I saw over the weekend that the numbers for the HPCX race in the 3/4 category were extremely low. 27!?
I went through and did some digging and try to answer the whole "is CX dying" question. I have no real idea where this is going, but figured someone would find it useful and interesting.
MAC Races. These usually have larger turnouts, all the way from DC to NY.
Cat 4 Nittany finishers by year Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 107/132
2013: 114/117
2014: 98/105
2015: 105/99
2016: 114/89
So this seemed solid, and it usually always is. Always was opening day in the northeast for CX.
Cat 4 Charm City finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 110/98
2013: 101/92
2014: 104/107
2015: 101/102
Second UCI race in MAC? Strong. Seems like the beginner fields are still stacked as ever with people. This is a good sign.
Cat 4 HPCX finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 65
2012: 79
2013: 88
2014: 78/89
2015: 84/57
2016: 78/70
Another UCI race that seems to get a ton of attention and the numbers add up still, or are constant.
My thoughts:
So it's safe to say that the Cat 4/5 fields are not really going anywhere, The numbers seem to be constant enough to not really make a huge impact.
---------
What about the next category up? The old killer B's, 2/3/4, which then changed to 3/4 2 years ago.
Cat 2/3/4 Nittany finishers by year Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 107/88
2013: 101/95
2014: 106/100
2015: 88/69 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 61/52
This was the first time I saw numbers low. From what I remember it was a pretty nice day, no reason to be missing out on the first (or second day of cross) in the MAC schedule. Strange. Part of me thinks this has to do with no more 2's in the race and are now either forced to A) race the UCI race or B) race somewhere else that day.
So lets look at Nittany UCI
UCI Nittany finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2012: 39/42
2013: 49/47
2014: 39/39
2015: 61/54 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 52/55
My thoughts:
So it looks like we found some of those racers, they are in the UCI category. I think this was the goal from the MAC when they made this decision. Looks like a solid 10-15 person jump which would sort of even out the numbers from 2015, but does not answer the 2016 problem. 61/52 for Nittany versus 100+ from 2012-2014? Now as the year goes on you can expect the numbers to dip, lets see how much.
----------
Let's skip Charm City and go right to HPCX:
Cat 2/3/4 HPCX Finshers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 64
2012: 63
2013: 61
2014: 69/46
2015: 49/41 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 30/25
This stands out like a sore thumb for sure. 25 on Day 2? Day 2 always takes a hit by a couple of numbers, but 25 finishers for this race is alarming. Are they in the UCI race? Lets look:
UCI HPCX Finishers by year, Day 1/Day 2:
2011: 32
2012: 36
2013: 31
2014: 33/29
2015: 47/38 *First year of 3/4 instead of 2/3/4.
2016: 41/38
My thoughts:
Now I can't find those 2's that raced Nittany. where did they go? The numbers for the UCI race are higher than the were in the past, but not as much as they were at Nittany. From an average of 64 races from 2011-2014 day 1, to 38 racers from 2014 Day 2 to 2016, with only a ~12 person jump in the UCI category? This is interesting.
-----
I've already spent way too much time on this, but lets go to the NJ series. The most common race I could think of was the Westwood Velo race in NY. I will do it slightly different this time. There wasn't always a straight Cat 5 race.
Westwood Velo Finishers
Cat 5/ Cat 4 / Cat 3.
2011: N/A / 29 / 23 Total: 52
2012: N/A / 67 / 27 Total: 94
2013: 28 / 26 / 33 Total: 87
2014: 36 / 37 / 25 Total: 98
2015: 45 / 31 / 16 Total: 92
2013 had the largest Cat 3 field, while the Cat 5 numbers have gone up every year. The 3/4/5 numbers remained the same, but the 3's, where are they? Are the in the 1/2/3 race? Holy crap, I cant believe I'm still breaking this down:
Westwood Velo 1/2/3 Finishers, Day 1/Day 2.
2011: 12/13
2012: 24
2013: 23
2014: 17
2015: 17
My thoughts:
Now I know NJ races are not widely attended to begin with, but it seems like we lost even more people somewhere else. The 3/4/5 fields are still the same size, turning over new riders, upgrading riders or disappearing, but they are not in the 1/2/3 race. That "bubble" of newer, non 1/2/3 racers are not sticking around.
----
I hope someone finds this interesting, maybe takes the time to appreciate it (not sure why I went that deep to begin with) and let me know what you think and how you can prove what you feel/think.
Now there are tons of variables for this, competing races in different regions, weather, turnover, etc. I just wanted to look just at the numbers. What are you thoughts?