This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

rick81721 said:
Stanford study shows lockdowns not very effective - most transmission happening at home.

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-lock...ry-measures-international-study-shows-1561656
Click to expand...


i'm not pro shut-down

but....

if you cut the branch off the tree, the bugs can't get to the leaves.
the problem with that approach is kinda obvious.

a person goes to a restaurant - infects 5 people, they go home and infect 2 each.
so 5 infections at restaurant, 10 at home. so more at home.

The author is also anti-lockdown/pro-herd immunity, and used a model - change the parameters of the model
and the results change.

study that shows lockdowns are the most effective means. (hint: they used a model)

www.nature.com

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature

Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions—particularly lockdowns—have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

The "rules" put in place are meant to modify peoples' behavior.
So how people adhere to the rules is more important than the actual rule!
 
Patrick said:
The "rules" put in place are meant to modify peoples' behavior.
So how people adhere to the rules is more important than the actual rule!
Click to expand...

That's the point - human nature dictates that lockdowns are unsustainable and are just a short-term "fix" to flatten the curve.

Vaccination is the only real fix. Hey Florida is well over 1 million so far - officially the number is about 1.1 million but local health officials are saying they are prioritizing actual vaccination rather than documentation into the state database so there is a significant lag.
 
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rick81721 said:
That's the point - human nature dictates that lockdowns are unsustainable and are just a short-term "fix" to flatten the curve.

Vaccination is the only real fix. Hey Florida is well over 1 million so far - officially the number is about 1.1 million but local health officials are saying they are prioritizing actual vaccination rather than documentation into the state database so there is a significant lag.
Click to expand...

...so now there's a lag????


Clearly my monthly cue to revisit post #3945.

Dead Bodies: 24,138 v. 1,218

1/17/21 7DMA FLA 174/day v. 41 on 4/29/20

SLIK RICK


"Are you trying to claim that Florida is getting worse when every metric shows improvement?"

"Consider your audience there."
 
rick81721 said:
Stanford study shows lockdowns not very effective - most transmission happening at home.

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-lock...ry-measures-international-study-shows-1561656
Click to expand...

Yeah, they happen at home after someone goes out, gets infected and brings it there. One person gets infected, 5 people in the house get infected. Obvious math is obvious. If the babysitter hadn't come over (had she been, let's call it, "sheltered in place") the family wouldn't have gotten sick.

Regardless, directly from the article you linked:

A study published in the journal Nature by researchers at Imperial College London in June found that some 3.1 million deaths had been averted due to lockdowns across Europe early on in the pandemic.

"This data suggests that without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from COVID-19. The rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries we study," Dr. Samir Bhatt, an author of the study from Imperial College London said in June, according to the university.
Click to expand...

My dad got his first shot last week in Jacksonville. No appointment, stood in line for 2hrs. He said they were extremely efficient - just lots of people in line. Received Phizer.
 
thegock said:
...so now there's a lag????


Clearly my monthly cue to revisit post #3945.

Dead Bodies: 24,138 v. 1,218

1/17/21 7DMA FLA 174/day v. 41 on 4/29/20

SLIK RICK


"Are you trying to claim that Florida is getting worse when every metric shows improvement?"

"Consider your audience there."
Click to expand...

Haha looks like old man @thegock is off his meds again. What's all this babbling about - of course there is always a lag in data - same with infections and especially deaths. Hey FL % pos has been dropping for 2 weeks now - significantly higher in NJ. And of course, deaths/1M population NJ is still more than twice that here.
 
rick81721 said:
Haha looks like old man @thegock is off his meds again. What's all this babbling about - of course there is always a lag in data - same with infections and especially deaths. Hey FL % pos has been dropping for 2 weeks now - significantly higher in NJ. And of course, deaths/1M population NJ is still more than twice that here.
Click to expand...
desantis
from santis
from santos
from saints
as in fallen from saints.
he is the devil

El Santo de la muerte

besides, most of nj deaths were actually the flu.
and fla is under-reporting
and we have less people to spread the death over.
🙄
 
Star Ledger has an interesting article that over 50% of these new cases in NJ are asymptomatic. Their saying the spread in nursing homes is still unreal and obviously deadly. Sad, we need to do better, I know their potentially in their final stage of life, but we could do better to control it.
 
Patrick said:
i'm not pro shut-down

but....

if you cut the branch off the tree, the bugs can't get to the leaves.
the problem with that approach is kinda obvious.

a person goes to a restaurant - infects 5 people, they go home and infect 2 each.
so 5 infections at restaurant, 10 at home. so more at home.

The author is also anti-lockdown/pro-herd immunity, and used a model - change the parameters of the model
and the results change.

study that shows lockdowns are the most effective means. (hint: they used a model)

www.nature.com

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature

Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions—particularly lockdowns—have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

The "rules" put in place are meant to modify peoples' behavior.
So how people adhere to the rules is more important than the actual rule!
Click to expand...
Since month 2, I have not been pro shutdown and our federal government has proven to us that they are not prepared to take on the responsibility and cost of keeping businesses and families afloat during an actual shutdown. Not the fake bs half shutdowns that we have gone through and crippled our economy while doing little to curb the pandemic. The vaccine is the only way out at this point.
 
rustynuts said:
Star Ledger has an interesting article that over 50% of these new cases in NJ are asymptomatic. Their saying the spread in nursing homes is still unreal and obviously deadly. Sad, we need to do better, I know their potentially in their final stage of life, but we could do better to control it.
Click to expand...
I believe the nursing homes should have all been given at least their first doses of the vaccine. At least three ones I know of have. But yea, I know plenty of nurses that just DGAF and dine in restaurants and go to bars as if it were the before time. They've all slowly ended up with covid, and have given it to their families and friends. Everyone I know that has stayed relatively cautious has so far managed to evade it.
 
rick81721 said:
We go regularly. None we go to are crowded, there is social distancing and waiters always wear masks.
Click to expand...
IIRC, you won't ride in a group, which seems to be much safer than sitting in a restaurant with strangers, distancing or not. I'm completely the opposite. No restaurants, lots of group rides!
 
mfennell said:
IIRC, you won't ride in a group, which seems to be much safer than sitting in a restaurant with strangers, distancing or not. I'm completely the opposite. No restaurants, lots of group rides!
Click to expand...

I disagree. If someone in a group ride is infected they are shedding much more virus with exertion and you are riding in their plume for over 1 hour. We don't linger in restaurants.
 
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