Biggest crash in stock market history?

Johnny Utah said:
As long as the migrants keep pouring in and taking the lower income housing, prices will stay inflated. IMHO the government needs a housing shortage to keep the housing prices up until after the election. Wages have not increased vs. inflation since COVID, housing prices/equity are keeping this propped up. Deposit accounts are way down and credit card balances are up - people are/have spent through what they saved and what the government gave them during COVID.

I wouldn’t call it a banking crisis, it is a FED crisis. They keep adjusting requirements on the Banks so people can afford their dream home. Twenty years from now I bet the FED requires banks to have forty or fifty year amortized mortgages - if you think I am crazy there are now ten year products for auto loans. Barney Frank partially created the previous crisis by requiring Banks to offer products that placed people into homes they clearly could not afford. The Banks pushed back and were called evil for doing so, then when the mortgages failed and the Government called the Banks evil for putting people into the mortgages. Under CRA if the Banks did not comply they needed to write a check to underserved communities, well banks are not a charity and their shareholders/depositors demand a return so they moved to the mortgages. Also, if the banks want to borrow from the FED they need to play nice with the FED.

Banks are pulling back on lending, the industry has decided Investment Real estate is going to crash in the near future. Banking staff is moving from a heavy hand in lending staff to a heavy hand in compliance. The SBA is auditing EIDL loans and demanding repaying on a growing scale - my guess is they look at PPP in the coming years. The employee tax credit program was shut down due to growing fraud.

Economically we are in a very fragile state right now, the good news for the US is we weathered COVID better than most other countries, but it is beginning to catch up.

At the end of the day - ride more bikes and demand David Taylor move back to NJ.
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This really doesn’t affect the middle class 50 y/o plus white guy that is in the money and content with his house. It sure as hell affects the younger ones that just upgraded to starter home or from starter home with 6% plus mortgages and 2 $800 + car payments. I feel people are in the FOMO point and it can go quite a bit more up before it crashes. People are buying a $700k home that was $350k 4 years ago and hoping it is $1.4 mil in 4 years and they can refi at 2%. I don’t see that whole scenario coming together.
 
Dave Taylor said:
This really doesn’t affect the middle class 50 y/o plus white guy that is in the money and content with his house. It sure as hell affects the younger ones that just upgraded to starter home or from starter home with 6% plus mortgages and 2 $800 + car payments. I feel people are in the FOMO point and it can go quite a bit more up before it crashes. People are buying a $700k home that was $350k 4 years ago and hoping it is $1.4 mil in 4 years and they can refi at 2%. I don’t see that whole scenario coming together.
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I started with a 12% 90% financed mortgage. They'll be fine.
 
Johnny Utah said:
As long as the migrants keep pouring in and taking the lower income housing, prices will stay inflated. IMHO the government needs a housing shortage to keep the housing prices up until after the election. Wages have not increased vs. inflation since COVID, housing prices/equity are keeping this propped up. Deposit accounts are way down and credit card balances are up - people are/have spent through what they saved and what the government gave them during COVID.

I wouldn’t call it a banking crisis, it is a FED crisis. They keep adjusting requirements on the Banks so people can afford their dream home. Twenty years from now I bet the FED requires banks to have forty or fifty year amortized mortgages - if you think I am crazy there are now ten year products for auto loans. Barney Frank partially created the previous crisis by requiring Banks to offer products that placed people into homes they clearly could not afford. The Banks pushed back and were called evil for doing so, then when the mortgages failed and the Government called the Banks evil for putting people into the mortgages. Under CRA if the Banks did not comply they needed to write a check to underserved communities, well banks are not a charity and their shareholders/depositors demand a return so they moved to the mortgages. Also, if the banks want to borrow from the FED they need to play nice with the FED.

Banks are pulling back on lending, the industry has decided Investment Real estate is going to crash in the near future. Banking staff is moving from a heavy hand in lending staff to a heavy hand in compliance. The SBA is auditing EIDL loans and demanding repaying on a growing scale - my guess is they look at PPP in the coming years. The employee tax credit program was shut down due to growing fraud.

Economically we are in a very fragile state right now, the good news for the US is we weathered COVID better than most other countries, but it is beginning to catch up.

At the end of the day - ride more bikes and demand David Taylor move back to NJ.
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We do need a immigration policy..... Do you want to send millions of people back to Central and South America? They are doing jobs that Americans don't want to do,
like most of the work in restaurant and most of the residential construction work including roofing, siding, tile, block work, sheetrock,framing and hardwood flooring.
 
Dave Taylor said:
Was your house almost a over 1/2 million with wages that haven’t kept up for years?
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$300k in 1990
I was making half of what college starting salaries are now.
I didn't buy my first new car until I was 35
Learned how to butcher whole chickens into 3 meals. Grew food. Went to grad school at night, and worked odd jobs.
Worked hard to pay ahead to remove PMI. Refinanced to a variable, paid ahead more. Never took a home equity loan or refied out equity.

