This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

JerseyPete said:
Are any of those first hand accounts in Bergen County? My first hand accounts have been the opposite of status quo, far from it. Check Holy Name in Teaneck, Hackensack Medical, and Valley in Ridgewood.
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This is the frustrating thing. People are saying "Oh, there's no problem here, all our precautions are a waste" while other places that are further along on the curve are having issues.

I'm not sure how much worse things are going to get in places, but it's pretty clear that as cases go up exponentially, it gets worse.
 
68nova200 said:
www.cdc.gov

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
here's where I got my info... note the start date (coronavirus was in china around the same time)
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fair enough - we'll see where we are in 4 month, as it is US data (jan 20 first us case).
interestingly enough - there are more flu tests happening, because of covid-19. i guess people
had to test negative to get a covid test?

note at the current rate - if we did nothing, as people do with the flu, we'd hit the 30,000,000 case mark
in less than 40 days from now.

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on another note, i've had a sore throat for a couple days, and a runny nose and cough developed yesterday.
today i had that wheezy thing going. But

1585150919839.png

I just loaded the nj lottery app, figured with all this going on, i should get a powerball ticket.
 
68nova200 said:
Remember since coronavirus was announced up to 60 million people have been affected by the regular flu... And up to 60000 deaths from those illnesses. Where is the sensationalism for the regular flu?
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It's a math problem.

About 1% of seasonal flu sufferers end up in the hospital and 1% of those die (0.1%). (SOURCE). About 10% of COVID-19 sufferers end up in the hospital (10X as many) and 10% of those die (~10X the death rate). All the dying suggests many of them will need extensive care and they will not receive if infections continue to ramp up.
 
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Patrick said:
so what do we have? what point are you making?
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As we know, NY's outbreak started in Westchester county. Data starts at mar 6 - there were 35 cases in Westchester, 4 in NYC. Blue line is NYC, orange is Westchester county. Why are the growth rates so different?
 
rick81721 said:
As we know, NY's outbreak started in Westchester county. Data starts at mar 6 - there were 35 cases in Westchester, 4 in NYC. Blue line is NYC, orange is Westchester county. Why are the growth rates so different?
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wouldn't that just be a population and population density thing? i mean NYC has like 10 times the number of people. no?
 
rick81721 said:
As we know, NY's outbreak started in Westchester county. Data starts at mar 6 - there were 35 cases in Westchester, 4 in NYC. Blue line is NYC, orange is Westchester county. Why are the growth rates so different?
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what point are you making? still on the density topic?

And there were 4 confirmed in nyc. you accept that number as the same ratio (confirmed vs actual) of infected as westchester ?

what if i give you that the rate is higher in NYC, the you agree the rate to double is still between 4 and 7 days for any area not putting some measures in-place.
This is still not the reason for the positive test percentage to go up - that is because more people are positive.

at some point, 60,000 had the flu, and the cdc with their "bounded model" claims "up to 60M" people got the flu over 6 months.
we are at 9 weeks, so only 15 more to go - just let me know if the transmission rate for CV19 is higher or lower than the flu,
then let me know if the mortality rate is higher or lower.

Then we can decide if we can agree at all.
 
MissJR said:
wouldn't that just be a population and population density thing? i mean NYC has like 10 times the number of people. no?
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Yes. I think Pat is suggesting that population density has nothing to do with anything. Rick and I think it does.

Or not, I may have the details wrong. I don't read all this stuff.
 
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