This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Santapez

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
mfennell said:
Those first two ... do not strike me as good ideas. I know I'm a broken record on this but find me a big bank or tech firm that has their people coming into the office and working in close quarters. What does your company know that they don't? Wells Fargo was going to move forward with up to 20% of their trading floor going in. They just pulled back.

My local Whole Foods limits customers in the store so it's not crowded. The Stop and Shop, more crowded, but I can use a hand held scanner and put my groceries directly into my bags, which is awesome. I'm not so worried about the supermarket. Infection is exposure over time. Walking past someone (especially one wearing a mask) isn't going to do it.

FWIW, our risk tolerance has settled at "I will ride with my friends and my wife will run with hers". I'm taking the greater risk since so much of my riding is on the road in a line.
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My Work - Not saying it is a good idea with my company. However we have a lot of people that happened to have Covid, so they've got that nice free pass. There are a bunch of people that do work from home avoiding the office, no issue with people who can do that.

I think a lot of it really comes down to the fact that they're all sharing the same area/tools/bathrooms/1.5 hour ride-sharing/etc, so unless we go nuclear, masks are kind of pissing on the forest fire of prevention.

My Jobsites - I'd say it's pretty much people who didn't graduate from high school working municipal jobs with a don't-give-a-fuck attitude. Hard to tell the guy who may be drinking at lunch time, with a cigarette in his mouth that he needs to be concerned about Covid. Plus, we work in wastewater so Covid actually not the worst disease we are afraid of.

I do have to say, the person-to-person interactions are a million times better with no masks. Masks make communication complicated and remove a huge layer of trust.

Often we'll meet someone new, while standing 15 feet from them and do the bullshit talk. Then put masks on, go look at equipment, discuss problems/solutions, etc. Then we'll go back to a quiet area, hang out a far distance from each other while the masks are off.

rick81721 said:
looks like nj is entering mask fatigue. Just got back from shoprite - one really old lady (80+) with no mask. at least 6 people of various ages with masks over mouth only.
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I'm sure this is part of it and there may be just a slide to no-masks. If you walk into a store with everyone wearing masks, you'll be certain to wear yours. If nobody is wearing a mask, it's unlikely you'll wear it.
 
JerseyPete

JerseyPete

Well-Known Member
serviceguy said:
Yes, I may have mentioned that in the past...




Here's my problems with that:

"There are undoubtedly some details of the social interactions within Vo' that won't apply elsewhere."
they may seem as small details to somebody not familiar to Italian life style, but those small villages have very different habits and demographics than the rest of the country. Each region has very different life styles which are sometimes extremely different from town to town due to ancient historical reasons.

"But it's also probably a lot closer to "normal" interactions than other cases where we've seen these sorts of detailed surveys of populations done, such as cruise ships."
never been on a cruise but in an Italian town of 3000 chances are that each and every resident know each other and are friendly with each other. Also the general Italian attitude towards rules and regulations (they written for everybody else but me) can definitely throw a fig wrench into any analysis.

"And, with enough examples like Vo', we can get a clearer picture of what the typical behavior of the virus looks like."
This would have required collecting the data on the other 'examples' at the same time, little too later to do the same study.
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Thanks. Your perspective on Italian lifestyle is something that is not conveyed in the article.
 
serviceguy

serviceguy

Well-Known Member
JerseyPete said:
Thanks. Your perspective on Italian lifestyle is something that is not conveyed in the article.
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I don't know this specific writer (not that I know many) but in recent years I noticed a general 'slacking' in the work ethic of reporters compensated by their growing laziness, probably compounded by travelling costs cuts.

Thanks to social media they get their facts form official or not so official media outlets that may or maybe not be influenced by the government, party, movement or whatever is the cool-aid of choice they drink.

A ridiculous example is how a notoriously biased Italian newspaper reported what they considered criminal behavior of the then in charge prime minister, the next day The Guardian would run the english literal translation of the same article and the day after that the same Italian newspaper as well as all the other papers ran an article about how the international media condemned the action of the prime minister which meant he had to e guilty. Public outrage did follow. Turned out to be fake news.
 
Norm

Norm

Mayor McCheese
Team MTBNJ Halter's
The days of spending money on media coverage are gone @serviceguy. I’ve read about this in countless directions. There’s no money to have reporters all over the place so more and more the official press release is the source.

But we as consumers don’t want to pay for truth. We as a society would rather have free lies. It makes for better headlines anyway.
 
thegock

thegock

Well-Known Member
rick81721 said:
looks like nj is entering mask fatigue. Just got back from shoprite - one really old lady (80+) with no mask. at least 6 people of various ages with masks over mouth only.
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I was in Stop and Shop today in Union County. I saw 40-50 customers and staff. All had properly worn masks on.

