Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
So do you think that 2400 to 6150 since 2020 in the s&p is the new norm? No more 9-11% average?
Tariffs...what to make of them.
- Thread starter Dave Taylor
- Start date
fairly sure I just asserted 2-3 doubling cycles in 40 years. that is sub 7%.
SP500 is also at 5740, not 6150 - or 7% less than peak.
BUT
It is also only 130pts less than it was on 1/1/2025 - down 2%, we can handle 2% down over 40ish trading days?
With most of it coming yesterday!
Assuming this calc is correct - https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/annualizedreturn.htm
Looking at number from 5 years ago then 2972 3/6/2020. 5740 - 3/6/2025,
is 14% per annum - high from a market average perspective - but is 5 years a reliable average?
Really high if working with the peak of 6150.
But we can avoid that short term, irrational exuberance.
3/6/2015 - 2071, or 11% per annum for 10 year - more reasonable
I got in around 1990ish, think it was around 600 - comes out around 7% over 35 years - which means it doubles every 10 years (rule of 72).
this does not include the 1.5%ish dividend that the sp500 throws off. That is not in the averages.
Don't let the size of the numbers mess with ya. It is geometric, not linear.
Use a log-linear (log of price, linear time) to get a better feel for the growth rate.
What do your moving averages say?
why is it so volatile?
Simple answer: Uncertainty. The cost of risk.
sp500 log-linear - seems like a trend? i'm good with that.
I'll do another post on protection of principal in the retirement thread.
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somewhere on here I mentioned that individual stocks are always a risk.
I rode Cisco from the largest co in the world right down to its low point.
Did the same with GE. Dumb - learned my lesson.
A stock can go to $0, an index won't. mostly cause it throws out the zeros!
Article makes a good point - but it cherry picks data pre digital age, and in some cases uses telegraph age info,
to setup its great idea of using an index fund.
doesn't mention dollar-cost-averaging, which most people do with their 401k
John the Plumber
Well-Known Member
Yea, if you look at the window sticker no matter it is an America CO. or Foreign CO. that are made or assemble here it will give you the percentages of say USA or Japan etc. Haven't read the book in years called "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman.
SmooveP
Well-Known Member
As long as it's televised and I can watch it from my comfy chair, I'm in. Will we have team jerseys?
MMuller
Well-Known Member
Can I hire you for my personal finances?
MMuller
Well-Known Member
Just sold the last of my Continental, that I bought a boat load of back in the 90s when I was touring/flying for $4. (merged and now UAL). Through the years I bought 2 cars with it. After the tRump bubble last Nov when it got back up to 90 I sold the last of it. That was the last of my experiments with single stocks. Sometimes I get lucky.
I just want him to explain to my wife why we're still ok financially.
Still?
What changed in her mind?
I suspect you have a budget with some emergency funding items (furnace, car, etc)
You can project your basic costs and income over the next couple years
is there a gap?
if there is, how to close it? (Mrs Gear keeps working indefinitely is not an acceptable answer)
I get the big What if? medical is always there - that may never change.
how to mitigate it?
I don't know that one.
They get a lot of slack, and deserve it.
SpaceX changed the industry - reusability, rate of launch, lowered cost of launch.
They make their money in the commercial world too, not just gvt launches.
They put up a satellite for someone, and 20 starlink cubes go along for the ride.
Starlink is going to replace cell towers.
it is going to do what iridium couldn't.
that is why SXM is done.
global cellular access - cars, boats, planes, smart devices, fixed wireless at the house, all via satellite.
it was a brilliant idea, he figured out how to realize it.
Agree with 100% of what you are saying
However, he wants FAR FAR more money dedicated to this effort....and these types of efforts, no matter how good they might be in reality, need public support......And the richest man in the world wielding a chainsaw as he laughs when people like VA hospital workers are fired.....Not helping his cause.
This is probably the big one having been through it once already. I just laid there trying not to die while she had to deal with the the ridiculous number of bills that came every day.
I'm sure it is a little PTSD - life changing for both of you. Maybe AARP has some info as a starting point?
You (plural) aren't alone.
sundaydoug
Well-Known Member
This was an interesting read:
news.lehigh.edu
TL;DR It's all about money.
Politically Connected Corporations Received More Exemptions from U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports, Study Finds
Exemption grant process functioned as a “spoils system” rewarding political supporters and punishing opponents
news.lehigh.edu
TL;DR It's all about money.
Doom
Member
Facts over feelings. You're almost there...
fact....more money was pissed away on that fireworks show than the CFPB....but just keep drinking your MAGA cool aid.
rjr44
Well-Known Member
always has been always will be; if ya don't follow the money on any of this stuff are you really trying?This was an interesting read:
Politically Connected Corporations Received More Exemptions from U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports, Study Finds
Exemption grant process functioned as a “spoils system” rewarding political supporters and punishing opponents
TL;DR It's all about money.
yup, probably coincides with the same group paying him 5 million for a meeting
Trump reportedly charging millions for guests to dine with him at Mar-a-Lago
Business leaders can drop $5m for solo dinners, a likely way to cash in on those keen to get in president’s good graces
www.theguardian.com
Nothing to see here....just keep buying Trump shoes, watches and shit coin...keep moving