Real world reaction if/when markets crash? Will this time be different?

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Yes - exports. Bottom line, Dow did not drop much when Russia invaded Ukraine. Gradual decline due to multiple factors. Then it recovered mid-August almost to within 2000 pts of the all-time high, while the war continued. Inflation and recession led to the drop to where we are now.
It’s much more simple than that. The fed is draining liquidity not adding it. Oct cpi was high, nov predicted to be higher. They will stop raising rates after the next time to see if inflation stabbilizes. TSLA and AAPL are the market leaders and they are tumbling. The dow is only held up because of the banks. Futures trading keeps the inevitable vix spike in check hence the relentless selling since may of 2021. Capitulation will happen and the soon to retire folks will be the most screwed.Take England for example.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
It’s much more simple than that. The fed is draining liquidity not adding it. Oct cpi was high, nov predicted to be higher. They will stop raising rates after the next time to see if inflation stabbilizes. TSLA and AAPL are the market leaders and they are tumbling. The dow is only held up because of the banks. Futures trading keeps the inevitable vix spike in check hence the relentless selling since may of 2021. Capitulation will happen and the soon to retire folks will be the most screwed.Take England for example.
What leads you to say this?
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
What leads you to say this?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/13/business/inflation-cpi-report The fed is tightening not easing. Look at the S&P performance relative to AAPL/TSLA. AAPL/TSLA held their ground while the S&P has been tumbling away...until AAPL/TSLA let go and flushed big last week finally leading the S&P lower(before the S&P led lower). The S&P rebounded but TSLA/AAPL did not follow through with the same force. Are you suggesting that the "trend" is still up? I think it's quite obvious we are in a bear market, trending down still with no real bottom in sight yet. Sure, some is my opinion but that's all the market is is opinions/emotions.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/13/business/inflation-cpi-report The fed is tightening not easing. Look at the S&P performance relative to AAPL/TSLA. AAPL/TSLA held their ground while the S&P has been tumbling away...until AAPL/TSLA let go and flushed big last week finally leading the S&P lower(before the S&P led lower). The S&P rebounded but TSLA/AAPL did not follow through with the same force. Are you suggesting that the "trend" is still up? I think it's quite obvious we are in a bear market, trending down still with no real bottom in sight yet. Sure, some is my opinion but that's all the market is is opinions/emotions.
Yeah, but what makes you say they will really ease after the next increase? I'm going to bet they keep going and overshoot.

They've made it clear that inflation=bad and overshooting is better than high inflation.

They have a lot of ground to cover considering the monetary supply increased by 1/5-1/4 in the past two years.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Yeah, but what makes you say they will really ease after the next increase? I'm going to bet they keep going and overshoot.

They've made it clear that inflation=bad and overshooting is better than high inflation.

They have a lot of ground to cover considering the monetary supply increased by 1/5-1/4 in the past two years.
They said they will stop at 4.5% and analyze. That would be .75bp this time and .5 next time.
 
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