one piece crank
1pc Cranky
Single family house inventory in W-NJ is very low, but not because banks/corp’s have snatched them up. In this area prices have risen 30% since COVID.
Possibly relocating. Looking for opinions.
- Thread starter Dave Taylor
- Start date
JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
At least 30%. The past few years I have been looking at homes in the Cape May area. Some have more than doubled.
With the last recession of 2009, home prices dropped maybe 15-20%. Does anyone think the next correction will show some homes dropping 50% or more? I am talking about those that are currently inflated due to Covid.
Since the housing crash ~14 years ago there have not been a lot of housing built in the US. We went from too much housing at that time to too little. Millenials which is a large % of the population came into home buying age during that time.
House prices may come down but they aren't probably going to crash to Pre-Covid levels, they aren't bicycles. Monetary supply has gone up 20% since pre-Covid and that money is now in the system and the dollar has devalued.
JDurk
Well-Known Member
This is a house in my 'hood. Check out the history, 60% increase in '23 for seller after buying it in '16. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/133-Kingston-Ave-Barrington-NJ-08007/38188692_zpid/?
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
The whole move towards WFH started in corporate America in the early 2010’s, COVID just accelerated it. Companies realized how much overhead they could cut and haven’t looked back.
Pearl
THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
Down here a new neighborhood going up on every other street. You can't avoid finding a new home down here.
Just a random builder I looked up that I saw close to us:
New Homes In Charlotte, North Carolina For Sale | North Carolina Home Builders | Ryan Homes
Search new homes for sale in Charlotte, North Carolina from Ryan Homes. We're an A+ rated home builder with 26 communities available in Charlotte. Browse by price and home type including Townhome, Single Family, SimplyRyan, First Floor Owner, Active Adult, Lifestyle
www.ryanhomes.com
These were ~$100k cheaper 7 years ago.
one piece crank
1pc Cranky
I don’t need to do anything, but like you I’m watching and looking. Considering a big renovation plus adding garage space, but my dollars go further selling and building new. How does that make any sense?
Last Fall we picked up a Shore bungalow at well-below market, let alone covid prices. So they are out there.
one piece crank
1pc Cranky
VA is like this - continuous developments popping up All the time.
Pearl
THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
This was our house in Somerville, if you remember it, it wasn't very big or special.. but $416k? From $185k when we bought it? gross.
www.zillow.com
9 Adams St, Somerville, NJ 08876 | Zillow
9 Adams St, Somerville NJ, is a Single Family home that contains 1151 sq ft and was built in 1945.It contains 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom.This home last sold for $325,000 in November 2020. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $445,900, which has increased by $8,920 in the last 30 days.The...
www.zillow.com
JDurk
Well-Known Member
I'll save you a trip. My wife was curious and looked at this. There's a reason for no interior pictures. Currently has a renter, with children. It's not good.
https://www.realtor.com/realestatea...nship_NJ_08204_M92479-44076?from=srp-map-list
JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
You mean worse than this:
307 Fifth Avenue West Cpe, Cape May, NJ 08204 | Zillow
307 Fifth Avenue West Cpe, Cape May NJ, is a Single Family home.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $685,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $718,400, which has increased by $10,400 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single...
www.zillow.com
Previous listing showed a lot more and it was pretty bad.
Mahnken
Well-Known Member
We did 50 percent on the house we sold after buying in 2015. In sicklerville.
42 Scenic Point Cir, Sicklerville, NJ 08081 | Zillow
42 Scenic Point Cir, Sicklerville NJ, is a Single Family home that contains 3536 sq ft and was built in 2002.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $494,000 in September 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $538,200, which has increased by $6,984 in the last 30...
www.zillow.com
Which backs up my whole reasoning why people will still move down there. They aren't building homes like that in NJ, at least not where it's already dense population wise. Sure there's tons of housing going up on old farmland in Hunterdon County, but who wants to live there?...
Also the new developments and such are much better planned in spots like Hunterdon as opposed to isolated housing developments in NJ.
Our old neighbor from Morristown bought in Rock Hill but was looking at a bunch of different spots around Charlotte and it's comical how they build things. All the developments tie together, plenty of parks. It looks like they hired the company that makes NASCAR tracks to build the BMX track and the velodrome near him.
