This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

thegock said:
An old client cancelled a large off site conference last week.

Cost $1 million.

This is clearly going to affect the economy quite a bit.

For context, the year of the Spanish flu, the U.S. economy contracted 5%.
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That is true, however the Spanish flu killed between 20 and 50 million people.... Thats as high as 2.7% of the world's population in 1918.... Plus wwi ending... Thats a huge group of people suddenly not working/buying stuff. But they also didn't have our modern media panic machine either so...
 
UtahJoe said:
That is true, however the Spanish flu killed between 20 and 50 million people.... Thats as high as 2.7% of the world's population in 1918.... Plus wwi ending... Thats a huge group of people suddenly not working/buying stuff. But they also didn't have our modern media panic machine either so...
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675,000 in the U.S.

Many were due to not curtailing social contact soon enough. See Saturday's W$J article about the Spanish flu on the front page of the second or third section. ????????
 
These colleges are going to screw themselves in the long run. Why pay all that money to physically go? They proved they can do it all online. Why do I need this massive infrastructure and new buildings and stuff.....looks like all I need is an internet connection.
 
ekuhn said:
These colleges are going to screw themselves in the long run. Why pay all that money to physically go? They proved they can do it all online. Why do I need this massive infrastructure and new buildings and stuff.....looks like all I need is an internet connection.
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Truth!

I’ve got one heading back to college after a year off and another one applying for September.

Maybe I should start negotiating the price based on that so I can save some money and buy a real MTB one day.
 
You have it backwards. They remove the bulk of building cost/maint. increase class size and charge the same per credit they were before. Make all the exams so that they can be graded via automation and rake in the $$$.


The response from ALL levels of education makes it clear this has been an agenda item for a while. “The Machine” gets richer but the Students and the Teachers will of course get short shrift as is always the case.
 
Juggernaut said:
You have it backwards. They remove the bulk of building cost/maint. increase class size and charge the same per credit they were before. Make all the exams so that they can be graded via automation and rake in the $$$.


The response from ALL levels of education makes it clear this has been an agenda item for a while. “The Machine” gets richer but the Students and the Teachers will of course get short shrift as is always the case.
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Will never work completely on-line. Some majors yes, others no. You want to study science, and actually learn something, you need to be there hands-on, in a lab. Want to do post-grad work? It’s all day in a lab. Otherwise nothing will ever get cured again.
 
ekuhn said:
These colleges are going to screw themselves in the long run. Why pay all that money to physically go? They proved they can do it all online. Why do I need this massive infrastructure and new buildings and stuff.....looks like all I need is an internet connection.
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University of Phoenix started corona.
 
Captain Brainstorm said:
Will never work completely on-line. Some majors yes, others no. You want to study science, and actually learn something, you need to be there hands-on, in a lab. Want to do post-grad work? It’s all day in a lab. Otherwise nothing will ever get cured again.
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amazon lab hood, and titration kits!
and of course the bunsen burner for fire!
and erlenmeyer flask - cause it is better than a beaker.

agree - plus the common suffering builds character.

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do we have a handle on the chance of getting covid-19 given contact?
the clustering from close-quarters contact (the boston conference) will be interesting to analyze.

I have tix to the NCAA round 2 games in albany. screwed.
 
Dr Anthony Fauci is the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. His informed (not pulled out of his ass) opinion is that the ultimate death rate will be close to 1% although current data looks like 2-2.5. That's still 10X seasonal flu, which killed 34k last year. It's 50X H1N1, which killed about 12k in the US in 2009/10.

This was posted to another forum (and originated in a Physicians FB group) from a retired physician living in Italy. When you have a geometric progression (doubling every 4 days) you encounter a serious resource problem. In parts of Italy, they have to choose who gets intubated and who doesn't.

From a retire OB/GYN living in Northern Italy. Shared in ER group. Thank you Dr Lehman for using your brain!