In front of me on line at HD Woodbridge yesterday was one customer with his nose exposed, one clerk with her mask on her chin and one cashier with a mask necklace. I went to a different register.
 
rick81721

rick81721

Lothar
thegock said:
I was in Stop and Shop today in Union County. I saw 40-50 customers and staff. All had properly worn masks on.

In front of me on line at HD Woodbridge yesterday was one customer with his nose exposed, one clerk with her mask on her chin and one cashier with a mask necklace. I went to a different register.
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I was at Dickerson mine today - popped out down by the lakes and took a look at the beach club. Lots of young people and kids crowded on the beach and in the water. No social distancing, and obviously, no masks.
 
stb222

stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
rick81721 said:
I was at Dickerson mine today - popped out down by the lakes and took a look at the beach club. Lots of young people and kids crowded on the beach and in the water. No social distancing, and obviously, no masks.
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I wish there was a good way to track people
Coming to the shore locations, getting covid and taking it back home.
 
Paul H

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
Patrick said:
Well - we are going to find out the answer - and the 4th of July should be very telling.
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So what is our opinions now?
Obviously NY/NJ are way down but the rest of the country?
Death is not skyrocketing but rate of infections are. Are we better now or worst than in May?
Some are saying the CV19 has mutated and its now more infectious.

 
Patrick

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Paul H said:
So what is our opinions now?
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Laid it out a bit in a few days ago. Rick also noticed it - Deaths are going up, but not at the rate of infections.
People in low risk groups are willing to take the risk, and many are getting sick. The at-risk community is
doing their thing to be safe, and the healthcare system has improved treatment protocols. Notice the ventilator thing
has gone away - even in florida where cases are spiking - not because of a shortage, but more because if
intubated, death is a higher probability than not doing it. (crazy - probably still make the call to do it to some)

The whole quarantine fatigue thing is coming into play.

I haven't been able to find an animated heat map of cases - thought that might be interesting.

Here is TX - their FU attitude in the beginning, lead by the governor who said something to the tune of, "nobody asked me to vote on masks"
saw very few cases - with lots of deaths early.

1593861825557.png

From their dashboard - deaths by age group, gender, and ethnic background.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards
txdshs.maps.arcgis.com txdshs.maps.arcgis.com



This is sampled/investigated data from the total cases (190,000 to date)
1593862050796.png

TX has slightly more than doubled their cases since 6/15 - deaths up by 30% (we'll need to check back in two weeks tho)
1593862175216.png
 
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rick81721

rick81721

Lothar
thegock

thegock

Well-Known Member
A retired pharma scientist posts tech citations on the Rivals Rutgers Football forum. It is pinned to the top

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

So, @ashokan @wisr01 @Proud NJ Sports Fan etc. - you guys seem to be implying that death rates aren't going to climb at all or much in spiking states like TX/FL/GA/CA/AZ. I'm on record saying I think we'll see peaks at 1/2-2/3 the per capita peak death rates we saw in the NE US (let's say NY...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com rutgers.forums.rivals.com

The original thread was over a couple hundred pages long, but the mods shut it down, when the "No worse than the flu" crowd couldn't refrain from the political posts.

The ? is that the guy is from Metuchen, the 'Brainy Boro.'

His citations recently included a discussion on the 2 strains of the C19 virus---614D and 614G. The newer one has mutated and is very contagious, but I am not an epidemiology expert and Dr. Joe was busy playing chess, so I was not able to get some clarification.

Thanks for the informative, rational posts,
Fidodie

IMG_20200622_131920-01.jpeg
 
serviceguy

serviceguy

Well-Known Member
I'm not going to read the last few hundred pages to answer my own question, but is it being taken into account the fact that you can only die once? I mean, once we run out of 'at risk' patients (and eventually human beings) the mortality rate should be trending to zero...
 
rick81721

rick81721

Lothar
serviceguy said:
I'm not going to read the last few hundred pages to answer my own question, but is it being taken into account the fact that you can only die once? I mean, once we run out of 'at risk' patients (and eventually human beings) the mortality rate should be trending to zero...
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Mortality rate is total deaths/total infected. It is a characteristic of the disease and doesn't change much unless the organism responsible mutates. As more people get infected and acquire immunity, the smaller the pool for spreading the disease to others, so the infection rate drops. Same effect with a vaccine.
 
mfennell

mfennell

Well-Known Member
rick81721 said:
Pre-empt @thegock - 11,400 new cases in FL!

244 new hospitalizations, 18 new deaths

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/coronavirus/2020/07/03/daily-coronavirus-coverage
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Or 67.

www.nytimes.com

Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Florida.
www.nytimes.com

Or 68.
www.worldometers.info

Florida COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Florida COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Patrick

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
serviceguy said:
I'm not going to read the last few hundred pages to answer my own question, but is it being taken into account the fact that you can only die once? I mean, once we run out of 'at risk' patients (and eventually human beings) the mortality rate should be trending to zero...
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or we go with something more like Logan's Run.
 
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