This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Norm

Mayor McCheese
Team MTBNJ Halter's
It is my understanding that masks do not filter everything but it filters some. This leads to a lower viral load.

Lower viral load has been shown to lead to fewer deaths. Again, my understanding.

Masks also seem to have lowered the incidence of the flu & colds according to some doctors.

Fewer colds & flu lead to a healthier population which helps that population combat the lower viral load.

While I’m not falling on my sword about any of this I do believe everything here follows logically. I don’t think masks are a bad thing here. Think of a cloth umbrella. In a light rain it’ll do. In a downpour you’re doomed.
 

rick81721

Lothar
If I try to put a wrapper on my opinion it is that it is too early to abandon the portfolio of measures we have to drive the numbers down to their future "level" as mentioned above.

1. Go to worldometer
2. Look at US daily cases graph
3. Look at any US state daily case graph
4. Observe huge second wave which peaked in mid Jan 2021
5. That's what your "portfolio of measures" does to drive numbers down

Any questions?
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
1. Go to worldometer
2. Look at US daily cases graph
3. Look at any US state daily case graph
4. Observe huge second wave which peaked in mid Jan 2021
5. That's what your "portfolio of measures" does to drive numbers down

Any questions?

Yes, Dr. Robinson. How's your math?
 

ilnadi

Well-Known Member
Masks also seem to have lowered the incidence of the flu & colds according to some doctors.
Fewer colds & flu lead to a healthier population which helps that population combat the lower viral load.
two anecdotal stories: An ENT friend 80% or whose business is kids with ear/throat infections says he has seen maybe 2-3 kids all winter. Another friend in the medicine distribution says they are overstocked on kids' medications (antibiotics, painkillers) as nobody is buying them.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
1. Go to worldometer
2. Look at US daily cases graph
3. Look at any US state daily case graph
4. Observe huge second wave which peaked in mid Jan 2021
5. That's what your "portfolio of measures" does to drive numbers down

Any questions?

it was modeled before it happened.
the policies kept if from being worse.
 

mfennell

Well-Known Member
1. Go to worldometer
2. Look at US daily cases graph
3. Look at any US state daily case graph
4. Observe huge second wave which peaked in mid Jan 2021
5. That's what your "portfolio of measures that people don't follow" does to drive numbers down

Any questions?

FTFY. The constant throughout this is how contagious it is. Masks/distancing reduces outside the home transmission just fine but when 'everyone' gets together indoors for the holidays...
 

Monkey Soup

Angry Wanker
So not zero?

And the math is exponential.

I still go with the elbow if I cough even with the mask. Let's just limit to breathing while infected using the primary contra measure

I'm only claiming it is one factor that contributes. So you are putting hand sanitizing back on the table ? I'm a bit lazy there, but aware and minimized touching stuff. Behavior change to using phone to pay for stuff rather than pulling out cc
And shopping using app.

If I try to put a wrapper on my opinion it is that it is too early to abandon the portfolio of measures we have to drive the numbers down to their future "level" as mentioned above.

I chose two weeks to see if Florida turns because the decisions now are two week's out numbers. We will see
When did hand sanitizing come off the table? Because Fauci and the CDC waffled on it? It is beyond ignorant, irresponsible really, to claim that it can't be spread via touch. I can tell you for a fact that these respiratory viruses survive on hard surfaces for way longer than you would think. And you can twist the numbers and math to fit any theory you want.

It is my understanding that masks do not filter everything but it filters some. This leads to a lower viral load.

Lower viral load has been shown to lead to fewer deaths. Again, my understanding.

Masks also seem to have lowered the incidence of the flu & colds according to some doctors.

Fewer colds & flu lead to a healthier population which helps that population combat the lower viral load.

While I’m not falling on my sword about any of this I do believe everything here follows logically. I don’t think masks are a bad thing here. Think of a cloth umbrella. In a light rain it’ll do. In a downpour you’re doomed.

Do masks filter some? Yes, some, however masks are just one aspect of many when it comes to disease spread. If anything, the use of masks led to hypervigilance and increased social distancing early on, and that had a bigger effect. If you put a bunch of sick and healthy people together in a small room all wearing masks, most will come out sick, because its more than mask wearing that's involved. Epidemiology is complicated, the spread of disease via vectors and fomites is just one aspect of it. Something like wearing masks is how you get a science-naive population in the 400M-1B range to change behavior (overall hygiene, distancing, etc.) en-mass. There comes a point though when everyone is mentally and emotionally exhausted, and it all starts to break down. We're coming to the point where people are starting to behave like they were before all of this, just while wearing a cloth covering over their faces because it gives them this false sense of security, which at this point is pretty useless. Hopefully between the people who were sick and vaccinated, we get to a point where there is sufficient herd, I mean turd, immunity to keep this down.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
The folly of raw daily case stats - have to account for population.

and policy
and demographics
and population density
and reporting bias (fluctuations in reporting by DOW)
and testing bias (facilities test/processing rates vary by DOW)

so I do agree that I'm inferring way too much for the numbers for my own entertainment. :D

wish we had a bit more raw data to mess with, then i could really twist it to support my position!
 

rick81721

Lothar
and policy
and demographics
and population density
and reporting bias (fluctuations in reporting by DOW)
and testing bias (facilities test/processing rates vary by DOW)

No the simplest comparison is by population. The first 3 factors in your list can explain differences observed between states. The last two are imaginary!
 

serviceguy

Well-Known Member
I'm a firm believer that the moment this thread is going to be shut down for good the Covid-19 pandemic will be instantly gone.

Lock her up @Patrick and save the world in the process.
 
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