This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Im sorry, but there was NO WAY hospitals were not going to run low on ventilators...I mean unless you can say they knew what today was going to be like about a year ago.....Ventilators are not microwave ovens...They are complicated machines made by only a handful of companies...they were never intended to be pumped out like honda civics. They are REALLY expensive and you dont spend money buying them to store them in a warehouse. They have maintenance schedule and certifications, so just having them sit costs money.....I know everyone want to blame everyone when we run low on something, but when the demand goes from ~10,000 to possibly in the hunders of thousands in a matter of weeks, things are going to run out. I hope people remember this when they are screaming about how much money their health insurance costs....you think stockpiling 50,000 ventilators will bring costs down?
thanks to big corporations, they still cost $10K instead of $3K: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
 
Ventilators are one thing... But it makes me sick to my stomach that in the greatest country in the world, there was a pt where I had to worry about toilet paper. Are you kidding me? 2/3 weeks into lockdown and still hand sanitizer and masks are hard to come by. Like I said... Ill prepared.

All I'm trying to say is someone fucked up for us to be in this situation and personally... I can't blame someone for being pissed and angry that things are this bad.
 
I will express my views on what has happened in Italy, because I am a guest in this country and I don't feel entitled to judge (I have may opinions like everybody else though).

The government in Italy did not take any preventive measures at the beginning, such as stopping flights from China. Bad initial move. Then they started issuing warning and strong advisories but people did not take them into accounts and kept going about their business as usual until the government mandated quarantine. Now that we have a record in deaths (and I would think in certified infected per million of population) we're blaming the government for not acting properly and not being prepared.

@Patrick , preparing for the worst, while is my mantra really, in this case is not really possible because as @Norm said, you can't store ventilators for that many people not knowing when and where you're going to need them (chances are when you try and use them most won't even work after a few years), and who knows what type of equipment will be required for the next pandemic...should we start storing those as well before we even know what they are?

The best course (in my opinion) would have been to follow the guidelines suggested for self quarantine from the beginning in order to avoid overcrowding of the hospitals and let them deal with fewer cases in a more organized way. If people are not acting responsibly, the only way a government can do that is to keep people in their houses by force (see China), but that wouldn't be possible for a democratic government until there's an emergency big enough to justify it. So the Italian people with the sum of their individual behavior based on the principle 'I know better than my government' gave the government its emergency...
 
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Ventilators are one thing... But it makes me sick to my stomach that in the greatest country in the world, there was a pt where I had to worry about toilet paper. Are you kidding me? 2/3 weeks into lockdown and still hand sanitizer and masks are hard to come by. Like I said... Ill prepared.

All I'm trying to say is someone fucked up for us to be in this situation and personally... I can't blame someone for being pissed and angry that things are this bad.
Planet money did a great segment on this that I will paraphrase.....Toilet paper a product in which demand almost never changes...all year, its the same. People dont buy more at Christmas, or summer, whatever...The only thing that changes slowly over time is the number of people in the country. if you are a toilet paper manufacturer, you probably work really hard to figure out how to keep the supply very very steady. You build your supply chain in this way....its not an industry that was built for a sudden spike when millions of blithering idiots run out and buy 5 years worth.

thanks to big corporations, they still cost $10K instead of $3K: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
In a statement Sunday night, after the article was published, Medtronic said, “The prototype ventilator, developed by Newport Medical, would not have been able to meet the specifications required by the government, nor at the price required.” Medtronic said that one problem was that the machine was not going to be usable with newborns.

As and ME who spent 10 years doing product development....when someone says we can make X and for only $3000....there are many many details that need to follow. This article is lacking alot of detail. But corporations want to make money and boost their stock price, we all know that much. But at the end of the day, the stockpile was still only going to be ~10-20,000....still way way short...and the difference in cost between $3000 and 10,000 is the least of the problem right now.
 
Ventilators are one thing... But it makes me sick to my stomach that in the greatest country in the world, there was a pt where I had to worry about toilet paper. Are you kidding me? 2/3 weeks into lockdown and still hand sanitizer and masks are hard to come by. Like I said... Ill prepared.

All I'm trying to say is someone fucked up for us to be in this situation and personally... I can't blame someone for being pissed and angry that things are this bad.
I think hospitals run on such tight budget that they don't have more than a weeks worth of stock at any given time. I know in the OR that I work in, if something goes on backorder it's an almost immediate issue and they need to scramble to get something for the surgeries to continue.
3m had equipment not being used in case they needed to produce more in a surge of needs for n95 masks. They started doubling their capacity in the middle of January because they knew this would be coming. Even with that, there just isn't enough.
 
Planet money did a great segment on this that I will paraphrase.....Toilet paper a product in which demand almost never changes...all year, its the same. People dont buy more at Christmas, or summer, whatever...The only thing that changes slowly over time is the number of people in the country. if you are a toilet paper manufacturer, you probably work really hard to figure out how to keep the supply very very steady. You build your supply chain in this way....its not an industry that was built for a sudden spike when millions of blithering idiots run out and buy 5 years worth.


