This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Captain Brainstorm said:
No one has proven the existence of a “Typhoid Mary” type of scenario just going around and spreading Covid.
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Nor is anyone making such an outlandish claim. Quit moving the goalposts.

From the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2009758)

Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were similarly high in the four symptom groups (residents with typical symptoms, those with atypical symptoms, those who were presymptomatic, and those who remained asymptomatic).
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You said:
If the virus is replicating by the 10s of millions in your body, enough to spread it, you will get sick.
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Some number of people (30-40%) don't get sick yet have similar viral loads which are - in your own words - "enough to spread it".
 
mfennell said:
Nor is anyone making such an outlandish claim. Quit moving the goalposts.

From the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2009758)



You said:


Some number of people (30-40%) don't get sick yet have similar viral loads which are - in your own words - "enough to spread it".
Click to expand...


Wait, we are allowed to cite nejm.org or the cdc.gov? Is that really fair? Can't I just say what I think and insult others, by way of convincing them to come around to my way of thinking? Wouldn't the latter be easier, cuz I am like a really busy and intelligent guy, aight?

BIGC LOWN IMG_20200328_211615-01.jpg
 
mfennell said:
Nor is anyone making such an outlandish claim. Quit moving the goalposts.

From the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2009758)


You said:


Some number of people (30-40%) don't get sick yet have similar viral loads which are - in your own words - "enough to spread it".
Click to expand...

First, I didn’t insult anyone with my previous responses. Now the most interesting, and most frustrating thing, about this thread is the compulsive need to prove everyone wrong despite the fact you have no fucking idea what your talking about. Are you a microbiologist? Biochemist? Immunologist? Bueller.... If you bothered to read what you posted, the article is about asymptotic BEFORE they show symptoms. Again, not the mythical asymptomatic guy, who never develops symptoms, going around spreading covid.
 
Bring out your dead!

If this is Monday, there must be dead bodies. Just a bit more about the “excess death” hypothesis in the WSJ today:

Death Toll From Covid-19 Pandemic Extends Far Beyond Virus Victims

https://www.wsj.com/articles/death-...ms-11600507800?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

“The CDC estimates there were somewhere between about 202,000 and 263,000 excess deaths in the U.S. this year through late August, measured against deaths from 2017 through 2019. The U.S. by that point had about 188,000 known Covid-19 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins. In New York City, the citywide death count surged by 35,000 in the most recent fiscal year, far exceeding the 19,142 confirmed and 4,625 probable virus-related deaths, authorities said Thursday.

Researchers are still trying to understand these gaps between total pandemic-related deaths and those caused by coronavirus infections, including how many actual Covid 19-related deaths were undercounted. This could take years to unpack as scientists learn more about Covid-19 and wade through inconsistencies in how death certificates are filled out. Researchers also say there may also some positive lockdown-related effects that improved health, such as reduced air pollution.

Researchers from Boston University, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and University of Pennsylvania used data from about 900 counties representing most Covid-19 deaths to estimate that 20% * of excess deaths between Feb. 1 and late August were linked to something other than Covid-19. These deaths hit harder in communities with low socio-economic status and high percentages of Black residents, researchers found. Their work hasn’t been peer-reviewed or published yet.”

* I did the math for you: 80% of the excess deaths would be due to C19

The article was by Jon Kamp and its conclusions are consistent with the excess death data cited in other links above in this thread.

NITE SNEE IMG_20200919_200359.jpg

Just to be fair and balanced, doe, these are some of the older, white friends of mine, after this weekend's 34th annual golf tournament. Maybe half of them would support the theory that a lot of these dead bodies are misclassified motorcycle accidents. 🙄
 
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I have seen this movie before. I know you don't have time to find all those references that totally support your statements. I'm too dumb to understand them anyway.

Captain Brainstorm said:
First, I didn’t insult anyone with my previous responses. Now the most interesting, and most frustrating thing, about this thread is the compulsive need to prove everyone wrong despite the fact you have no fucking idea what your talking about. Are you a microbiologist? Biochemist? Immunologist? Bueller.... If you bothered to read what you posted, the article is about asymptotic BEFORE they show symptoms. Again, not the mythical asymptomatic guy, who never develops symptoms, going around spreading covid.
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The article is about both presymptomatic and truly asymptomatic. You should read more carefully.

Among 76 residents in the point-prevalence surveys, 48 (63%) had positive rRT-PCR results, with 27 (56%) essentially asymptomatic, although symptoms subsequently developed in 24 of these residents (within a median of 4 days) and they were reclassified as presymptomatic. Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were similarly high in the four symptom groups (residents with typical symptoms, those with atypical symptoms, those who were presymptomatic, and those who remained asymptomatic).
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I am completely ignorant of all things epidemiology. What is the education required to understand that 24 is less than 27?
 
so if i read that correctly, there were 3 asymptomatic individuals? seems like a pretty negligible sample size to me.
 
Paul H said:
for the general public... presymptoatic, aasymptomatic... does it matter if they are both contagious?
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the question being discussed is if the people who are asymptotic and never become symptomatic are contagious. I’ve read both sides and I still can’t tell if anyone is right or wrong. But I think it’s a great question and i as the general public would like to know.
 
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jShort said:
the question being discussed is if the people who are asymptotic and never become symptomatic are contagious. I’ve read both sides and I still can’t tell if anyone is right or wrong. But I think it’s a great question and i as the general public would like to know.
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From everything that I have read - whether you have symptoms or not you are contagious. But with symptoms you are much more contagious than without.
 
The CDC clearly differientiates pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic.
They acknowledge it is difficult to study for obvious reasons but their best guess is that they are contagious.
As I have mentioned... we really don't know much about covid yet. Seems like most are educated guesses.
 
jShort said:
Agreed. This shit has only been going on for like 9 months which is such a blip in the radar. Then add in the politicization of EVERYTHING you read....
No wonder nobody knows what the f is going on.
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You are absolutely 100% correct. Politicization and internet Drs. Have blown this thing up. Here’s some basic scientific fact that any layman can ponder:
  1. Its highly unlikely that with full-blown viral replication happening, cells being compromised and destroyed by the billions, that you don’t develop illness or symptoms. Viral pathology is much different than bacterial pathology, where with our single-celled friends you can very well be an Asymptomatic spreader. Those people are scientifically known as shedders.
  2. When you’re Asymptomatic/presymptomatic, you’re contagious, but don’t spread as much as a symptomatic person because you’re not coughing, sneezing, etc. Droplet dispersion and aerosolization are the primary routes of spread, and if you’re not hacking, the amount of virus you introduce to your immediate environment is more limited.
  3. They don’t even know the discrete mechanism behind the immune response to this yet. Most of the vaccine candidates haven’t even determined if a booster is required, and they plan on injecting you with this.
 
Looking at the UK, with their second wave -
health secretary:

He said new transmissions are largely taking place in social settings and have already led a doubling in the number of people being hospitalised with the virus every seven to eight days.

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www.worldometers.info

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

i'm thinking...

1600778719973.png

Guess later may be a better idea?
 
 
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