This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

GSTim

Formerly M3Tim
you are quoting opinion pieces now? not like you at all.
I know this is an opinion, but it sounds right to me.

I love how CNN stated in an article a few days ago that the big drop was due to increased compliance with masks and social distancing. I don't believe for one second that masking and social distancing has increased by any significant percentage over the month.

Weren't we just speculating that we were getting close to 50% a month ago?
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Where did I quote anything? Just linked the article. And the author is an MD and Johns Hopkins health policy expert. Do you dispute the data? Then provide evidence to the contrary.
It was in the opinion section. I'm saying it is unlike you to do that.
Or did you do it because it agrees with your views?

It is cold
Post Xmas
Nobody doing anything in January result

The data agrees with my opinion. As it does yours and cnn's
 

Fat Trout

Well-Known Member
I always like talk about opinions. It reminds me of the saying.....

Opinions are like (######) ....everyone has one.

I'll let folks insert the (######) for themselves lol
 

one piece crank

Well-Known Member
We have nine people at work, essential phase 1c operation. One person has had both jabs, another had his first jab. Aside from those two documented in phase 1b, no one else has been qualified by the State or County. So we are 2 out of 9.
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
I always like talk about opinions. It reminds me of the saying.....

Opinions are like (######) ....everyone has one.

I'll let folks insert the (######) for themselves lol

I hate to defend my crazy, racist uncle, @SLIKRICK , but the article is pretty good. Here are the first few paragraphs from my WSJ subscription:

WSJ

Dr. Marty Makary

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

2/18/21

"Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild."
 

jShort

2018 Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Lead Technician
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Not in Florida, and new cases/% positivity has dropped lower than NJ's.
It’s not just the US either. Countries all over the world are reporting similar drops.
Nobody wants to the H I words though.

If everyone said herd immunity was here much less people would get the vaccine. Then we’d probably have more cases in the longer run annnnnd... the vaccine companies would be pissed.
 

rick81721

Lothar
It’s not just the US either. Countries all over the world are reporting similar drops.
Nobody wants to the H I words though.

If everyone said herd immunity was here much less people would get the vaccine. Then we’d probably have more cases in the longer run annnnnd... the vaccine companies would be pissed.

Yep!
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Not in Florida, and new cases/% positivity has dropped lower than NJ's.

that's because everyone that gets the sniffles calls out of work and goes and gets tested.
very simple - drive that denominator up. every governors goal.

but yeah, still getting vaccinated.
 

rick81721

Lothar
that's because everyone that gets the sniffles calls out of work and goes and gets tested.
very simple - drive that denominator up. every governors goal.

but yeah, still getting vaccinated.

Come on, man, you're supposed to be the math guy! Percent previously infected (and with some immunity) + percent vaccinated = running out of people to infect and transmit.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Come on, man, you're supposed to be the math guy! Percent previously infected (and with some immunity) + percent vaccinated = running out of people to infect and transmit.

but 50% of the people vaccinated already had the virus according to opinion.
and the other half were the ones being the most careful - so they don't count. ;)

i'm just busting ya - when you reference a CDC article that says H I, will let you off the hook.
 

jShort

2018 Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Lead Technician
Team MTBNJ Halter's
but 50% of the people vaccinated already had the virus according to opinion.
and the other half were the ones being the most careful - so they don't count. ;)

i'm just busting ya - when you reference a CDC article that says H I, will let you off the hook.

that’s a trap. They call it community immunity
 

rlb

Well-Known Member
that's because everyone that gets the sniffles calls out of work and goes and gets tested.
very simple - drive that denominator up. every governors goal.

but yeah, still getting vaccinated.

Aside from driving the numbers in a favorable direction this is really the responsible thing to do IMO, and what everyone would have been screaming for if we had a test on day 1. Simple and easy way to avoid spreading it.

I got 2 tests within 2 weeks just because I wasn't feeling well and I have an infant at home and a kid in daycare. Didn't want to find out I was a super spreader!
 

rick81721

Lothar
but 50% of the people vaccinated already had the virus according to opinion.
and the other half were the ones being the most careful - so they don't count. ;)

i'm just busting ya - when you reference a CDC article that says H I, will let you off the hook.

Ha first part is your assumption. Second part, with a 3+ month publication lag, it'll be over months before you'll see an article about it. I'd say we need about 50 million more people vaccinated before it crashes completely.
 

rlb

Well-Known Member
May resonate a bit....


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