This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[Norm]

but it doesn't seem sustainable

It's not. But the theory is that if you know 100 people are going to get it, you try to have 1 person get it per day across 100 days, as opposed to all 100 at once.

I too wonder what's going to happen on the other side of the curve. All it takes is one to start it all over again. In a sense you almost have to expose people in waves. But if the mortality rate is not 0%, nobody will ever accept that.

We are likely going to be in some state of shutdown/lockdown through the end of school IMO. It may be on-again-off-again but if we just unfurl the banners I think it'll just ramp back up.

South Korea is not on lockdown. They're just being proactive. Check this article it's pretty good:

How Italy, South Korea differ in tackling coronavirus outbreak

Seoul and Rome took different approaches to combating the spread with significant contrast in outcomes.

www.aljazeera.com

They chose not to bury their heads in the sand and they tried to get ahead of the curve. And they use data to try to address the issue. I know people here will freak out at privacy concerns but it comes down to the question of what people really want most. Privacy or health?

 

[JimN]

It's not. But the theory is that if you know 100 people are going to get it, you try to have 1 person get it per day across 100 days, as opposed to all 100 at once.

Yeah, I realize the goal is to spread it out and not overwhelm the hospital system.

I too wonder what's going to happen on the other side of the curve. All it takes is one to start it all over again.

Exactly. We're just delaying the inevitable it seems like.

Check this article it's pretty good

That article is very interesting, but as you noted, there's no way that would fly here.

South Korea is not on lockdown.

I would argue that they are, but it's a different kind of lockdown.

"People found positive are placed in self-quarantine and monitored remotely through an app"

 

[roc]

It's not. But the theory is that if you know 100 people are going to get it, you try to have 1 person get it per day across 100 days, as opposed to all 100 at once.

I too wonder what's going to happen on the other side of the curve. All it takes is one to start it all over again. In a sense you almost have to expose people in waves. But if the mortality rate is not 0%, nobody will ever accept that.

We are likely going to be in some state of shutdown/lockdown through the end of school IMO. It may be on-again-off-again but if we just unfurl the banners I think it'll just ramp back up.

South Korea is not on lockdown. They're just being proactive. Check this article it's pretty good:

How Italy, South Korea differ in tackling coronavirus outbreak

Seoul and Rome took different approaches to combating the spread with significant contrast in outcomes.

www.aljazeera.com

They chose not to bury their heads in the sand and they tried to get ahead of the curve. And they use data to try to address the issue. I know people here will freak out at privacy concerns but it comes down to the question of what people really want most. Privacy or health?

I will take health! Just as long as they don't look at my browser history!

 

[Paul H]

Want to do urban mtbing?

As quiet as it is... you will still get hit by a bus

 

[Bike N Gear]

This guy should be banned from every airline.

 

[Steve Vai]

The shop is busy like it's a weekend in the middle of Summer. Literally no one cares. Dennis is working on a wheelchair for an elderly man with an Oxygen tank on his back. I coughed on him just to finish him off, he's obviously suicidal.

 

[oobaa47]

Sorry if this was mentioned already, but if not, go check out Joe rogan's podcast with infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm. It is a real eye opener. He also discusses Lyme disease and CWD, which is pretty scary in and of itself......

 

[Mountain Bike Mike]

When we go to a full lockdown, all the toilet paper preppers will be laughing all the way to the shitter...

 

[mattybfat]

Self Quarantining and Working in beautiful Hope, NJ!
Been SQing since 2014

 

[Mountain Bike Mike]

Self Quarantining and Working in beautiful Hope, NJ!
Been SQing since 2014
View attachment 121571

we can see @mattybfat living up to his name and prepared for 30 days worth....

i burned it all off trying to win biyf bonus challenges

 

[A Potted Plant]

This guy should be banned from every airline.

