This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

My hospital is up to using one n95 for 7 days. Before covid, when n95's were warranted, you would be required to throw it in the trash before entering the hallway from the patients room (you could get fired for wearing one outside the patients room). When covid came the quickly went to one per shift, now they are up to using the same mask for up to 7 days. They are running out fast. I told my manager on January 24th that she should stock up on n95's. She didn't listen.
View attachment 122731

Morristown is the same
 
I agree....Italy is around 6000 deaths now..... I mentioned a few weeks ago...we had 61,000 death in this country from the flu a couple of years ago. I would not be surprised if we see numbers like that. I would guess the 99% of the population was like me and had no clue that the Flu killed that many people a couple of years ago.

My wife also wanted to tell me that there is no chaos in morristown and its not a war zone there.
It's all fine, well and good, etc. We just want to limit the number of people that are exposed from ice cream runs per day.

@UtahJoe brings up a good point. For all the end-of-world prognosticating his wife at the ER says it's business as usual in terms of capacity & terror. This is good.
My wife is an Oncology RN in NYC at Columbia Presbyterian so she has a much different view of it. She equates it to watching a vine grow right in front of your eyes. Her guess is that the machine will start breaking down by the beginning of next week. She’s a a strong fearless well educated women who doesn’t buckle easily but it’s starting to take a toll on her and the folks she works with.
 
My wife is an Oncology RN in NYC at Columbia Presbyterian so she has a much different view of it. She equates it to watching a vine grow right in front of your eyes. Her guess is that the machine will start breaking down by the beginning of next week. She’s a a strong fearless well educated women who doesn’t buckle easily but it’s starting to take a toll on her and the folks she works with.

I’ve said earlier in the thread that NYC is a different animal. Every single person in nyc needs to use an elevator every day. The rates are outpacing national by a factor of 3.5. Every elevator is a virus chamber.

I think the city needs a much more stringent approach than the rest of the country.
 
I’ve said earlier in the thread that NYC is a different animal. Every single person in nyc needs to use an elevator every day. The rates are outpacing national by a factor of 3.5. Every elevator is a virus chamber.

I think the city needs a much more stringent approach than the rest of the country.
Just to put things into perspective, Bergamo (at this point the world capital of corona virus) is not a big city, population is lower than Paterson a lot more rural. And they have a top notch hospital.
 
I’ve said earlier in the thread that NYC is a different animal. Every single person in nyc needs to use an elevator every day. The rates are outpacing national by a factor of 3.5. Every elevator is a virus chamber.

I think the city needs a much more stringent approach than the rest of the country.

my picture - explains why the "positive" percentage increases.
Time along the bottom, # people along the side. Space under the covid curve/above other sickness is +COVID.
The space gets bigger as more people get sick and get tested. slope of total tests
matches slope of covid, cause people get tested because they are sick.

1585081617479.png

as an exercise, consider everyone being tested every day - with positives removed.
(the test line would start at the top left, and start moving down towards the new case line)
With this exponential growth, as time moved on, a larger percentage of the test corpus would test positive,
until there were not enough left to maintain the curve

EDIT: make that y-axis people tested per day - since the claim is we are testing more.
 
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I’ve said earlier in the thread that NYC is a different animal. Every single person in nyc needs to use an elevator every day. The rates are outpacing national by a factor of 3.5. Every elevator is a virus chamber.

I think the city needs a much more stringent approach than the rest of the country.
Agreed. I give it a week before the Shelter in Place order is given.
 
my picture - explains why the "positive" percentage increases.
Time along the bottom, # people along the side. Space under the covid curve/above other sickness is +COVID.
The space gets bigger as more people get sick and get tested. slope of total tests
matches slope of covid, cause people get tested because they are sick.

View attachment 122820

as an exercise, consider everyone being tested every day - with positives removed.
(the test line would start at the top left, and start moving down towards the new case line)
With this exponential growth, as time moved on, a larger percentage of the test corpus would test positive,
until there were not enough left to maintain the curve

EDIT: make that y-axis people tested per day - since the claim is we are testing more.

