This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[GSTim]

The point is once the curve is flattened, how flat do we need it? Until we have a vaccine assume that everyone will eventually get it. Do we need modified behaviors anymore?

Speculation is that many more people have had it without even knowing it. A friend of my wife's works in the hospital and was tested for the antibodies for possible plasma use. She was positive, and then all of the members of her family were tested, all positive. She was the only one who had any symptoms, but that was back in January, so no testing was done, assumed it was the flu. No other member of the family had any symptoms at all.

 

[Bike N Gear]

My question is... are we heading towards another lock down due to the health system. What happens to the economy then? Have we adjusted enuff in the pandemic era for our economy to survive if there is a 2nd or a 3rd wave?

Definitely not enough bicycles or bicycle parts for another lockdown.

 

[ChrisG]

Traveling is a topic I haven't seen broached in this thread, nor heard much about through any media-based discussions.

Has anyone in this thread done any overnight/extended interstate travel?

 

[Bike N Gear]

Traveling is a topic I haven't seen broached in this thread, nor heard much about through any media-based discussions.

Has anyone in this thread done any overnight/extended interstate travel?

I know RV sales are through the roof. My neighbor is driving down to NC tomorrow to pick up some 45 footer. Said it was like trying o find a bicycle these days.

 

[jackx]

Traveling is a topic I haven't seen broached in this thread, nor heard much about through any media-based discussions.

Has anyone in this thread done any overnight/extended interstate travel?

I haven't done any travel. I only know of people who drove to get there, and they did't stay in a hotel.

 

[BPaze]

I am immune to this virus so good luck all

 

[thegock]

Let me know when it stopped rising?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,868,982 Cases and 2,727,738 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 131187

Regression analysis.

But, wait, is that #fakemath @rick81721

 

[rick81721]

Regression analysis.

But, wait, is that #fakemath @rick81721

That's global. Look at the US curves.

 

[rick81721]

we'll need to monitor, but it does seem like deaths-per-case is going down.

So i'll speculate that
- we are getting better at protecting the at-risk groups
- at-risk individuals are taking precautions
- treatment protocols are improving

On the flip-side of that - places with low numbers are seeing growth.
- perhaps being more cavalier with masks and distancing
- hi-risk gatherings (seems singing is a no-no)
- FTS

Somewhere between July 4 and 15, we should have a good idea about the success of our modified behaviors.

Why those dates - to get past the spike in cases in major cities due to the protests?

 

[Patrick]

Why those dates - to get past the spike in cases in major cities due to the protests?

my gut is the contact tracing will be working retroactively, they'll be able to see the behavior causing any spikes
either large group, or just people not being vigilant. in addition add in area specific attitudes.

any idea what is happening in oregon? numbers are small, but now showing an increase.



i was on the july 4th bandwagon - but pushed it out a bit for more data

 

[rick81721]

any idea what is happening in oregon? numbers are small, but now showing an increase.

View attachment 131203

Maybe they have relaxed testing criteria like FL and finding more asymptomatics? Deaths/day are extremely low there - see if there is an uptick in a few weeks

 

[JDurk]

Traveling is a topic I haven't seen broached in this thread, nor heard much about through any media-based discussions.

Has anyone in this thread done any overnight/extended interstate travel?

The Social Distancing in Isolation Contest & Never-ending Peter Pan Positivity Parlay

Round valley today. I forgot how little fun this place is - especially when it's this hot and humid. Water level still down in the reservoir On top the ridge enough of that place for awhile - see you again RV in 2025! Brett posted on a thread about the hardest park or something along...

www.mtbnj.com

Didn't see anyone wearing masks in the camping areas. Only place a mask was required, park entrance office and store. Other campers were keeping to their sites and if there was socializing, it was at least 6ft.

 

[one piece crank]

The point is once the curve is flattened, how flat do we need it? Until we have a vaccine assume that everyone will eventually get it. Do we need modified behaviors anymore?

I have little choice but to avoid my 85yo Mom. My Sister runs interference for me, but then she limits outside exposure. I just ran into a friend from HS, local business owner, he, his wife and MIL all had COVID-19. They shared 3-5 days in the hospital, and 8 days in ICU. If a vaccine works it cannot come soon enough.

Didn't see anyone wearing masks in the camping areas. Only place a mask was required, park entrance office and store. Other campers were keeping to their sites and if there was socializing, it was at least 6ft.

Like you, we get out and about, but we don't hit social areas (i.e. more people than "us"), or go places others don't wear PPE. PITA but would rather continue to minimize contact at this point.

 

[Mahnken]

Good news from WHO and makes sense to me that asymptomatic carriers should be less likely to transmit covid to others

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Fake news, but:

WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19: 'There's much unknown'

WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19: 'There's much unknown'

The World Health Organization clarified confusing comments about asymptomatic spread of coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

 

[rick81721]

Fake news, but:

WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19: 'There's much unknown'

WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of Covid-19: 'There's much unknown'

The World Health Organization clarified confusing comments about asymptomatic spread of coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

Not fake news, my statement is still valid based on the clarification and US CDC data - asymptomatics are less likely to transmit the disease.

 

[Mahnken]

Not fake news, my statement is still valid based on the clarification and US CDC data - asymptomatics are less likely to transmit the disease.

I was referring to CNN being fake news, lol. The problem I see with the WHO saying anything like that at all, is that symptomatic people have the highest viral load (most likely to spread it) a day or two before symptoms occur. So people are going to be out there thinking if no one is showing symptoms, they don't have to worry about it. Which simply isn't the case.

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 - Nature Medicine

Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to account for a substantial proportion of COVID-19 cases.

www.nature.com

 

[rick81721]

I was referring to CNN being fake news, lol. The problem I see with the WHO saying anything like that at all, is that symptomatic people have the highest viral load (most likely to spread it) a day or two before symptoms occur. So people are going to be out there thinking if no one is showing symptoms, they don't have to worry about it. Which simply isn't the case.

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 - Nature Medicine

Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to account for a substantial proportion of COVID-19 cases.

www.nature.com

The confusion is equating pre-symptomatic with asymptomatic. Two different cases.

 

[Mahnken]

The confusion is equating pre-symptomatic with asymptomatic. Two different cases.

Yes, and the general population will see it as, "no symptoms, no problem" not realizing that people that do get sick will spread it before being symptomatic. And will prompt people to not worry about taking precautions, like masks and social distancing measures.

 

[Patrick]

Yes, and the general population will see it as, "no symptoms, no problem" not realizing that people that do get sick will spread it before being symptomatic. And will prompt people to not worry about taking precautions, like masks and social distancing measures.

note earlier post - FTS also. Not a whole lot of people that can stay the course for anything for 3 months.
They see the overhead as more work than the "chance of contracting multiplied by seriousness."

 

[Patrick]

California - Seems like LA and Riverside co (just east) missed the memo
accounting for 50% of daily new.

California COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

California COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info