Coronavirus

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
There is so much posted on the board that is complete bull$hi+.

In contrast, I wanted to point out that @jdog linked article nailed the math. If you don't know exponential math, like the Ph.D in microbiology that is my longest friend, you should read it. All of it. Now would be good.
thank god i didn't mention exponential growth about 3 weeks ago.
and two weeks ago, and last week. it is only a few cases in boston.

here, i gave myself a medal.
?

here is the timeline for the diamond princess.

the curve looks as expected - they had ~15 days to interact, and two weeks to incubate.
80% of passengers are 60+, no demographics on crew.

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thegock

Well-Known Member
Your Ph.D friend knows exponential math, otherwise he got his Ph.D from the back of a cereal box, since bacterial growth in a controlled medium is exponential. Mirco 101. There is way more to viral and bacterial replication, virulence, and immunology than just math. You forget that we're dealing with complex living systems here, that are not in a controlled environment, not just 1's and 0's (like our jobs treat us).
University of Michigan.

JABBA giphy (1).gif

Didn't say that he didn't. He is the second leading killer of drosophila ETD. But, I am open to new information on a topic of about which I know little.

Of course, I only listen to people who ride and then only if they are at least CAT1. Or at the very least, wannabees.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Your Ph.D friend knows exponential math, otherwise he got his Ph.D from the back of a cereal box, since bacterial growth in a controlled medium is exponential. Mirco 101. There is way more to viral and bacterial replication, virulence, and immunology than just math. You forget that we're dealing with complex living systems here, that are not in a controlled environment, not just 1's and 0's (like our jobs treat us).
at this point, everyone can get it. if we are out and about, i'd call that a viable agar.
yes, we are dealing with transmission, not self-replication, but they only differ by a factor (the math.)

sure there are boundary conditions, but they just change the rate (which also changes over time.)
which is what we are hoping to do with distancing.
 
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thegock

Well-Known Member
at this point, everyone can get it. if we are out and about, i'd call that a viable agar.
yes, we are dealing with transmission, not self-replication, but they only differ by a factor (the math.)

sure there are boundary conditions, but they just change the rate.
which is what we are hoping to do with distancing.
Even the Idiot in Chief appears to be getting it a little.

I am going for a hike on my favorite MTB trail. Alone.

YELO WBOY IMG_20191002_103140-02.jpg
 

Kaleidopete

Well-Known Member
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NEW JERSEY PARKS AND FORESTS OPEN FOR PASSIVE RECREATION WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING

During this time, state parks and forests will continue to be open to the public for hiking and other passive recreation.
Community health is crucial right now and exercising (walking, hiking, and biking) while observing social distancing practices can help ensure public health.

FACILITIES CLOSED; EVENTS CANCELED
To protect public health and safety due to the spread of COVID-19, the State Park Service has closed all park facilities (restrooms, offices,
nature centers, historic buildings), canceled all events, and canceled all upcoming camping reservations through Thursday, April 30.
CAMPING RESERVATIONS REFUNDED
Existing camping reservations from Monday, March 16, through Thursday, April 30, will be canceled. Reservations will be refunded in full at our earliest convenience. Campers currently occupying a campsite will be required to leave by the end of today, March 16. No new future camping reservations are being accepted.
Check back to this Facebook page and the Division of Parks and Forestry’s website for any new information.
Learn more about COVID-19 from the New Jersey Department of Health: https://www.nj.gov/health/
The New Jersey Division of Parks and Forestry would like to remind you practice social distancing while visiting park trails, to cover sneezes, and wash your hands often.
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
Well... is BK itself safe?
:shrug:

BTW.... Trump doesn't look well today.
He probably got a combination of drugs that have been shown effective (some anti malarial and HIV meds look like they are helping). Stuff that isn't available to the peasants yet.
 

Zaskar

Well-Known Member
Can anyone define "passive recreation"? Just recreating in groups less than 10, or 5? Or am I not allowed to attack that segment to get a KOM now because that's not passive?
passive recreation
passive recreation
noun
Outdoor recreational activities, such as nature observation, hiking, *BIKING* and canoeing or kayaking, that require a minimum of facilities or development and that have minimal environmental impact on the recreational site.
 
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Tim

aka sptimmy43
passive recreation
passive recreation
noun
Outdoor recreational activities, such as nature observation, hiking, and canoeing or kayaking, that require a minimum of facilities or development and that have minimal environmental impact on the recreational site.
I think a key component to this is you can do these activities without sharing equipment. You can ride your own bike vs something like, let's say, playing football where by the very nature of the activity there is physical contact with other people and the equipment is passed around from person to person, potentially spreading the virus.
 
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Dominique

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
passive recreation
passive recreation
noun
Outdoor recreational activities, such as nature observation, hiking, and canoeing or kayaking, that require a minimum of facilities or development and that have minimal environmental impact on the recreational site.
Don't forget biking...

Community health is crucial right now and exercising (walking, hiking, and biking) while observing social distancing practices can help ensure public health.
 

rick81721

Lothar
at this point, everyone can get it. if we are out and about, i'd call that a viable agar.
yes, we are dealing with transmission, not self-replication, but they only differ by a factor (the math.)

sure there are boundary conditions, but they just change the rate (which also changes over time.)
which is what we are hoping to do with distancing.
If everyone can get it, the infection rate on the diamond princess would have been much higher. So many variables here - no way to figure out the "factor". People are social distancing like never before - this is uncharted territory to try to predict. We are testing people with the appropriate symptoms, as of right now, over 50K have been tested - 90% test negative.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
If everyone can get it, the infection rate on the diamond princess would have been much higher. So many variables here - no way to figure out the "factor". People are social distancing like never before - this is uncharted territory to try to predict. We are testing people with the appropriate symptoms, as of right now, over 50K have been tested - 90% test negative.
given more time mixed together, "everyone" would get it. in the statistical sense - cause some would be spared, and
probably not because of immunity, just random non-contact or non-contraction (say the contraction rate was 5% of contact?)
- i'm not sure of the tech term for this, too lazy to look it up. but it is just the chance of getting it when exposed to an individual that has it.
(is that virulance?) -
 
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