This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Like the picture were everyone is right next to each other ?

Remember the notion that nuclear bunkers were a waste because if you hid in one during a nuclear attack, what's the point of popping out to a destroyed world?

Similarly, what's the point of us all sitting inside with no interaction with other people. We'd turn into stb222 sitting at a computer in isolation stalking everyone through their social media postings criticizing every decision they make because it doesn't follow one-person's rules.

Yes, some people go out on group rides and may get close to each other, but 99% of the rest of their interactions are home with the family or food shopping with masks on. These group rides aren't a 1980s SanFran bathhouse, they're generally healthy people riding outdoors.
 

stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
Remember the notion that nuclear bunkers were a waste because if you hid in one during a nuclear attack, what's the point of popping out to a destroyed world?

Similarly, what's the point of us all sitting inside with no interaction with other people. We'd turn into stb222 sitting at a computer in isolation stalking everyone through their social media postings criticizing every decision they make because it doesn't follow one-person's rules.

Yes, some people go out on group rides and may get close to each other, but 99% of the rest of their interactions are home with the family or food shopping with masks on. These group rides aren't a 1980s SanFran bathhouse, they're generally healthy people riding outdoors.
I think you have mistaken that I don't do group rides. It was more @Patrick is is talking about distancing while posting a picture of people next to each other.

But to that point, how do you know in a group of 15 people that they are all "healthy"?
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
That is the unknown. Especially when so many younger, healthy people will be asymptomatic

https://bgr.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-outdoors-exercise-social-distancing/

When I say generally healthy, I don't mean as far as being able to have it and being asymptomatic and/or getting it, I'm referring to if someone catches it, they're healthy and will most likely be OK if contracting it.

There's lots of back and forth on if outdoor recreation is OK. You can pull articles either way, but the fact that if you're outdoors it's highly diluted so viral load will be lower.

One big thing is if you're doing group rides in a small group, you're probably doing it with the same core group continually. IE, Saturday morning coffee ride w/ the same folks every week.

I think you have mistaken that I don't do group rides. It was more @Patrick is is talking about distancing while posting a picture of people next to each other.

But to that point, how do you know in a group of 15 people that they are all "healthy"?

You don't know they're healthy, and that's part of the risk. If you have a compromised immune system, in a high risk group, etc, you should be taking extra precautions, like not going on a group ride.

I'm around situations where I may get exposed (work mostly), so therefore I stay far away from my parents who are in a higher risk group.
 

jShort

2018 Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Lead Technician
Team MTBNJ Halter's
I’m not staying on top of this thread but I saw this data and was really blown away.
People have pretty much stopped dying Coronavirus. I’m not saying it’s not going to go way back up. But it sure is interesting that this number is not on a single news site. It just seems like something that would be a headline. Somewhere.

 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
I’m not staying on top of this thread but I saw this data and was really blown away.
People have pretty much stopped dying Coronavirus. I’m not saying it’s not going to go way back up. But it sure is interesting that this number is not on a single news site. It just seems like something that would be a headline. Somewhere.

Thats one of Trump's talking pts that since death rate is low, it aint that bad. But I think none of the conservative news outlets are jumping on that wagon because they know that there is a 2 week lag. If the death rate remains low after 2 weeks, it will be all over Fox and etc.
 
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Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Hospital beds in hot spots are filling.
so a bit of a fire drill happening to increase capacity.
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
"Who would pick Sweden's results over Norway and Finland? Thought so. All three have similar population densities and cultures, yet Sweden has about 10X as many deaths per capita. Sweden even did much worse with regard to deaths per 1MM (because they did much worse with interventions to prevent cases, which prevent deaths) than more densely populated Denmark just to its south and even much larger and more densely populated Germany. Sweden's deaths per capita are right in range with the worst European countries, like the UK, Spain, Italy and France.

Country......Cases/1MM.......Deaths/1MM........Tests/1MM.....Density (per sq mi)
Sweden...........7238.....................538.....................51K.....................56
Finland............1310......................59............. .........46K....................43
Norway............1648......................46.......................66K....................41
Denmark.........2223......................105....................197K..................345
Germany.........2364......................109.....................70K...................576

And here's a link to a blog which shows much of the data in the table above, graphically.
https://ugandansatheart.blogspot.com/2020/04/uah-if-coronavirus-is-so-deadly-why-was.html"

So, Rick has fallen behind on updating the #'s from Florida, but I won't jump in!!!!

However, the data above [https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.198855/page-16#post-4627521] is for @Patrick and @rick81721 to revive the whole Sweden thing.

Good morning, campers!!!
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Haven't looked at their demographic breakdown, but if similar to others, they just did a crappy job of protecting their at-risk.
Like most countries, the bulk of deaths came early.
I don't trust their numbers anyway. They were taking a ton of pressure, then suddenly the trend changed.

just like the states that decided not to report deaths on 7/4. "to not disparage the holiday"

interesting article.
 
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mfennell

Well-Known Member
I’m not staying on top of this thread but I saw this data and was really blown away.
People have pretty much stopped dying Coronavirus. I’m not saying it’s not going to go way back up. But it sure is interesting that this number is not on a single news site. It just seems like something that would be a headline. Somewhere.

