Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
Possible but prob not gonna happen. Will keep running higher until they cut rates. Then we’ll get a correction of some sort because powell fucked something up at that point.
Biggest crash in stock market history?
- Thread starter Dave Taylor
- Start date
Johnny Utah
Well-Known Member
The FED knows they injected way too much money into the system with PPP and EIDL. Fraud was/is rampant. We are starting to see they are addressing the fraud.
I see people on the television toting the fact that were so many new businesses being created over the last three years. Yes, they were created. But I can tell you as a Banker they are now failing. A lot of these were propped up with fraudulent PPP and EIDL Loans. Many were people flocking from corp. life into something else - a good amount of those want to go back to corp. life and a paycheck every two weeks.
I see the SBA calling EIDL loans now on a regular basis - on demand.
Most Banks have backed out of investment real estate.
It is ugly out there right now.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
People don't understand because it has been so long but the economy does go very sour at some point. I mean look how much Tesla and Intel got walloped on earnings. People get laid off from this. The stock market is not the economy either. It's comical when people say things are coming down in price. Has McDonald's, Shop rite or your favorite restaurant come down in price? Hell no. I don't think it will happen until a changing of the guard(new president) because the democrats would rather leave a propped up and fake economy too. collapse for the next regime than leave office with an economy and markets in the gutter. That's why they are doing stimmie checks again. Seriously, if the guys in here that say things are cheap and everything is believe this then why would we need stimmie checks? Either to prop up an already boosted(from previous money printing) economy by printing more money OR it's really not that great and people need the money.
But for real. The currently elected party needs to find some better selling points other than what the right is doing / has done wrong. Otherwise, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I’m pretty sure it’s going to happen anyway regardless.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
We all act like politics matter and it’s not the biggest scam known to man. Changing of regimes just allows big players to make more money by buying in early to companies. Big corporate ultimately selects your next president. The bigger wallet wins. If it mattered I want the president that would honestly reduce the country’s debt but will never happen.
Are a significant number of people really saying this? The prices for some things have come down, but most people are saying that inflation is coming down, which is accurate and obviously not the same thing.
The price of building materials has come down significantly from pandemic highs.
Regular gas is down 10% from a year ago
Insurance is up
Food is up
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate Coming down compared to the peak but far from pre covid levels. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales This is a scary chart considering how much home sales have dropped but prices have not.
Prices lag the demand curve. On the flip side, this is why there are bidding wars when demand goes up.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
Exactly. It’s a matter of time when prices go down and fools that bought an $800k house at 8% for a $7k mortgage say “wow, that was dumb”. Now these same people will get laid off, foreclosed on etc. maybe bot now, or next year but it will happen.
If only those numbers were real, you might be right.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
Are they not? A friend I am close with bought a house in freehold for $760k and mortgage is just over $6k
John the Plumber
Well-Known Member
John the Plumber
Well-Known Member
Another banking crisis... It is crazy how they figure out what somebody can afford.
My first home in 1981 the monthly mortgage couldn't be more than 1 week net pay.
Johnny Utah
Well-Known Member
insurrections are so four years ago. There are at least two peaceful protests a quarter now where the Capital/White House are violated.
Not saying Trump is the best, but Biden is ready for a rocking chair at an old folks home. Most people can comprehend Ozzy Osbourne better. Biden has not exactly been a beacon of hope for the world.
We are now fighting a Proxy war with Russia, have completely pulled out of Afghanistan and partially supplied their regimes with weapons/turned our back on our ally, are in a proxy war with Iran and have increased tensions with China. All post Trump.
I think the never-Trumps forgot that beyond making sure Trump does not get back into office, they still need to find someone to run the country.
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Johnny Utah
Well-Known Member
As long as the migrants keep pouring in and taking the lower income housing, prices will stay inflated. IMHO the government needs a housing shortage to keep the housing prices up until after the election. Wages have not increased vs. inflation since COVID, housing prices/equity are keeping this propped up. Deposit accounts are way down and credit card balances are up - people are/have spent through what they saved and what the government gave them during COVID.
I wouldn’t call it a banking crisis, it is a FED crisis. They keep adjusting requirements on the Banks so people can afford their dream home. Twenty years from now I bet the FED requires banks to have forty or fifty year amortized mortgages - if you think I am crazy there are now ten year products for auto loans. Barney Frank partially created the previous crisis by requiring Banks to offer products that placed people into homes they clearly could not afford. The Banks pushed back and were called evil for doing so, then when the mortgages failed and the Government called the Banks evil for putting people into the mortgages. Under CRA if the Banks did not comply they needed to write a check to underserved communities, well banks are not a charity and their shareholders/depositors demand a return so they moved to the mortgages. Also, if the banks want to borrow from the FED they need to play nice with the FED.
Banks are pulling back on lending, the industry has decided Investment Real estate is going to crash in the near future. Banking staff is moving from a heavy hand in lending staff to a heavy hand in compliance. The SBA is auditing EIDL loans and demanding repaying on a growing scale - my guess is they look at PPP in the coming years. The employee tax credit program was shut down due to growing fraud.
Economically we are in a very fragile state right now, the good news for the US is we weathered COVID better than most other countries, but it is beginning to catch up.
At the end of the day - ride more bikes and demand David Taylor move back to NJ.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
Oh, and how many Ukranian billionaires did Biden make?