rick81721
Lothar
Could be. There is definitely a new strain that is more contagious circulating - they claim it is "no more lethal" than the previous one but it very possible it is less deadly. I doubt CDC would say so if they knew.
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
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Could be. There is definitely a new strain that is more contagious circulating - they claim it is "no more lethal" than the previous one but it very possible it is less deadly. I doubt CDC would say so if they knew.
serviceguy
Well-Known Member
Actually it's not that simple. Yes, the argument about civil liberties is kind of pointless if compared to life preservation, but using a mask is not necessarily that healthy. It may lower your oxygen level and breathing the toxins you just expelled doesn't help either. Not many cases but a guy in Ringwood passed out while driving wearing a mask and a few supermarket cashier apparently have passed out as well. Then there is the flip flopping from authorities about wearing the mask that obviously did not help.
About testing, has anybody heard that apparently there have been several cases of unused tampons that were mistakenly sent to be analyzed and came back positive? Apparently a group of nurses did a test with some unopened swabs and they allcame back COVID-19 positive. My mom told me that in Italy some of the first test that came from China were 'accidentally' infected with the virus, so people were tested and infected at the same time. All second/third hand data because I've decided to remove myself from the head spinning stream of data (not information, it's a different thing) a while ago.
thegock
Well-Known Member
@rick81721 Guess building a wall won't keep those god damn Ugandans out, huh? So, do you have different numbers?
The article below from Dr. Joe says:
..."it could take more than a month to go from infection to death." Therefore, I think four weeks before death is a good estimate, based on this article and everything else that I have read.
The article below from Dr. Joe says:
..."it could take more than a month to go from infection to death." Therefore, I think four weeks before death is a good estimate, based on this article and everything else that I have read.
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api-nationalgeographic-com.cdn.ampproject.org
rick81721
Lothar
Yeah but most people don't get a positive test result until 1-2 weeks after infection, which is why deaths lag by 2 weeks. From the peak in early may, there is now a 60% increase in hospitalizations resulting from a 6 times increase in new cases 2 weeks ago.
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I wouldn't be there now, but man, if I was 21, nothing would have stopped me from going to that party. Looks like a blast!
No doubt, as soon as everybody gets on campus, it will be business as usual for college kids. How could it not be? Only the most conscientious kids will be taking precautions, if even them! They are young, horny and invincible. I think people who think otherwise are fooling themselves. I would gamble that just about everybody who goes away to college, except for a very rare few, does something so dumb, that when they are my age(51), that they think "what the hell was I thinking". I can't believe the dumb shit I did at school.
I am just realizing this. It only took 51 years, and unfortunately, the only thing I can change is fat and drunk, I am stuck with the stupid.
thegock
Well-Known Member
Thanks for fixing the error, son.
Here's a link from today with different, but similar numbers. Of course they left off the Netherlands. Bastards.
Ugandan Conspiracy Theory
TX starting to see an increase in mortality.
Looking back - roughly 25 deaths per 1000 cases,
adjusting for lag of deaths behind daily cases - it looks like 60 deaths for 5000 cases
(just eyeballing it, and short term numbers)
TX and CA graphs are similar shape.
Looking back - roughly 25 deaths per 1000 cases,
adjusting for lag of deaths behind daily cases - it looks like 60 deaths for 5000 cases
(just eyeballing it, and short term numbers)
TX and CA graphs are similar shape.
rick81721
Lothar
You were better off linking the Uganda Times, at least it was readable. The failing NYT requires sign up to read - no thanks.
Anywho, this is an interesting take on Sweden - the guy is a chemist and not an epidemiologist but he said this 2 months ago and he pretty much nailed where Sweden is right now:
"ML: If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought."
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...-19-curve-could-be-naturally-self-flattening/
rick81721
Lothar
It has to go up with 5 - 10 times increase in new cases, but at just a fraction.
maybe he’s right. What’s a couple of thousand extra dead bodies if I could go out for a beer after work. Once I accepted that a beer was worth $9 that would just be a little more. #it’sjustnumbersanyway
Mahnken
Well-Known Member
How would 5-6k deaths be herd immunity? NJ has a smaller population and 3x as many deaths.
rick81721
Lothar
Something is going on there. New cases hit a second peak 2 weeks ago and now dropping. Deaths per day plummeting to near zero. I guess you can take Pat's "it's a conspiracy, they are lying" approach...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
thegock
Well-Known Member
Here is the bulk of the article from the NYT:
"LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”
The results of Sweden’s experience are relevant well beyond Scandinavian shores. In the United States, where the virus is spreading with alarming speed, many states have — at President Trump’s urging — avoided lockdowns or lifted them prematurely on the assumption that this would foster economic revival, allowing people to return to workplaces, shops and restaurants.
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalized with Covid-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life.
Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death, and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.
Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open. By contrast, Denmark and Norway opted for strict quarantines, banning large groups and locking down shops and restaurants.
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.
Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. The unemployment rate jumped to 9 percent in May from 7.1 percent in March. “The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated,” Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note.
This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year, and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6 percent in May from 4.1 percent in March."
BTW, Sweden with 5,420 deaths is still probably way short of herd immunity, but I will let you google the articles that I have already read.
While these numbers may seem catastrophic, what are we going to see play out as time goes on?
Sweden has a lot of deaths, that's to be expected. They may not be at herd immunity but they should have had a higher rate of infections as the disease would have gone through their country faster. The countries nearby are slowing the infection rates so they could have just as many deaths, just spread over a longer time period.
It's easy to point at Sweden NOW and claim they screwed up with lots of deaths, but over the next 12 months, everyone else may be as fucked, but they had closed economies during that time.
I've said it before, originally it was about flattening the curve to keep hospitals functioning. Now it's about flattening the curve as side much as possible, but the area under the curve will be the same.
Sweden has a lot of deaths, that's to be expected. They may not be at herd immunity but they should have had a higher rate of infections as the disease would have gone through their country faster. The countries nearby are slowing the infection rates so they could have just as many deaths, just spread over a longer time period.
It's easy to point at Sweden NOW and claim they screwed up with lots of deaths, but over the next 12 months, everyone else may be as fucked, but they had closed economies during that time.
I've said it before, originally it was about flattening the curve to keep hospitals functioning. Now it's about flattening the curve as side much as possible, but the area under the curve will be the same.