mfennell
Well-Known Member
I doubt it has anything in it they hadn't already been told but it gave a reason to change course. Whatever, I was relieved it finally happened.
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
Sorry, looks like I only have 1-12.
thegock
Well-Known Member
I was quoting Dr. Joe who used the word "impossible" in reviewing your Diamond Princess analysis. This is a quote from your post above.
"Given that rate of ~1%, this means that 11901 people have the virus in the US as of EOD yesterday. Which means there are exactly 4265 unreported cases as of the end of yesterday."
11,901-4265=7636
@rlb can check my math here.
Nothing that I have read agrees with the Diamond Princess analysis that you posit.
I am not saying to "panic more," but rather that EVERYONE needs to modify their behavior NOW to mitigate the impact of C19. Social distancing is critical.
A dear friend of mine works at a major medical facility, which you would all recognize the name of. 28 coworkers tested positive and 11 are hospitalized. Think carefully about those numbers and how exponential growth without behavioral changes to increase social distancing would impact each. Or was calculus hard?
Can confirm this is mostly my isle and I've had no issue getting what I normally buy
I think then that you don't understand the point that I'm making. You're talking about the spread of it and I'm talking about mortality rates. 2 separate things. But again, again again, if Dr Joe or anyone is right about it being 8x more prevalent, then the mortality rate is far lower than reported. And again again again, that is not a bad thing.
We have not been in any public spaces (parks being the exception) as a family since last week. I've gone to Acme twice at 7am and generally treat everyone as well as myself as if I have it. Because I do believe that we need to just hold serve and stay out of the crossfire as much as we can.
Meanwhile the shop of the team you ride for is pretty much the local Coronavirus Vector Stop. Maybe you should spend some more time convincing them?
thegock
Well-Known Member
Then I was wrong and I misunderstood your post. Thanks for being patient with a simple debit and credit man and explaining to me.
I don't ride for the team. @xc62701 threw me off when I only podiumed twice in the previous year. I also don't want to tell people who are in business (like myself) how to conduct that business during existential times. That being said, you are right that it is a Coronavirus Vector Stop situation.
serviceguy
Well-Known Member
Is Trump Derangement Syndrome one of the conditions that make you more vulnerable to the Coronavirus (how isn't that name offensive to Mexican beer anyway) ? Asking for a friend.
Tim
aka sptimmy43
I have a serious question. Wouldn't it make more sense to isolate and support those who have compromised immune systems and the elderly rather than everyone else? What are the long term societal and health and wellness implications for everyone when there is a major economic collapse?
And no, I am not a conspiracy theorist. The virus is real and I believe our motivations behind the measures currently being taken are genuine. I just wonder if we are focusing on the wrong things and the impact that is going to have long after COVID-19 has run it's course.
And no, I am not a conspiracy theorist. The virus is real and I believe our motivations behind the measures currently being taken are genuine. I just wonder if we are focusing on the wrong things and the impact that is going to have long after COVID-19 has run it's course.
i'm back, after my 1 day quarantine. Probably my only post for the day, to limit exposure.
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Sure, they needed a made-for-tv drama script two months later because the public couldn't listen to the scientists,
and when polled, the public thought it was no biggie, so the elected government, to maintain approval ratings, reflected the concern level
of the people - which was dismissive. It is not the other way around.
Early numbers of exponential growth were compared to final flu numbers from a few years ago.
Why were they not compared to early numbers and the growth rate of that flu? (2+ compared to 1.3)
Why wasn't the hospitalization rate compared? (15%+ to 2%)
And why wasn't that clearly communicated?
Using the flu numbers that conspiracy theorist from @jdog's vid, he quoted
US numbers 45M/325M (13.8%)contracted the flu, 60k died: 0.15% - but only 2% required hospitalization
over a slower growth curve. This virus has more than 7x the need for hospital beds with a growth rate
of almost double (and double in terms of exponential, isn't a linear double - it is double in each "cycle")
these figures were known.
The mortality rate of the virus, is different than the overall rate, because people will
die that didn't have to, because care will not available. The mortality rate of the diamond princess is not
indicative of the final toll, because all of these people were treated.
Iran and Italy don't have a stronger strain, they just have a head start.
Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart
It’s more contagious, more deadly (particularly for older people), and it has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system.
www.vox.com
US studies offer clues to COVID-19 swift spread, severity
Edit:
the economy and small business will recover. it survived the depression. It survived the wars when no raw materials were available.
Potato famine, the dust bowl, lack of snow in the NJ.
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thegock
Well-Known Member
Trade you for my technical accounting memo on revenue recognition conference call which will only be 2 hours?
this made my week!!!!
JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
It can only help, so why not?
Paul H
Fearless OOS Poser
If what I said is valid... I have to question the recommendations that were made by government officials that only those infected should wear one.
Now if one wears it, ppl may assume that those who wears a mask is infected.
serviceguy
Well-Known Member
Also, some N95 masks have a valve that let air going outside the mask. Would those let the virus out making them completely useless?
w_b
Well-Known Member
^^^ this is a good thing at this stage. I assume I am infected, and everyone else is too. I got no prob staying away from you. So stay away from us and you'll be good. Maybe.
If more people didn't go to Target to browse cuz they're bored it would be good too.