I really don't want to hear about people burying themselves in debt without a plan.
I knew my income was going up. I knew my wife's was going up. We were fiscally conservative. 34 years in the house in April.

Edit:. And i paid off my student loans in10 years
 
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Johnny Utah said:
We are now fighting a Proxy war with Russia, have completely pulled out of Afghanistan and partially supplied their regimes with weapons/turned our back on our ally, are in a proxy war with Iran and have increased tensions with China. All post Trump.
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You can draw direct line to the cause of both events to Policies, Actions and Treaties of Trump's Presidency
 
Forget real estate. My wife just mentioned she stopped at Chipotle for lunch in the city the other day. Burrito bowl and iced tea was $19 and change. Neither of us have eaten there in several years. WTF?
 
Patrick said:
$300k in 1990
I was making half of what college starting salaries are now.
I didn't buy my first new car until I was 35
Learned how to butcher whole chickens into 3 meals. Grew food. Went to grad school at night, and worked odd jobs.
Worked hard to pay ahead to remove PMI. Refinanced to a variable, paid ahead more. Never took a home equity loan or refied out equity.

I really don't want to hear about people burying themselves in debt without a plan.
I knew my income was going up. I knew my wife's was going up. We were fiscally conservative. 34 years in the house in April.

Edit:. And i paid off my student loans in10 years
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How would that scenario work today? Please factor in college tuition costs, mortgage rates, home owner’s costs and taxes. “Normal” luxuries u didn’t have in 1990 like cell phone, cable, and the other 50 monthly payments.. this may not be conservative but it is a recipe for disaster.
 
Dave Taylor said:
How would that scenario work today? Please factor in college tuition costs, mortgage rates, home owner’s costs and taxes. “Normal” luxuries u didn’t have in 1990 like cell phone, cable, and the other 50 monthly payments.. this may not be conservative but it is a recipe for disaster.
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All excuses.

Figure it out. If you can't afford it, You can't have it. Did I mention I have a kid in private college outside Boston. Had 18 Years to plan for that.

We don't smoke 8 cartons of cigs a week. Go to the horse or dog track. Basic cars aren't more expensive relatively. I think the star ledger cost more per month than Disney+. We had a cable bill, and a home phone bill. The phone bill included expanded local so we could call grandma.
I only called home 1x a week for 5 minutes when at college cause it was charged per minute.
We had a $300 deductible each for medical insurance. Think about that when dad is making $6k per year. Kids need stitches.
Stop going out to eat or ordering food 5x a week. We went out for birthdays when I was a kid. We have a fancy meal at the house now. That fits our budget.

Mortgage rates? Try a lower cost home. Try a larger down payment.

Start with the amount of money available and figure out what that budget can afford, not how to finance all the luxury things.

I know things can also go south quickly. Illness, divorce, sudden job loss. Not talking about that.

Climbing out of a self-inflicted crater is not responsible decision making.
 
Patrick said:
All excuses.

Figure it out. If you can't afford it, You can't have it. Did I mention I have a kid in private college outside Boston. Had 18 Years to plan for that.

We don't smoke 8 cartons of cigs a week. Go to the horse or dog track. Basic cars aren't more expensive relatively. I think the star ledger cost more per month than Disney+. We had a cable bill, and a home phone bill. The phone bill included expanded local so we could call grandma.
I only called home 1x a week for 5 minutes when at college cause it was charged per minute.
We had a $300 deductible each for medical insurance. Think about that when dad is making $6k per year. Kids need stitches.
Stop going out to eat or ordering food 5x a week. We went out for birthdays when I was a kid. We have a fancy meal at the house now. That fits our budget.

Mortgage rates? Try a lower cost home. Try a larger down payment.

Start with the amount of money available and figure out what that budget can afford, not how to finance all the luxury things.

I know things can also go south quickly. Illness, divorce, sudden job loss. Not talking about that.

Climbing out of a self-inflicted crater is not responsible decision making.
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So can you draw this “ budget “ a young middleclass family can use to buy a home in central nj now with the same scenario? Please price in overpriced new/used cars, fuel etc.$300k home in 1990 is like $700k+ now. That’s not a cheap starter home. How does average joe save for down payment when rent is more than mortgage. Serious quesions. This is not my scenario but when a $350k house increases to $425k in a year I know as well as hell that my wage didn’t jump that much. BTW, I do not buy new vehicles or have payments. The simple statement I am making here is the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer. 1%ers owning more and more …99%ers owning beans…
 
Dave Taylor said:
So can you draw this “ budget “ a young middleclass family can use to buy a home in central nj now with the same scenario? Please price in overpriced new/used cars, fuel etc.$300k home in 1990 is like $700k+ now. That’s not a cheap starter home. How does average joe save for down payment when rent is more than mortgage. Serious quesions. This is not my scenario but when a $350k house increases to $425k in a year I know as well as hell that my wage didn’t jump that much. BTW, I do not buy new vehicles or have payments. The simple statement I am making here is the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer. 1%ers owning more and more …99%ers owning beans…
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Live with parents for 3 years to save up.
Live in a less expensive home. Cut your own lawn. Play the Muni rather than a private course. Plug the money leaks. Starbucks is out.