Shared from PDG with permission:

“I'm not an expert on this virus or any other virus for that matter. I am a US trained OBGYN Ex-Pat living in Verona Italy (Northern Italy, in the hot zone). I was asked to share my thoughts so here goes.

We all started off thinking that this was some overblown flu, making jokes and not understanding why China was in lockdown. Then the cases began to multiply at a freakish rate. We believed this was because we were testing EVERYONE and finding cases that had no symptoms. Then the ICU’s of some parts of Lombardy (all around Milan) began to fill up and overflow. Today March 9th 2020 some hospitals in those areas have implemented a triage system as to who will be intubated and who will not (people over 70 and or with co-morbidities).

Let me back up a little. This is not a zombie apocalypse. The actual percentage of people dying is really low. Children and young adults seem to not be affected with more than flu-like symptoms. In the beginning only elderly with comorbidities or smokers were getting really sick, just like a really bad influenza outbreak. This was all great until younger (think 50’s) and relatively healthy people began to become very ill in addition to the large number of already sick.

The real problem is 3-fold here in Italy, 2 virus related. (again my opinion)

1) It seems to be stunningly infective. Surviving 12 hours on metal surfaces (that’s right, door handles and all).

2) Here, about 10% of the infected need ICU beds and around 4-5% need ventilators due to ARDS. This is the BIG BIG problem and why Italy quarantined 16 million people and why multi-billion-euro soccer games are played in empty stadiums (What is 4-5% of 16 million? We don’t have that many ventilators).

Italy is not a third world country and our hospitals are set up pretty much like the ones in the US. You might debate that we have a lower threshold for admission and longer stays vs the US but this is a RESOURCE ISSUE. There are not enough ventilators for the number of people who need them. This is due to sheer volume and THIS is the REAL problem. This is why countries are in lockdown and freaking out. This is a real medical emergency and doctors are now deciding who lives (gets intubated) and who does not. Couple this with the median age of the sick becoming younger and things get worse.

3) Italians (the people, not doctors) are undisciplined in some things. They have been given guidelines, like stay at home as much as possible and many do whatever in spite of this. The ski resorts are full for example. This helps to continue the spread of the disease. On the other hand, at the supermarket the other day, for the first time in 15 years I saw a single file line with people 3 feet away from each other without police or guns involved.

So: The faster the virus is contained the lower number of ventilators will be needed.

1. Wash. Your. Hands. Wash them so much. If you can’t wash use the gels and hand sanitizers. Maybe stop shaking hands, some kind of elbow bump would be cool.

2. Don’t pick your nose. Or put your fingers in your mouth, on your lips, or in your eyes.

3. Surgical masks seem to be enough to limit the spread AND protect you from disease. FFP2 / 3 only if you are working directly on a Covid-19 patient. Also do not put an FFP mask on a sick person, most have valves and that allows the virus OUT – provides NO protection for others.

4. Sanitize the objects that lots of other people touch,

5. Social distancing. Do it. This means keeping people apart from one another (preferably 6 feet apart, and sanitizing shared objects).

6. Travel is about to be screwed. Plan for it and around it. I would not say travel somewhere I would not be happy to be stuck at for 3-6 weeks.

7. If you are sick, stay home. For the love of all that is holy. Stay at home.

8. If school or other events are cancelled and or you are asked to limit non-essential movement. Just do it.

I didn't write this for professional purposes, I am not an expert but I do have a brain (at least I think I do). Hope this helps in some way.

I LEAVE YOU WITH: THIS IS NOT A NORMAL FLU.

Don’t panic, toilet paper will continue to be made, at the same time do not BLOW THIS OFF.

Let’s hope warm weather comes very very soon.

J.Stefano Lehman MD, OBGYN”
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Norm said:
Wait so the seasonal flu is/was 5x more deadly than H1N1?
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Weird, right? The numbers all over the place though. One thing I read is that we were super prepared for it, which helped. The reproduction rate was higher than typical and hospitals were well prepared for an influx of patients.
 
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