You have to read the notes at the bottom:
NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Counts of deaths occurring before or after the reporting period are not included in the table. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

The 7 day average continues to hover around 500/day. Source.
 

rick81721

Lothar
"Who would pick Sweden's results over Norway and Finland? Thought so. All three have similar population densities and cultures, yet Sweden has about 10X as many deaths per capita. Sweden even did much worse with regard to deaths per 1MM (because they did much worse with interventions to prevent cases, which prevent deaths) than more densely populated Denmark just to its south and even much larger and more densely populated Germany. Sweden's deaths per capita are right in range with the worst European countries, like the UK, Spain, Italy and France.

Country......Cases/1MM.......Deaths/1MM........Tests/1MM.....Density (per sq mi)
Sweden...........7238.....................538.....................51K.....................56
Finland............1310......................59............. .........46K....................43
Norway............1648......................46.......................66K....................41
Denmark.........2223......................105....................197K..................345
Germany.........2364......................109.....................70K...................576

And here's a link to a blog which shows much of the data in the table above, graphically.
https://ugandansatheart.blogspot.com/2020/04/uah-if-coronavirus-is-so-deadly-why-was.html"

So, Rick has fallen behind on updating the #'s from Florida, but I won't jump in!!!!

However, the data above [https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.198855/page-16#post-4627521] is for @Patrick and @rick81721 to revive the whole Sweden thing.

Good morning, campers!!!

You conveniently left the Netherlands off, which has a more similar result death/million to Sweden. Nobody claimed Sweden wouldn't have more deaths than other countries that took stricter measures, but it never exploded as some predicted nor did their healthcare system ever get overwhelmed.

Back to FL vs NJ, I'm trying to figure out why people in NJ are still dying right now at a rate several times higher than FL, when you adjust for population and number of new cases found 2+ weeks ago. ICU Healthcare not as good? Or is the infected population less healthy up here?
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
Another week or two and I think the deaths will start rising in Florida. That'll be like 5 or 6 weeks since the new case count started surging.
 

rick81721

Lothar
Another week or two and I think the deaths will start rising in Florida. That'll be like 5 or 6 weeks since the new case count started surging.

So now you are saying deaths lag new cases by 6 - 7 weeks when before it has always been 2 weeks? Deaths will go up, but they are not rising in any way proportional to new cases. Average age of new cases is mid-30s
 
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thegock

Well-Known Member
You conveniently left the Netherlands off, which has a more similar result death/million to Sweden. Nobody claimed Sweden wouldn't have more deaths than other countries that took stricter measures, but it never exploded as some predicted nor did their healthcare system ever get overwhelmed.

Back to FL vs NJ, I'm trying to figure out why people in NJ are still dying right now at a rate several times higher than FL, when you adjust for population and number of new cases found 2+ weeks ago. ICU Healthcare not as good? Or is the infected population less healthy up here?

Just to be clear: I didn't "conveniently (leave) off the Netherlands..." or anything. I quoted the post and included the link.

Sweden has had about 10 times the deaths of Finland or Norway, which seem more comparable to me.

I asked Dr. Joe about that NJ/FLA difference in death rates yesterday and he said that the medical community now has a better idea of how to treat the virus, but that may not be the entire explanation.
 

rick81721

Lothar
Just to be clear: I didn't "conveniently (leave) off the Netherlands..." or anything. I quoted the post and included the link.

Sweden has had about 10 times the deaths of Finland or Norway, which seem more comparable to me.

I asked Dr. Joe about that NJ/FLA difference in death rates yesterday and he said that the medical community now has a better idea of how to treat the virus, but that may not be the entire explanation.

OK so it's the Ugandans at heart source (seriously??).

I looked at the latest deaths in NJ vs FL today - using 7 day averages for deaths and 7 day averages for new cases 2 weeks ago. People in NJ are dying from covid at 4.7 TIMES the rate in Florida, right now. I really don't understand why.

Edit - I forgot to adjust new cases 2 weeks ago by population. Last time I looked at this NJ was ~ 3 times the death rate so 10 times seemed off.
 
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jShort

2018 Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Lead Technician
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Back to FL vs NJ, I'm trying to figure out why people in NJ are still dying right now at a rate several times higher than FL, when you adjust for population and number of new cases found 2+ weeks ago. ICU Healthcare not as good? Or is the infected population less healthy up here?


Maybe there was a more deadly strain up here? And what has been spreading is less deadly? Didn’t a few scientists say they saw a reduced strain after the initial wave?

For the 50-70k new cases daily, these death rates are really really low. I get the lag, but it should have caught up or at least started to catch up by now.
 

stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
I looked at the latest deaths in NJ vs FL today - using 7 day averages for deaths and 7 day averages for new cases 2 weeks ago. People in NJ are dying from covid at 10 TIMES the rate in Florida, right now. I really don't understand why.
Actual footage of Rick trying to figure this out:
rHXfVep.gif
 

MadisonDan

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Maybe there was a more deadly strain up here? And what has been spreading is less deadly? Didn’t a few scientists say they saw a reduced strain after the initial wave?

For the 50-70k new cases daily, these death rates are really really low. I get the lag, but it should have caught up or at least started to catch up by now.
NJ must be 5G related tho..... :eek:
 
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