This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

You people need to stop believing everything you read on-line and learn science. Respiratory illnesses are driven by seasonality, and the season is 3/4 of the way over. There may be another little spike in March/April, then a drop to a steady, low-level by May/June, at which point our politicians (the Bidens, Cuomos, Murphy's of the world) will all trip over themselves trying to take credit for it. Lets see what happens next November/December before declaring victory.
 
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I don t see anyone suggesting this is going away. I think we're all waiting for a point in time where COVID is like the flu, with a widely available vaccine and meaningful immunity within the population.
 
jmanic said:
Please show your work
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Mike, Dan, and I all signed up for the Vaccine Queue at RWJ. Dan and Mike had appointments today, although Dan's got canceled yesterday. They said they overbooked. I didn't get a day yet, just the "we'll let you know" text everyday. All of our wives have appointments for their second shots already.

With the article on having herd immunity by April, is it even worth the hassle of getting the Vaccine?
 
jimvreeland said:
With the article on having herd immunity by April, is it even worth the hassle of getting the Vaccine?
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Isn't it based on a large portion getting the vaccine?

like measles - everyone that doesn't get the vaccine puts people that can't get the vaccine at risk.
 
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Patrick said:
Isn't it based on a large portion getting the vaccine?

like measles - everyone that doesn't get the vaccine puts people that can't get the vaccine at risk.
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Yeah, but this is making it's way down into a Flu-type thing. Everything I've read says once it hits that level it's on par with the same risk we take on a daily basis.
 
jimvreeland said:
With the article on having herd immunity by April, is it even worth the hassle of getting the Vaccine?
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I'm not so sure big direction changes are warranted by one article in the WSJ by a guy who seems to spend a lot of time seeking publicity to sell books and speaking engagements. Maybe he's out ahead of something big. Who knows? In January, COVID was the leading cause of death in the US (besting heart disease, cancer, etc). The February drop in infections was not expected by many.

I expect our CTO will address the WSJ article on Monday. Will be interesting to hear his take. FTR, he expected Feb to be the worst.
jimvreeland said:
Yeah, but this is making it's way down into a Flu-type thing. Everything I've read says once it hits that level it's on par with the same risk we take on a daily basis.
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Maybe in prevalence (I have no idea) but it's still going to be X-times deadlier than a typical flu.

My wife got her first jab yesterday. Scheduled through RWJ. Mega site in Edison. Took 55 minutes from walking in the door to finishing the 15 minute wait to make sure you don't have serious side effects.
 
Monkey Soup said:
You people need to stop believing everything you read on-line and learn science. Respiratory illnesses are driven by seasonality, and the season is 3/4 of the way over. There may be another little spike in March/April, then a drop to a steady, low-level by May/June, at which point our politicians (the Bidens, Cuomos, Murphy's of the world) will all trip over themselves trying to take credit for it. Lets see what happens next November/December before declaring victory.
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By extension, would this mean that our Fall 2021 outlook could be indicated by how the Southern Hemisphere manages Spring 2021, which is actually their Fall?
 
jimvreeland said:
Mike, Dan, and I all signed up for the Vaccine Queue at RWJ. Dan and Mike had appointments today, although Dan's got canceled yesterday. They said they overbooked. I didn't get a day yet, just the "we'll let you know" text everyday. All of our wives have appointments for their second shots already.

With the article on having herd immunity by April, is it even worth the hassle of getting the Vaccine?
Click to expand...

It'll be around for the foreseeable future, like other new flu strains, and will continue to circulate even after herd immunity. Get it to protect yourself and if you want to travel outside the US. We can't wait to go somewhere, go on a cruise again, etc.
 
jimvreeland said:
Yeah, but this is making it's way down into a Flu-type thing. Everything I've read says once it hits that level it's on par with the same risk we take on a daily basis.
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Even the current attenuated Covid viral strain on the east coast is more virulent than the average flu. The California, UK type I, Brazil and South African variants are all more deadly than the one here now. In addition there are more cases of UK and South Africa in the tristate discovered daily, with a JH/CDC prediction that the UK will predominate in the US by May. 2020 Spring spike was more deadly than 202 Fall because we didnt yet know how to treat effectively AND the variant was more deadly than what here now (Spring was about as deadly as the UK variant is now). Yes, numbers will go down with warmer weather, vaccinations and post infection immunity. Numbers will still be a danger because of the new strains and unprotected idiots having gatherings like the ones over Thanksgiving/Christmas/new years. I got my second vaccine dose first week of January and have had no concerns so far. Ill also sign up for the boosters covering the new strains when available. The sooner we all vaccinate, the sooner we can all ditch these fucking masks.
 