I disagree. The wealth and wage increase of the older middle class is causing the spikes.
Eating each other. The poor are not getting poorer, more people are becoming wealthy because of the need for skilled employees, both vocational and professional.

I'm tuned into this. My niece graduated bio-med eng, with 100k in loans. Has a great paying job. Two years in, rents a bedroom of 6 bedroom apt on a train line north of Boston. Drives a 10yo car. Has a plan. Is executing the plan.
 
John the Plumber said:
We do need a immigration policy..... Do you want to send millions of people back to Central and South America? They are doing jobs that Americans don't want to do,
like most of the work in restaurant and most of the residential construction work including roofing, siding, tile, block work, sheetrock,framing and hardwood flooring.
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I do agree with you on the fact that we need people for these jobs - we used to use H2B for that - now we just open the border? I used to run ten commercial landscape crews in the city for property management and that was the way it worked twenty years ago, H2B that is. Those workers, while not citizens were incentivized to pay taxes and would work towards their citizenship. I guess we have Fawked those people now.

We also have a legal way of bringing people in. We are bypassing people on a waiting list for people that jump the boarder. If I tried that at a local restaurant where I need a reservation I am pretty sure that won’t work. Definitely does not work at the DMV either.

The current border policy is not complying with our laws. Why do I need to pay $200 for a passport when we are allowing people to just walk in? Further - if there are so many jobs available for these people why are the cities screaming they cannot handle them? We need to house these people - our tax dollars are covering their hotels rooms in addition to many others things - further they are occupying low income housing which further drives the housing crisis.

I have yet to meet anyone that favors these policies that has taken immigrants in. Have you? Have your hired any of these people - if you have not - then why? I get the morality thing to help these people out - but I have yet to meet someone that has opened their own doors up. Someone else will take care of it - right?

I pay taxes, these people don’t. Anyway I don’t have to pay taxes anymore because I am pretty sure my tax dollars are covering this nonsense.

Does this mean TSA is going away?

I do agree it is very difficult to send them back, once they are here - they are here. Why not do this legally under the system the way it is setup?

Further - for the jobs you speak of. Local towns know the illegals do not have insurance, pay permits etc. so rather site them they let infractions go as they would be following a ghost once they hit the court system - yet the tax payer that operates in these industries pays the price. Higher insurance, higher license fees and additional scrutiny. We are a country/society of tax payers/citizens but this punishes our own.
 
Patrick said:
Live with parents for 3 years to save up.
Live in a less expensive home. Cut your own lawn. Play the Muni rather than a private course. Plug the money leaks. Starbucks is out.

I disagree. The wealth and wage increase of the older middle class is causing the spikes.
Eating each other. The poor are not getting poorer, more people are becoming wealthy because of the need for skilled employees, both vocational and professional.

I'm tuned into this. My niece graduated bio-med eng, with 100k in loans. Has a great paying job. Two years in, rents a bedroom of 6 bedroom apt on a train line north of Boston. Drives a 10yo car. Has a plan. Is executing the plan.
Click to expand...
I think the argument here is the job your niece is going after - especially after the schooling, would not require such behavior. She paid into the system for the schooling and at some point should gain the reward for the years of schooling and investment in herself. Yes, she needs to play the game and gain experience- so maybe it takes five or so years to benefit, But lately they system as it was ten years ago does not work like it did.

There are plenty of people who did not follow the algorithm your niece did, but play the system and drive $100k cars (x2) live in a $900k home and report $40k in income. The FED has provided programs to help people that are struggling, but they have become too lenient. Too many people are taking advantage like the aforementioned.

We are starting to hire people without a college education and mold them rather than pay for someone who is college educated with zero experience that thinks they have all the answers and cannot put a lid on a coffee cup without issue. I concur that the trades are starting to look way better.
 
Patrick said:
Live with parents for 3 years to save up.
Live in a less expensive home. Cut your own lawn. Play the Muni rather than a private course. Plug the money leaks. Starbucks is out.

I disagree. The wealth and wage increase of the older middle class is causing the spikes.
Eating each other. The poor are not getting poorer, more people are becoming wealthy because of the need for skilled employees, both vocational and professional.

I'm tuned into this. My niece graduated bio-med eng, with 100k in loans. Has a great paying job. Two years in, rents a bedroom of 6 bedroom apt on a train line north of Boston. Drives a 10yo car. Has a plan. Is executing the plan.
Click to expand...

I will say, personal finance is something that's never really taught in schools which is criminal. There should be some basis of being able to budget and do your taxes leaving high school.

And most importantly figure out if your college major is going to be economically viable or if something like the trades would make more sense.
 
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