read from month(s) ago. I read a paper the other day from the British who've been modeling this and they suggest that EU has as many as 2% of their populations infected, Italy as high as 10%. If true, that is a huge percentage of asymptomatic patients.
 
Norm said:
Yeah, so about that, the news from China is starting to come out that it might be a tad underreported. I have to say, after watching an animation of the start of this, and the numbers of people that left Wuhan before the lockdown (it was 7.5 million, for those scoring at home) it seemed unrealistic that it had been contained.

Well it looks like it may be far worse than they're reporting. A lot of speculation at this point, but one of the things that was shared with me from Chinese social media is that Wuhan itself is a bit of a runaway train.

Here's 1 story I found:
www.rfa.org

Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.
www.rfa.org www.rfa.org

IDK how reliable that source is.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind it is also possible that stories like this is propaganda to keep the world shut down longer (china is making tons of money off this) so why let the rest of the world open back up sooner? I still think the diamond princess is the best case study as to what the "real stats" will be when this is over.
 
Worldwide: for a mortality of 0.1% another 39,000,000 people have to be diagnosed without another dying.
not that the 39M is hard to get to - a 40:1 asymptomatic or mild undiagnosed ratio right now would do that -
is that reasonable? i dunno.
 
ilnadi said:
On a happier note been I've coughing for 5 days and now coughing green shit plus my face hurts. Normally right about now I'd call the doc and say "got another sinus infection, gimme my antibiotics". Let's see what happens when I call tomorrow in the middle of this madness.
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Had to wait until today for an appt.

They made the video telemed pretty realistic. First I had to fill out an unnecessary form, then wait 5min for the doc, then he agreed with my self-diagnosis in 3min. (Not beating up on docs, I know it's the insurance system that causes this). Anyway, thanked him and wished him good luck with all this.

CVS calls to say prescription ready so I drive over. I am ready, i have my shopping bag for him to drop my stuff in, CC sitting on the dashboard, some of the precious hand sanitizer at the ready.

Prescriptions fine but he can't give me sudafed (the read shit that I'm going to cook 10mg of meth from) at the drive-through. Ok, I am desperate enough to go in.

First there's a lady in full combat gear. Mask, gloves, sun glasses at pickup. I hear them tell her it'll be 5min so I tell her my stuff is ready. Too subtle, no reaction. Plan B: proximity assault. I walk up to the window, she retreats.
Now there's another lady right behind me. NP, a good sniffle and she jumps back.

Get the prescriptions, hand him my license for the good stuff. He says is expired. Whaaaa? I look at it: 05-31-2019, not 2020. Oops. Pick up my meds and leave with my tail between my legs.

Ok, it wasn't worth such a long write up but got nothing better to do
 
68nova200 said:
Keep in mind it is also possible that stories like this is propaganda to keep the world shut down longer (china is making tons of money off this) so why let the rest of the world open back up sooner? I still think the diamond princess is the best case study as to what the "real stats" will be when this is over.
Click to expand...
How is China making money off of this? Genuinely curious.
 
Patrick said:
Worldwide: for a mortality of 0.1% another 39,000,000 people have to be diagnosed without another dying.
not that the 39M is hard to get to - a 40:1 asymptomatic or mild undiagnosed ratio right now would do that -
is that reasonable? i dunno.
Click to expand...

Here's the Oxford model - they claim as of right now there are already between 7 and 43 million infected in just 11 EU countries alone. No idea if they are right...
 

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pooriggy said:
You need to calm yourself down in a more healthy way. Alcohol is not the answer.
Have you tried yoga? It's a good way to relax mind and body
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Thanks for the advice. Fitness is my business so I respect how yoga can be a great outlet for relieving tension and stress. I may have been exaggerating about the bing drinking. Maybe not on that particular night, but it's certainly not an everyday thing. LOL ;)
 
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