This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

thegock said:
You left out the 12/31/19 date China/WHO first reported the virus to it's constituents.

But, we will get back to that.

March 1 is 40 days after the first US case was identified.

That was January 21, but you left that out. And we will get back to that, too.

I agree with January 31 re China ban being good, but I don't want to get political here.



1. Take responsibility by not saying stuff that Bloomberg will give Biden the killer political ad that will bury the idiot boy charlatan. People, to some extent, are just waiting to be led. So be inspirational, innovative, work hard and treat people right. Sound like anyone? 10 of 10? Really?
2. I am just spitballing here, but lying Hillary may be just a teeny bit smarter than the Very Stable Genius.
3. In the H1N1 virus crisis that my idiot friends here at the Assisted Living Facility like to blame the Kenyan for, the first of 1 million testing kits were shipped 14 days after the second case was identified. This time? You tell me. Just don't copy off of 4chan.
5. See what I did there?
6. That China/WHO reporting date is when the head of the pandemic response team (Directorate for Global Health Security) at the NSC should have got the ball rolling. Whoopsie.

I could talk all night, but I have to transfer Bitcoin (damn that GTLuke) to my daughter so she can pay her mortgage when she loses her job. GN
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I'll only address 3 as the rest is gibberish. H1N1 was a totally different animal and standard test kits were readily available. They were not specific to h1n1 nor were they that accurate. That wouldn't cut it with this novel virus:

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/diagnostic_testing_public_qa.htm

What happened this time? A totally different test was required, using PCR technology. FDA red tape and reagent errors in CDC's initial test caused initial delays. This is a surprisingly unbiased piece on it, considering the source. They throw in a few trump slams, but that's expected. Would a pres Hillary have gotten this done any faster? Does she know how to create virus tests? I doubt it

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us

Good luck with bitcoin - is it worthless yet??
 
thegock said:
March 1 is 40 days after the first US case was identified.
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so it is now 59 days? doubles every ~4 days (which we said 3 weeks ago)
2^14 = 16,348 2^15=32,796
so a bit high -

13,500 =2^(59/n) today's results estimated.
log2(13,500)=59/n
n=4.3 days

wow, math.

and this is why i don't need to know about infectious disease, or immunology.
 
thegock said:
Ooooooh...I have a customer...


First I have to ask you a series of qualifying questions:

1. How many times have you left your home since Sunday?
3. What is you occupation?
4. Have you ever seen a grown man naked?
5. How many relatives do you have over 70 years old?
6. Sorry, that last one can be a bummer, but stop by and we can

View attachment 122042

if you're into that kinda thing.
2. Thought I missed that one, didn't u?
7. Highest level of education? we can skip that
8. On a one to ten scale with 10 being the best, how would you rate the performance of the Federal Government in the pandemic so far? we can skip that too. I grade on pass fail and if you ride mtb, as part of my plan (more on that later) YOU PASS!!!!!!!!
9. Why don't you ask some after you answer these.
Click to expand...

1 one time we went to see some trains today
1584656148031.png

3. data fluffer aka book cooker
4. Yes I've been to the Y
5. 4 or 5 on my wifes side my family doesn't see the 60s often but I'm not in that line of work...
6. do you need to go to the hospital?
2.yes
7. BS take it both ways...
8. 3, panic mode engaged
9. someone call 911
 
Patrick said:
so it is now 59 days? doubles every ~4 days (which we said 3 weeks ago)
2^14 = 16,348 2^15=32,796
so a bit high -

13,500 =2^(59/n) today's results estimated.
log2(13,500)=59/n
n=4.3 days

wow, math.

and this is why i don't need to know about infectious disease, or immunology.
Click to expand...

Yeah because the biology starts to kick in as it grows and measures are taken. In any event, looks like Italy has not leveled off yet, but the slope of the curve appears to be flattening:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
 
Patrick said:
i wish subject matter experts were how the government reacts to situations.
They react the way the people want, to maximize their popularity.
They run enough numbers to get some statistical significance, and go with the result.

All the people on FB that are saying "I didn't know this would happen 2 weeks ago, or they
would have taken it more seriously." Who do you think they are polling?

Really.
Again, it is the same people that said, "when will we ever use this?" in hs math class.
The talking heads don't understand it either - so they dismiss the experts after the interviews.
"There are 10 cases in the US, and the flu killed 60,000 last year, this is nothing" -
OK, at some point there were 10 cases of the flu too.

can i count my capri or cricket as foreign cars? they were branded with US companies, but were not made here.
otherwise, i don't think i've ever owned a foreign car! Gock, help me out here (was that the tower on murray hill behind lucent?)
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Did you carry over the post from the car thread by any chance?
 
rick81721 said:
Yeah because the biology starts to kick in as it grows and measures are taken. In any event, looks like Italy has not leveled off yet, but the slope of the curve appears to be flattening:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Click to expand...

we knew the measurement 3 weeks ago, and before that, and it proved true - but nobody cared when it was 2^10 (1000 cases)
that was my point - nothing more or less. i missed my prediction last week by more than 10% short. so C- for me.

Yes, Italy seems to be responding to their efforts to slow the spread. Excellent. Good news for us (US), since we were a couple
weeks behind them in numbers, but a week ahead of them in acting. (i think i read that)
 
Let’s back off the political crap...Anybody know anything about this hydroxychloroquine that president Trump was talking about? I believe last night I saw some administration official mentioning a 100% rate of patient cured using it in a limited study in the south of France. Is it solid?
 
serviceguy said:
Ok, we got it. So nobody can run anything outside their master degree spectrum...sounds like a plan.
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well that isn't true, but ya need to know what you don't know, and find someone that does.
then listen, rather than dismiss their expertise, because it doesn't confirm some gut feeling.

i think you know this - but I missed the sarcasm hint
 
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