This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

68nova200 said:
I still don't understand why gvernment is going into all out panic mode for something that has a 97% mild case rate with a very obvious extremely low infection rate. Completely absurd.
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I can't say if it's absurd or not, I'm not an expert, nor pretend to be.

However when I look at the #s, the fact that we're leveling out and/or dropping, are hospitals are able to keep up, I'm not sure why we're tightening the restrictions, if not bringing them closer to where we were 2 weeks ago.

Since we can't 100% stop the virus and are trying to minimize a 2nd or 3rd wave, along with building a herd immunity (Vaccine is off the table of realistic probabilities) I'm not sure why we're not allowing the population that is low-risk to be minimally exposed. Instead we're stopping more construction, closing public parks, etc.

In the end it seems this will drag this out longer.

I'm willing to hear opposing viewpoints to this. It seems we went from flattening the curve to keep it under our hospital capacity, to flattening it as low as possible, which widens it
 
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Bike N Gear said:
What was the alternative choice? Don't require social distancing and just see what happens?
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Personally I think there's a middle ground. Social distancing + Masks. Minimizing the amount of people in food stores, etc, that all makes sense. Keeps workers from getting sick at the higher rates. But we're going to just drag this on forever if we keep the infection rate too low.

Really, we're in a middle ground now. The opposite end would be total lockdown.
 
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I just put on a face mask for the first time. Standing in line waiting to get into Wegmans, with a bunch of other people that are all wearing masks is one of the weirdest experiences I've ever had. It was very surreal, kind of felt like I was in a movie.
 
JimN said:
I just put on a face mask for the first time. Standing in line waiting to get into Wegmans, with a bunch of other people that are all wearing masks is one of the weirdest experiences I've ever had. It was very surreal, kind of felt like I was in a movie.
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i think it is required now. makes me feel safe, like wearing a helmet going off sweet jumps.
 
JimN said:
I just put on a face mask for the first time. Standing in line waiting to get into Wegmans, with a bunch of other people that are all wearing masks is one of the weirdest experiences I've ever had. It was very surreal, kind of felt like I was in a movie.
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It’s the definition of surreal. Perfect word for it.
 
It's not that we're
JimN said:
I just put on a face mask for the first time. Standing in line waiting to get into Wegmans, with a bunch of other people that are all wearing masks is one of the weirdest experiences I've ever had. It was very surreal, kind of felt like I was in a movie.
Click to expand...

It helps to call people names quietly through your mask in public. Then when they say "What?" say something kind much louder.
 
Santapez said:
I can't say if it's absurd or not, I'm not an expert, nor pretend to be.

However when I look at the #s, the fact that we're leveling out and/or dropping, are hospitals are able to keep up, I'm not sure why we're tightening the restrictions, if not bringing them closer to where we were 2 weeks ago.

Since we can't 100% stop the virus and are trying to minimize a 2nd or 3rd wave, along with building a herd immunity (Vaccine is off the table of realistic probabilities) I'm not sure why we're not allowing the population that is low-risk to be minimally exposed. Instead we're stopping more construction, closing public parks, etc.

In the end it seems this will drag this out longer.

I'm willing to hear opposing viewpoints to this. It seems we went from flattening the curve to keep it under our hospital capacity, to flattening it as low as possible, which widens it
Click to expand...
Because no one wants to be the one to make the mistake of opening too early, mainly since it will be political suicide. One article said 14 days of declining new cases to consider reopening. However N.J. is still on a linear curve. There seems to be this theme of its over, But the numbers don’t support that. Yes, the curve is “flat” but it also isn’t going down. This supports that potentially a change was made, but it took a few weeks to get to this point, so opening now doesn’t seem to be the solution and it rise just as quickly.

honestly, I dont know which information outlet to believe.
 
From an anonymous UPS delivery driver...
5 types of customers since the “rona”:

1) Steve:
He has been waiting for this moment his whole life. He has been drinking boilermakers since 10:00 am in his recliner and his AR is within arms reach. He has 6 months provisions in the basement and a bug out bag due west buried in the woods. Steve demands a handshake as I give him his package. He’s sizing me up as I deliver his ammo.

Steve will survive this, and he will kill you if he needs to.

