Real world reaction if/when markets crash? Will this time be different?

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
that isn't what happens - Blue Horseshoe loves ARKK at $52 in May 2020 - it hits $152 8 months later and starts to slide.
at some point must have moved the stop? otherwise it is going down to $48 (8%stop) a year later and your portfolio takes a bigger beating from a perceptional POV.
Maybe the % can be adjusted so it doesn't trigger on a bad day? Only a bad trend.
a 15% trail would have triggered around $135. or buy puts to hedge?

it was a single sector EFT and that sector took a beating.
i'm just not a fan of trying for big wins, and small losses.

Playing the s&p, just keep putting it in and continue to dollar cost average. autopilot.
That is what happens. Do you think institutions stop buying overpriced crap because it's overpriced? The S&P is overpriced crap at the moment.
 

JPark

Well-Known Member
I'm pretty sure all my nephew and nieces live in CC debt. They are always traveling, ubers left and right. And they travel in style, I can't figure it out. they are all in their late 20's and early 30's. I have one niece who spends $15 every day on the way into to work at starbucks? Vegas, St Barts, Cancun, for bachelor or bachelorette party. Crazy stuff.

I wouldn't be able to sleep if i couldn't pay off my CC.
are they expecting to inherit a lot of money from their parents?
 

roc

Well-Known Member
are they expecting to inherit a lot of money from their parents?
Actually, one set of nieces probably will, but hopefully not anytime soon. At least thats what their dad is hoping😀And the others, no, not much anyway.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
That is what happens. Do you think institutions stop buying overpriced crap because it's overpriced? The S&P is overpriced crap at the moment.

Institutional investors - like life insurance companies buy bluechip stocks every time their model says buy.
I'm sure they have venture arms too - boom or zero.
Your point that they are not cost averaging above their target price would seem accurate.
they'd also not pay someone to manage their money (ie a mutual fund manager)
do they hedge?

I can also lend life insurance companies money at 7% for 5 years (i think it was 5) - they have a minimum and maximum and can cash out whenever they want before the maturation date.
the loan can not be called without penalty.
Damn, that looks good now!
 

Blair

Well-Known Member
Ahh, silly you, you forgot the loopholes...the problem with your theory here is that the wealthier you are the better you are at hiding deferring income. You are a fool if you really think the wealthy pay a higher relative tax rate. This is where life insurance policies and all the other BS loopholes come into play.
FTFY. If you’re smart enough to make the money you have to be smart enough to keep it.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
So will all the FOMO traders turn this cyclical bear into a secular bear? Hate to sy it, market is gonna get hit hard. For the record i hope I am very wrong.
 
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Johnny Utah

Well-Known Member
So will all the FOMO traders turn this cyclical bear into a secular bear? Hate to sy it, market is gonna get hit hard.
Stock markets for saps, I bought this video/book set at a garage sale three months ago for seventy five cents cash (small discount for the stains but there was a Steller poloroid in book 2 page 41 that made it worth it😍) After reading through and following the procedures 95% of the way I am rolling in the cash. Listen to Don.

 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Yeah it's going to yoyo for awhile. Once repubs take over congress and stop the reckless spending, and we get thru this mini-recession, it'll go up again.

Once the war in eastern Europe resolves, and trade is reestablished, uncertainty goes down and the market will recover.
 

rick81721

Lothar
right in the middle of the article

Exports of grain and soybeans are also important right now, because we’re facing a shortage of those commodities amid the war in Ukraine.

Yes - exports. Bottom line, Dow did not drop much when Russia invaded Ukraine. Gradual decline due to multiple factors. Then it recovered mid-August almost to within 2000 pts of the all-time high, while the war continued. Inflation and recession led to the drop to where we are now.
 
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