In a statement Sunday night, after the article was published, Medtronic said, “The prototype ventilator, developed by Newport Medical, would not have been able to meet the specifications required by the government, nor at the price required.” Medtronic said that one problem was that the machine was not going to be usable with newborns.

As and ME who spent 10 years doing product development....when someone says we can make X and for only $3000....there are many many details that need to follow. This article is lacking alot of detail. But corporations want to make money and boost their stock price, we all know that much. But at the end of the day, the stockpile was still only going to be ~10-20,000....still way way short...and the difference in cost between $3000 and 10,000 is the least of the problem right now.
Tbh... The tp situation was due to stupid and selfish ppl imo. But I mentioned it to illustate how ridiculous it has been.
 
@serviceguy - it's ok, you can say it. Americans can be self-righteous, delusional, & selfish asshats. We as a society will act with rage at the idea that we should stay at home. Then rage against the idea that the government did not make us stay at home.

@Paul H - I have to call BS. If the average American uses 1 roll of TP per week, and the industry generally hold 2 rolls of TP per American in stock, how the hell can we be expected to suddenly be able to supply 50 per person per week? Use the same logic for the masks.
 
Guess its easy to second guess and put blame on the easiest target, but

New York City health commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot, among others, who dismissed the incoming threat of the coronavirus in February.

"The risk to New Yorkers from coronavirus is low and ... our preparedness as a city is very high," Barbot said at a Feb. 2 press conference supporting the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival. "There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take a bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday [Feb. 9].

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio encouraged New Yorkers in early March to "get out on the town despite Coronavirus."
 
@serviceguy - it's ok, you can say it. Americans can be self-righteous, delusional, & selfish asshats. We as a society will act with rage at the idea that we should stay at home. Then rage against the idea that the government did not make us stay at home.

@Paul H - I have to call BS. If the average American uses 1 roll of TP per week, and the industry generally hold 2 rolls of TP per American in stock, how the hell can we be expected to suddenly be able to supply 50 per person per week? Use the same logic for the masks.
IMG_20200313_154455.jpg
I have a box on every bathroom. Kept forgetting to pause my subscription.
 
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@serviceguy - it's ok, you can say it. Americans can be self-righteous, delusional, & selfish asshats. We as a society will act with rage at the idea that we should stay at home. Then rage against the idea that the government did not make us stay at home.
I don't think that at all, not of all Americans nor of any other countries that I know.

I wish that we would learn better from our past behavior or other people's behavior in similar circumstances. Case in point the Italian experience should have been a great handbook of what not to do for everybody else, both government and individuals...
 
@Paul H - I have to call BS. If the average American uses 1 roll of TP per week, and the industry generally hold 2 rolls of TP per American in stock, how the hell can we be expected to suddenly be able to supply 50 per person per week? Use the same logic for the masks.
Not going to comment on tp but for masks... And other PPE for that matter... How long does it take to make one? Is it difficult to make?
Lastly... When did this thing start?
 
Use the same logic for the masks.

they could have adjusted the mask protocol earlier - they were doing 1 per person per person (ie if two people were there to test 1 patient,
both tossed their mask) - i think they are restricting to 1 person per patient, and don't take the mask off between them - maybe the
"production line" testing allows this now, where before they saw a person, then went to do something else...???

it was a simple math formula - the arrival rate was predictable.

there are many "could haves" - and it isn't to blame someone, it is to learn for next time.

as a pilot, when i read an accident report, i hate to see pilot error, but it is almost always one of the contributing factors,
if not the primary one. I'm looking to learn what went wrong, and try not to make the same mistake going forward.
 
Not going to comment on tp but for masks... And other PPE for that matter... How long does it take to make one? Is it difficult to make?
Lastly... When did this thing start?

I knew the answer but googled "Where are N95 masks manufactured". Quickly found an article with this

A significant majority of all respirator masks, including both the N95 and KN95, are manufactured in China. During the height of that country’s outbreak, China restricted exports of virtually all respirator masks, keeping them for domestic use. As that country’s infection numbers have slowed it has eased those restrictions, but now the US must compete with dozens of other countries desperate to acquire masks.
 
Not going to comment on tp but for masks... And other PPE for that matter... How long does it take to make one? Is it difficult to make?
Lastly... When did this thing start?
Sung, I assume you have family in South Korea still. The way they handled PPE for individuals was very smart. My understanding is that masks were sold at a fixed price to the general population through pharmacy outlets. Citizens were prescribed the mask and told to obtain them based on the numerical day of the month they were born. In other words it was an orderly distribution without price gouging, mandated from the government.
Is it too late or possible to do that now, here?
 
I knew the answer but googled "Where are N95 masks manufactured". Quickly found an article with this

A significant majority of all respirator masks, including both the N95 and KN95, are manufactured in China. During the height of that country’s outbreak, China restricted exports of virtually all respirator masks, keeping them for domestic use. As that country’s infection numbers have slowed it has eased those restrictions, but now the US must compete with dozens of other countries desperate to acquire masks.
This is why I asked if they are difficult to make. They are not. I am sure there are plenty of US manufacturers can make them.
 
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