Still being skewed by NY. Most other states are seeing about a 10% positive test rate, NY is 30%
my picture - explains why the "positive" percentage increases.
Time along the bottom, # people along the side. Space under the covid curve/above other sickness is +COVID.
The space gets bigger as more people get sick and get tested. slope of total tests
matches slope of covid, cause people get tested because they are sick.

View attachment 122820

as an exercise, consider everyone being tested every day - with positives removed.
(the test line would start at the top left, and start moving down towards the new case line)
With this exponential growth, as time moved on, a larger percentage of the test corpus would test positive,
until there were not enough left to maintain the curve

EDIT: make that y-axis people tested per day - since the claim is we are testing more.

Look at it this way - the last two days about 65K people have been tested per day nationally, with 10K new positives. Take out NY (15K tests per day, 5K positives): then nationally, 50K tested per day, 5K new cases. 10% positive test rate, which is what has been tracking since the beginning (except NY).
 
Written by a doctor in New York City who worked in the Ebola outbreak, contracted himself and survived.


He worked in West Africa on the front lines of Ebola, and he contracted the virus himself. He is one of few American doctors uniquely suited to handle the medical and emotional horror that we are about to face.

These are his words:

“A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline:

Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.

On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good.

Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in.

You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:

Cough, shortness of breath, fever.

They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast.

You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but...

You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet

For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:

Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.

Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.

Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.

All day...

Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient.

By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in.

Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID.

When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.

You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators.

Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.

Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful.

You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.

The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know???

You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family.

You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.

Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.

Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.

We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives

You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.

You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.

You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.

I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.

Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.

And every day I'll come to work for you

3/24/20
 
I hear testing site opening at William Paterson U. Well... I guess riding HM out of the college lot is going to be difficult.
 
Written by a doctor in New York City who worked in the Ebola outbreak, contracted himself and survived.


He worked in West Africa on the front lines of Ebola, and he contracted the virus himself. He is one of few American doctors uniquely suited to handle the medical and emotional horror that we are about to face.

These are his words:

“A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline:

Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.

On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good.

Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in.

You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:

Cough, shortness of breath, fever.

They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast.

You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but...

You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet

For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:

Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.

Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.

Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.

All day...

Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient.

By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in.

Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID.

When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.

You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators.

Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.

Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful.

You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.

The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know???

You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family.

You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.

Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.

Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.

We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives

You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.

You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.

You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.

I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.

Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.

And every day I'll come to work for you

3/24/20
interesting to hear thanks. not surprising but yet of course eye opening. I'm not city oriented but have never had a problem with those that were. I hope we find a way to balance things learn, survive and adapt as needed.
 
My boss is currently on a plane from Florida to NJ. He's trying to do 50/50 between the two places. Completely doesn't understand what's happening up here.

Decided to come up since he feels the need to be up here during this time for the company, meanwhile almost everyone is working from home. It's weird.

Of course while my boss is on the plane... Gov of FL says anyone traveling from NJ to FL has a mandatory 14 day quarantine.

 
Written by a doctor in New York City who worked in the Ebola outbreak, contracted himself and survived.


He worked in West Africa on the front lines of Ebola, and he contracted the virus himself. He is one of few American doctors uniquely suited to handle the medical and emotional horror that we are about to face.

These are his words:

“A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline:

Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.

On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good.

Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in.

You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:

Cough, shortness of breath, fever.

They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast.

You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but...

You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet

For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:

Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.

Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.

Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.

All day...

Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient.

By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in.

Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID.

When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.

You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators.

Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.

Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful.

You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.

The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know???

You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family.

You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.

Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.

Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.

We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives

You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.

You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.

You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.

I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.

Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.

And every day I'll come to work for you

3/24/20
This sounds a little hyped up and propagandaish... Does this doctor have a name?
 
I'm not going to stop living my life any less than I have to. Everything you do in life is a risk. You risk death every time you get in a car and drive on the highway, but pretty much everyone does that just about every day. Life is risk management. Take the risks you want to get the enjoyment that you can. I'm trying to limit interaction with others as much as possible, but I'm not gonna stop riding bikes with my friends if they want to keep riding with me.
to start with, I do not know @JimN so this is just a response to one message.
no, this is not "everything you do is a risk" nor "Take the risks you want"
what this is is driving drunk because you are willing to take the risk to yourself.
we all owe it to our neighbors and not neighbors and fellow Americans and fellow humans to help manage this.
 
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