2) Brad:
He is standing at his window wearing skinny jeans and a Patagonia t-shirt. He is mad because there were no organic tomatoes at Whole Foods today. He points at the ground where he has taped a 6 ft no go zone line from his porch. I leave his case of Fuji water, organic granola bites, and his new “Bernie Bro” hat at the tape.

Brad will not survive.
Steve will probably eat him.

3) Nancy:
She has sprayed everything with Thieves oil. Bought all the Clorox wipes, hand sanitizer, toilet paper, meat, and bread from the local grocery chain. She has quarantined her kids and sprays them with a mixture of thieves, lavender, & mint essential oils daily. She has posted every link known to man about “The Rona” on her social media. She will spray you if you break the 6 ft rule. I will leave her yet another case of toilet paper.

She will last longer than Brad, but not Steve.

4) Karen:
She has called everybody and read them the latest news on “The Rona”. She asked for the manager at Food Lion, Walmart, Publix, McDonalds, Chi-Fil-A, and Vons all before noon demanding more toilet paper. Karen’s kids are currently faking “The Rona” to avoid her. I’m delivering “Hello kitchen” to her.

Karen will not survive longer than Brad.

5) Mary:
Is sitting in the swing watching her kids have a water balloon fight in the front yard as she is on her fourth glass of wine. She went to the store and bought 2 cases of pop tarts, 6 boxes of cereal, 8 bags of pizza rolls, And a 6 roll pack of toilet paper. There is a playlist of Bob Marley, Pink Floyd, and Post Malone playing in the background. I’m bringing her second shipment of 15 bottles of wine in 3 days.

Mary will survive and marry Steve.
Together they will repopulate the earth.
May God have mercy on us all.”
 
stb222 said:
Because no one wants to be the one to make the mistake of opening too early, mainly since it will be political suicide. One article said 14 days of declining new cases to consider reopening. However N.J. is still on a linear curve. There seems to be this theme of its over, But the numbers don’t support that. Yes, the curve is “flat” but it also isn’t going down. This supports that potentially a change was made, but it took a few weeks to get to this point, so opening now doesn’t seem to be the solution and it rise just as quickly.

honestly, I dont know which information outlet to believe.
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i was reading something that took the telephone movement data for a group of people who they track, and since
the order was put in place, "stay at home" meant 60% of the people stayed "near" where they sleep on any day - previously it was less than 10%
that doesn't mean 40% are meeting up with people, just not staying home - sample size was something like 100,000 in the
ny/nj area. i'll try to find it.

here is an interesting one - looking at today's new cases -
about 66% of the new cases came from outside ny/nj,
although they are only 55% of the total cases (tweaked source from worldometers.info)

total cases 4/13new cases 4/13instantaneous
growth rate		% of total
All584,99326,6354.8%
NY+NJ260,23989743.6%44.49%
Not-NY-NJ324,75417,6615.8%55.51%

The surrounding states have the highest instantaneous rate in the country (aside from NE & SD)
3day/5day/20day averages

PA @6% 36th row, then.

1586829275739.png
there are 4 header rows, and DC to make 55 rows of data.
 
Patrick said:
here is an interesting one - looking at today's new cases -
about 66% of the new cases came from outside ny/nj,
although they are only 55% of the total cases (tweaked source from worldometers.info)

Click to expand...

That's not a surprise, is it? If covid infections were evenly dispersed throughout the US, ny/nj should only account for 9% of cases. As things get better in the epicenter, their percentage of new cases will drop.
 
rick81721 said:
That's not a surprise, is it? If covid infections were evenly dispersed throughout the US, ny/nj should only account for 9% of cases. As things get better in the epicenter, their percentage of new cases will drop.
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this goes against the density theory?
Since confirmed is a proxy for actual, the chance of getting it in NY/NJ is higher,
if everyone across the country is doing the distancing thing "the same"

In that case, the places which are less dense, with fewer seeds, should see slower growth?

With the ring of higher % growth surrounding NYC/NJ, it may be more of a wave that is going to spread?

People think it is an "urban problem" and are lax about maintaining distance, wearing masks, etc. ?

we'll get an answer in a few weeks -
---
antibody tests should be out sometime next month.
Rapid saliva test just opened at RVCC - need a script and to be a somerset/hunterdon resident.
 
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