JDurk
Well-Known Member
Much worse. Looks like a much nicer house from the exterior. Drop ceiling throughout. 1 of the "bedrooms", not a bathroom, had a working toilet in itYou mean worse than this:
307 Fifth Avenue West Cpe, Cape May, NJ 08204 | Zillow
307 Fifth Avenue West Cpe, Cape May NJ, is a Single Family home.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $685,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $718,400, which has increased by $10,400 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single...
Previous listing showed a lot more and it was pretty bad.
Pearl
THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
I'm about 45 minutes from Rock Hill, that venue is amazing. They have a 1.1 mile circuit course that they hold road stuff on. Have some acceptable MTB trails. CLT doesn't support it enough, sadly.
This comes in handy as you get older.
Johnny Utah
Well-Known Member
I moved from Point Pleasant NJ to Little Egg Harbor NJ - the congestion, pricing and growth in Point became too much for my wife and I - half of my Block moved out during COVID and were replaced with people from the city or up north - that did change things a bit. Do I miss Point sometimes - of course, especially on a sunny day mid week. The second I go back on the weekend I remember why we left. Will it come to Little Egg in the coming years - of course. If I had kids I would have stayed in Point for the Schools - but I don’t.
I can’t see home pricing falling more than 20%, rates are going up again this fall as Powell does not feel inflation has been corrected - and it hasn’t IMHO. The population keeps growing in the States, housing inventory is low and the Banks hands are tired right now for lending in this environment - that limits new construction starts. Throw in mid-7% rates, that motivates a lot of people to stay put.
I think a correction is coming - I look at financials all day, the common theme with 60% of the financials - numbers are flat or down, cash is down and short term debt is up. Labor is low and the people that are there do not want to work. Defaults on loans are up. In addition lots of companies invested in something that is no longer producing revenue - but the associated expense is there.
I am starting to see the SBA ask EIDL loans gets repaid - not PPP (most of those were forgiven) - EIDL loans - common theme here is a Borrower asks for a SBA subordination when asking for a new loan from their lender - upon review the SBA notes the Borrower is no longer under financial strain and demands repayment - these loans helped fuel inflation - 30 year term below 4%, at no point could a Commercial Bank compete with that while they were available.
Credit standard are up - certain industries have almost been barred by lenders - especially investment real estate.
I would think some sort of correction is coming, but admittedly I have been saying that for a year now. The DOW is still strong, labor market strong and demand for housing is there. I do think items such as student loans going back into amortization will help, but who knows. There is enough liquidity and value in assets for people to ride it out for a bit.
I can’t see home pricing falling more than 20%, rates are going up again this fall as Powell does not feel inflation has been corrected - and it hasn’t IMHO. The population keeps growing in the States, housing inventory is low and the Banks hands are tired right now for lending in this environment - that limits new construction starts. Throw in mid-7% rates, that motivates a lot of people to stay put.
I think a correction is coming - I look at financials all day, the common theme with 60% of the financials - numbers are flat or down, cash is down and short term debt is up. Labor is low and the people that are there do not want to work. Defaults on loans are up. In addition lots of companies invested in something that is no longer producing revenue - but the associated expense is there.
I am starting to see the SBA ask EIDL loans gets repaid - not PPP (most of those were forgiven) - EIDL loans - common theme here is a Borrower asks for a SBA subordination when asking for a new loan from their lender - upon review the SBA notes the Borrower is no longer under financial strain and demands repayment - these loans helped fuel inflation - 30 year term below 4%, at no point could a Commercial Bank compete with that while they were available.
Credit standard are up - certain industries have almost been barred by lenders - especially investment real estate.
I would think some sort of correction is coming, but admittedly I have been saying that for a year now. The DOW is still strong, labor market strong and demand for housing is there. I do think items such as student loans going back into amortization will help, but who knows. There is enough liquidity and value in assets for people to ride it out for a bit.
Sven Migot
Well-Known Member
So sounds like a good time to sell, buy a nice used RV, travel the country for a year or two, buy if/when the correction comes.
If it never comes park the RV down by the river and give up!
If it never comes park the RV down by the river and give up!
Have you seen the price of vans these days? Might just want to pick up tent.So sounds like a good time to sell, buy a nice used RV, travel the country for a year or two, buy if/when the correction comes.
If it never comes park the RV down by the river and give up!