This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Norm said:
Yes. I think Pat is suggesting that population density has nothing to do with anything. Rick and I think it does.

Or not, I may have the details wrong. I don't read all this stuff.
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ah ok...

i'll go back to fast forwarding thru all my crap music then
 
Norm said:
Yes. I think Pat is suggesting that population density has nothing to do with anything. Rick and I think it does.

Or not, I may have the details wrong. I don't read all this stuff.
Click to expand...

a very small change in transmission rate makes a big difference. I'll yield that the local is higher, but
the conclusion that the percentage of positive test is a result of the density, or more testing, is wrong. It is the result of
more people infected.
 
Patrick said:
fair enough - we'll see where we are in 4 month, as it is US data (jan 20 first us case).
interestingly enough - there are more flu tests happening, because of covid-19. i guess people
had to test negative to get a covid test?

note at the current rate - if we did nothing, as people do with the flu, we'd hit the 30,000,000 case mark
in less than 40 days from now.

-----

on another note, i've had a sore throat for a couple days, and a runny nose and cough developed yesterday.
today i had that wheezy thing going. But

View attachment 122922

I just loaded the nj lottery app, figured with all this going on, i should get a powerball ticket.
Click to expand...
Hope you win!
 
Patrick said:
a very small change in transmission rate makes a big difference. I'll yield that the local is higher, but
the conclusion that the percentage of positive test is a result of the density, or more testing, is wrong. It is the result of
more people infected.
Click to expand...


and more people are infected in a more densely populated area because there is more person-person contact, so indirectly . . . . . .
 
Patrick said:
a very small change in transmission rate makes a big difference. I'll yield that the local is higher, but
the conclusion that the percentage of positive test is a result of the density, or more testing, is wrong. It is the result of
more people infected.
Click to expand...

And more people are infected because - they are on top of each other!
 
And some additional perspective here: if NY state was a separate country, right now it would be #6 in the world in total covid cases. just ahead of USA!
 
Updated to yesterday's numbers. 1 day growth rate. I'll do this every day,
then average it out. 10% is about 7 days to double,

StateTotalNew%new
Montana4612.2%
North Dakota3426.3%
New Hampshire10876.9%
South Dakota3027.1%
Oregon209189.4%
Wisconsin457419.9%
Maine1181110.3%
Guam32310.3%
Washington2,46924811.2%
Minnesota2622711.5%
Alaska36412.5%
Nevada2783313.5%
Virginia2903614.2%
South Carolina3424314.4%
Wyoming30415.4%
Utah2984116.0%
Hawaii901316.9%
Rhode Island1241817.0%
Arkansas2323517.8%
Iowa1241918.1%
Louisiana1,38821618.4%
Illinois1,53525019.5%
Kansas981619.5%
Florida1,46724019.6%
California2,56643320.3%
New Mexico1001720.5%
Maryland3496121.2%
North Carolina4988821.5%
Nebraska611122.0%
Alabama2424623.5%
West Virginia20425.0%
Tennessee77315825.7%
Puerto Rico39825.8%
New York26,348547326.2%
Kentucky1573326.6%
Colorado91219226.7%
Vermont952026.7%
Texas1,02321726.9%
Ohio56412227.6%
Mississippi3207128.5%
New Jersey3,67583129.2%
Oklahoma1062530.9%
Pennsylvania85120732.1%
District Of Columbia1834633.6%
Michigan1,79146334.9%
Georgia1,09729436.6%
Missouri2707437.8%
Arizona3269239.3%
Indiana36510640.9%
Connecticut61820348.9%
Massachusetts1,15938249.2%
Delaware1043652.9%
Idaho813472.3%
 
Norm said:
Support this in any manner that does not involve 3500 words or a series of graphs.

I just disagree with this entirely.
Click to expand...

on any day 1000 get sick from non-cv
on any day there are 25% more people sick of CV than the day before
they all go get tested
the total number of people getting tested goes up.
every day the percentage of people sick from CV goes up

first column "newly sick"
second column "newly sick from CV"

sicksick from CV# tested%positive
100010011009.09%
1000125112511.11%
1000156115613.51%
1000195119516.34%
1000244124419.62%
1000305130523.38%
1000381138127.61%
1000477147732.29%
1000596159637.35%
1000745174542.70%
1000931193148.22%
10001164216453.79%
10001455245559.27%
10001819281964.53%
10002274327469.45%
 
Paul H said:
Question.... so what do you get for winning this debate?
Click to expand...

well - hopefully we all survive. i'd consider that a win.
we can look at the micro level (towns and counties) -
but that isn't all that important whether you got it at The Vault, or
at Flo's. it is spreading, and nobody is immune.

there are really only 3 outcomes. It becomes less virulent, or we come up with a vaccine, or it runs its course (at whatever rate)
 
Patrick said:
well - hopefully we all survive. i'd consider that a win.
we can look at the micro level (towns and counties) -
but that isn't all that important whether you got it at The Vault, or
at Flo's. it is spreading, and nobody is immune.

there are really only 3 outcomes. It becomes less virulent, or we come up with a vaccine, or it runs its course (at whatever rate)
Click to expand...
Was this already posted?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...es-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic
 
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