What will the Post "covid bike shortage" market look like

The post covid bike market will

  • Be like before covid

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Pennies on the dollar from everyone who bought and never road

    Votes: 6 27.3%

  • new bike surplus at shops

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Covid prices are here to stay

    Votes: 15 68.2%

  • have you tried to by an rtx 3080, its going to be like that

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • Total voters
    22
Maybe that's part of the problem though. Why is Wawa paying more ? Maybe manufacturing exec's have to accept a lower profit margin, and be willing to pay workers an actual living wage, not one based on data from 1984. Folks are sick of working several jobs to make ends meet instead of just one.
 
JDurk said:
While it's good to think that manufacturing will make a come back, it's not going to happen quickly. From a 1st person perspective at a manufacturing business, nobody wants to work, nobody wants to get they're hands dirty and they all want to make top dollar, just because, that's what they want. Wawa is paying people more than we do and they can't hire people.
Click to expand...

Sounds like your company doesn't pay enough to me.
 
I thought I was going to see things get better at work, but things are getting more and more delayed.

Anything requiring chips is vastly delayed. Copper costs are hitting my industry hard as wire is really expensive and components that require it are either expensive or hard to come by.

I had guys in my office recently from the largest terminal block maker in the world and they can't supply much in the US because their German head office is hoarding all the copper. *Every* sales person I deal with tells me how they can't get me anything. Every client I tell that there's equipment delays isn't bothered because it's the new norm.

Long term there may be more manufacturing here as companies make long-term decisions on what components are critical and how they can have a supply in the US. It may just mean a % of their highly important items are manufactured here but it will happen. But certain things won't come here. While it may make sense for a small company to make cassettes in the US like Utah mentioned, Shimano isn't going to manufacture XTR cranksets in Japan and also the US, that isn't cost efficient.
 
JimN said:
We have a new restaurant down the street that had to delay their opening because they couldn't hire people. They were offering $25/hour for dish washers and nobody wanted the job.
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$52k to wash dishes? I'd love to see that normalized. Not doubting your claim, but that's ridiculously surprising.

$15 an hour to work in a hot warehouse doing semi dangerous manufacturing? Yeah I can believe they're having trouble finding workers.
 
cassinonorth said:
Sounds like your company doesn't pay enough to me.
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While I can agree somewhat, the skilled positions are paid pretty well. I'm talking entry level, no experience, we will train you the skills. If you want to work, there's plenty to do and learn something that can be taken elsewhere. We're not building rocketships or precision work, but metalworking basics. We've hired some young kids right out of the local tech H.S. Problem is they can't stop looking at their phones for more than 5min. And all of them have already used up sick time. They don't get paid and don't care.
 
cassinonorth said:
$52k to wash dishes? I'd love to see that normalized. Not doubting your claim, but that's ridiculously surprising.
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I was surprised as well.


4F80B35F-9827-42D0-9AA4-8E1C3B5C6950.png
 
JDurk said:
While I can agree somewhat, the skilled positions are paid pretty well. I'm talking entry level, no experience, we will train you the skills. If you want to work, there's plenty to do and learn something that can be taken elsewhere. We're not building rocketships or precision work, but metalworking basics. We've hired some young kids right out of the local tech H.S. Problem is they can't stop looking at their phones for more than 5min. And all of them have already used up sick time. They don't get paid and don't care.
Click to expand...

Trades are certainly not what they used to be...they're definitely not a glamorized career path. My buddy came back from being a ski bum in Colorado for a few years after dropping out of college and is training to become a welder.

It was college or bust for millennials and I'm sure it's still the path being forced onto most kids these days. At least Essex County pumped some money into our tech school recently. What it looked like when I was in school:

westcaldwell_essextechschoolwccampus_googlemaps-1548877055-5870.jpg


and now:

131096308_10158684111919020_7888926268062012624_n.jpg
 
JimN said:
We have a new restaurant down the street that had to delay their opening because they couldn't hire people. They were offering $25/hour for dish washers and nobody wanted the job.
Click to expand...
That's good money !.....but...for how many hours ? Even if it's off the books, if you're only working 3hrs, $75 a day ain't paying your rent. This , hire 10 people , working only 3 hrs each, so none of them can get ahead labor system has worn thin on the labor force. And the economy. If you want the general population to fuel the consumer generated economy, you have to pay enough so they have a little extra money to spend outside of their living expenses. The snake eventually eats it's tail, and then what ?
 