krink said:
Even the current attenuated Covid viral strain on the east coast is more virulent than the average flu. The California, UK type I, Brazil and South African variants are all more deadly than the one here now. In addition there are more cases of UK and South Africa in the tristate discovered daily, with a JH/CDC prediction that the UK will predominate in the US by May. 2020 Spring spike was more deadly than 202 Fall because we didnt yet know how to treat effectively AND the variant was more deadly than what here now (Spring was about as deadly as the UK variant is now). Yes, numbers will go down with warmer weather, vaccinations and post infection immunity. Numbers will still be a danger because of the new strains and unprotected idiots having gatherings like the ones over Thanksgiving/Christmas/new years. I got my second vaccine dose first week of January and have had no concerns so far. Ill also sign up for the boosters covering the new strains when available. The sooner we all vaccinate, the sooner we can all ditch these fucking masks.
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Is this all based on your expert scientific opinion? Also, attenuated means that the virus was somehow manipulated to be less effective, in this context anyway. And there is no evidence that these new variants escape the protection conferred by the vaccine(s). There is also zero confirmed evidence that this virus changes its antigenicity due to mutation, or the classic antigenic drift/shift mechanism of influenza.
 
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Monkey Soup said:
Is this all based on your expert scientific opinion? Also, attenuated means that the virus was somehow manipulated to be less effective, in this context anyway. And there is no evidence that these new variants by the protection conferred by the vaccine(s). There is also zero confirmed evidence that this virus mutates or changes its antigenicity due to mutation, or the classic antigenic drift/shift mechanism of influenza.
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Yes, from my MD and my MS and the opinion is based upon the scientific evidence published to date. Yes, attenuation can be manufactured but also can happen through natural mutation. Its antigenicity has been altered through mutation, hence ppl getting more than one episode of infection and the variability of vaccine effectiveness based upon strain.
 
krink said:
Yes, from my MD and my MS and the opinion is based upon the scientific evidence published to date. Yes, attenuation can be manufactured but also can happen through natural mutation. Its antigenicity has been altered through mutation, hence ppl getting more than one episode of infection and the variability of vaccine effectiveness based upon strain.
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Really? Because there's a lot there that sounds like you just pulled it out of your ass. Please, clarify for me the biochemical mechanism by which this attenuation happens for COVID, and show me the evidence where immunologically it alters the crown proteins to such an extent that it evades immunity. Variability of the vaccine effectiveness based on strain? Really? Explain that one also, because that's not scientifically proven either. And this "more virulent than the average flu" statement. What exactly is the average flu? Influenza kills between 14 and 60k people in the US yearly, so there is no "average" flu, and there have been a few doozies over the years. Its people like you who spew this uninformed bullshit on the internet, multiplied by the social media effect, hat's led to so much of the confusion and misinformation that's out there. If you're really an MD, man, I hope I never end up in your hospital.
 
Monkey Soup said:
Really? Because there's a lot there that sounds like you just pulled it out of your ass. Please, clarify for me the biochemical mechanism by which this attenuation happens for COVID, and show me the evidence where immunologically it alters the crown proteins to such an extent that it evades immunity. Variability of the vaccine effectiveness based on strain? Really? Explain that one also, because that's not scientifically proven either. And this "more virulent than the average flu" statement. What exactly is the average flu? Influenza kills between 14 and 60k people in the US yearly, so there is no "average" flu, and there have been a few doozies over the years. Its people like you who spew this uninformed bullshit on the internet, multiplied by the social media effect, hat's led to so much of the confusion and misinformation that's out there. If you're really an MD, man, I hope I never end up in your hospital.
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Peace brother. Just trying to help protect my fellow bikers.
 
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