Italy is charging people we should do the same

 

[Dominique]

Yeah, but aren't they still on lockdown? What happens when the lockdown ends and the virus still exists in the world? The problem with these quarantines and lockdowns is that they can't go on forever (well maybe they can in China). I'm not saying they aren't a good idea right now because we don't know what else to do, but it doesn't seem sustainable. This virus isn't just gonna disappear, and people are gonna have to go back to daily life at some point.

My coworker is from China. She says factories have started to re-open and kids are going back to school next week.

 

[JimN]

My coworker is from China. She says factories have started to re-open and kids are going back to school next week.

Cool, it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Dominique]

This guy should be banned from every airline.

OMG that's just crazy. Why he would fly is beyond belief.

 

[Patrick]

yeah but it all depends how long we stay in the highly accelerated new cases part of the graph. In the same site, look at the graphs for china and s. korea. They started to flatten out after 2-3 weeks

yes, 2 weeks to reduce acceleration, and perhaps even go negative because of action. assume we started yesterday? Day before? was it enough?

the acceleration looks stable (geometric?) across the graph to me. nice and smooth, with some reports delayed to the next day, i wouldn't expect it to change without action (or the number of people available to get sick because they are/were/isolate becomes the limiting factor)

 

[one piece crank]

We have a supplier in Italy, and despite what you hear, they are still running and manufacturing, and to this point shipping). So, I would think a complete supply shutdown (TP kinda stuff) in the US is unlikely.

 

[ilnadi]

first, I am too lazy to tag everything so assume I "liked" all the posts I liked and made snarky comments to those I did not.

I am stocking up on drano and plungers. I have two teenagers who are going to get stuck at home with a huge supply of food and TP.

Running out and buying/hording consumables just makes it difficult for all of us and spreads panic.

Especially when you're at higher risk because you bought all the hand sanitizers so your neighbors ain't got none.

What happens Monday when half the assholes out there run out of milk? Is there gonna be cow thievery going on or are people going to go to Acme and realize the shelves are full again?

They're going to realize the person stocking the shelves could not buy hand sanitizer

Debating trying to do this...

Funny, every toilet in Turkey has a little water spout for washing your ass. They think we're uncivilized and disgusting for wiping our asses without washing them first. Remember, one man's steak is another's deity, it's all relative.

It's not. But the theory is that if you know 100 people are going to get it, you try to have 1 person get it per day across 100 days, as opposed to all 100 at once.

This^^
It's called mitigation and what you do when you have a pandemic (i.e. it's already everywhere, you cannot keep it from coming in)

 

[Captain Brainstorm]

COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US - Global Research

It would be useful to read this prior article for background: China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US? By Larry Romanoff, March 04, 2020 *** As readers will recall from the earlier article (above), Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharmacologists have...

www.globalresearch.ca

Don't believe that. Horseshit article from a horseshit website. The presumptive intermediate animal is believed to be a Pangolin, DNA from the coronavirus it carries is a 99% match to COVID-19.

Panic is one reaction to information. So is being dismissive. While I certainly don’t think anyone should panic (ever) we need to listen to what the experts are saying and prepare now.

Consider the source of the information that you're getting, and also look at the facts. The epicenter of this is also where the most severe outcomes were. Hundreds of thousands aren't dead in China, and it won't happen here either.

 

[Magic]

We have a supplier in Italy, and despite what you hear, they are still running and manufacturing, and to this point shipping). So, I would think a complete supply shutdown (TP kinda stuff) in the US is unlikely.

It's probably similar with all companies. They can't stop production or they lose money, so they are just sending the non-essential employees that are able to work from home away to limit getting the production people sick. That being said, many companies are likely already losing money even without closing production. That's between both travel restrictions for salespeople, and people not necessarily looking to get dental implants or whatever else done during a virus outbreak.

All schools in Bergen closing. This means there will now be hoards of teenagers all over my city spreading corona at he local Starbucks. Shut it all down!

 

[The Kalmyk]

All schools in the state of NJ are shutting it down