NJ unemployment minimum is $230/week plus the fed adds $300/per week. Not bad for doing nothing.
Not every job is a career-path orientated for a head of household that needs high pay.
 
cassinonorth said:
Trades are certainly not what they used to be...they're definitely not a glamorized career path. My buddy came back from being a ski bum in Colorado for a few years after dropping out of college and is training to become a welder.

It was college or bust for millennials and I'm sure it's still the path being forced onto most kids these days. At least Essex County pumped some money into our tech school recently. What it looked like when I was in school:

View attachment 164464

and now:

131096308_10158684111919020_7888926268062012624_n.jpg
Click to expand...
There was a time when there was testing and a wait list to get into a parochial school and the vo-techs took anyone. Now, its the other way around. My niece applied for an art program at East Brunswick Vo-Tech and she had to do an in person interview and provide drawings/samples/examples of all her original work....
 
mtbiker87 said:
That's good money !.....but...for how many hours ? Even if it's off the books, if you're only working 3hrs, $75 a day ain't paying your rent. This , hire 10 people , working only 3 hrs each, so none of them can get ahead labor system has worn thin on the labor force. And the economy. If you want the general population to fuel the consumer generated economy, you have to pay enough so they have a little extra money to spend outside of their living expenses. The snake eventually eats it's tail, and then what ?
Click to expand...

you kinda made a ton a assumptions there. lol.
 
jShort said:
you kinda made a ton a assumptions there. lol.
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Maybe, but I think you get my point. And though you may not agree, the second part of my statement is valid. People can't buy things, and pay their bills, if you don't pay them enough money to do so.A consumer based economy can't stay strong if the consumers can't afford to buy stuff.
 
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Santapez said:
I thought I was going to see things get better at work, but things are getting more and more delayed.

Anything requiring chips is vastly delayed. Copper costs are hitting my industry hard as wire is really expensive and components that require it are either expensive or hard to come by.

I had guys in my office recently from the largest terminal block maker in the world and they can't supply much in the US because their German head office is hoarding all the copper. *Every* sales person I deal with tells me how they can't get me anything. Every client I tell that there's equipment delays isn't bothered because it's the new norm.

Long term there may be more manufacturing here as companies make long-term decisions on what components are critical and how they can have a supply in the US. It may just mean a % of their highly important items are manufactured here but it will happen. But certain things won't come here. While it may make sense for a small company to make cassettes in the US like Utah mentioned, Shimano isn't going to manufacture XTR cranksets in Japan and also the US, that isn't cost efficient.
Click to expand...
We probably know a lot of people in common.
 
mtbiker87 said:
This , hire 10 people , working only 3 hrs each, so none of them can get ahead labor system has worn thin on the labor force.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if we read the same article. The one I posted is about a guy trying to open a restaurant and not being able to hire kitchen staff even though he's offering more per hour than I made at my first three IT jobs with a B.S. in Computer Engineering, because people would rather collect bonus unemployment than work.

Norm said:
So the post covid bike shortage landscape means we can't eat out anymore?
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Nah, they opened, though we haven't gone yet.
 
JimN said:
I'm not sure if we read the same article. The one I posted is about a guy trying to open a restaurant and not being able to hire kitchen staff even though he's offering more per hour than I made at my first three IT jobs with a B.S. in Computer Engineering, because people would rather collect bonus unemployment than work.
Click to expand...

We'll find out in a month if enhanced benefits are the primary factor...or it's an increased demand in labor since an excess of 600,000-750,000 Americans died in the last year and a half. Also just curious...what was the price of a home when you started in IT?

And...right on cue with this thread. My Commencal Meta TR got delayed indefinitely apparently. Lovely.
 
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