This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
I don't like this pattern.
NY/NJ are flat. The rest of the country, not so much.
It probably isn't fair to generalize - as many other states are flat or slightly declining, while hot-spots
pop up - like Nebraska.

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rick81721

Lothar
I don't like this pattern.
NY/NJ are flat. The rest of the country, not so much.
It probably isn't fair to generalize - as many other states are flat or slightly declining, while hot-spots
pop up - like Nebraska.

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You worry too much. Basically flat for 3 weeks.

Elsewhere, Sweden is obviously not exploding nor will it's health care system collapse - this tells me that basic social distancing is sufficient to keep this in check, at least in places with lower population density. NYC is obviously a different story.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
You worry too much. Basically flat for 3 weeks.

Elsewhere, Sweden is obviously not exploding nor will it's health care system collapse - this tells me that basic social distancing is sufficient to keep this in check, at least in places with lower population density. NYC is obviously a different story.

except those peaks that happen about every 7 days which used to be 19,000 when ny/nj was hot, and now is 29,000 when nj/ny are flat.

sweden is only reporting people who show up at a hospital and test positive - they are still claiming 50%+ by mid may. (modeled untested)
they are not inclined to report more as it does not support their policy. their deaths per M are top 10, while their
cases per million are #24. I'd also bet they only report confirmed deaths - vs probable.

Their healthcare system is still viable, which is the critical measure.
 

rick81721

Lothar
except those peaks that happen about every 7 days which used to be 19,000 when ny/nj was hot, and now is 29,000 when nj/ny are flat.

sweden is only reporting people who show up at a hospital and test positive - they are still claiming 50%+ by mid may. (modeled untested)
they are not inclined to report more as it does not support their policy. their deaths per M are top 10, while their
cases per million are #24. I'd also bet they only report confirmed deaths - vs probable.

Their healthcare system is still viable, which is the critical measure.

I don't know where you are getting info on sweden but it doesn't sound right. 50% positive by mid-may?? Their deaths/day peaked 12 days ago and are declining. If they have 50% infected by mid-may, assuming they get to 2900 deaths, that's a death rate of 0.058%!
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
Still no TP at BJ's
Now, no meat. There are reg milk but clean out of organic milk. Yes... I know... boo hoo.

So many more cars on the road in the last couple of days. I doubt they are all going to parks.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Few thoughts:

-Inreference to Patrick's #s. I'd expect cases/deaths/etc in other states to be going up. Their start to this was later that WA/NY/NJ so their curve should be trailing ours.

-My company is back to work 100%, although there's a few stragglers not coming into the office. A good number of the people here got Covid, got over it, quarantined for 2 weeks. There was a push to get anti-body testing, but I think that mostly has died out. Yes we're esssential.

-Had a meeting for a new project out on Long Island. Was rather weird in the fact that NO masks were worn, everyone was shaking hands on introductions. Until the desk lady inside the plant flipped out and then everyone started wearing masks... The representative from the engineering firm showed up with a mask on, never took it off I'm sure due to company policy. What's weird is I never saw his face so the person-to-person interaction is completely weird.

-Panera in NYC (Queens) let's you fill your own cup of coffee, sweetener/milk etc, inside the restaurant. No sitting and have to wear a mask, but I thought that was interesting especially being NYC.
 

Zaskar

Well-Known Member
So many more cars on the road in the last couple of days. I doubt they are all going to parks.

I noticed A LOT more cars on my ride last night. Not sure where everyone is going. I've purchased gas once since mid-march, other car is electric :)
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
Ok... doom & gloom... look away now!

Looks like 2nd wave is going to hit hard from the sound of things.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
NY/NJ for comparison.

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Only 17 states have a trailing 5 day average new cases per day lower than their long term average new cases per day.
NY/NJ being two of them
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
I've purchased gas once since mid-march, other car is electric :)
HA! Of our two cars... the SUV still has half a tank. Prolly driven once in the last 2 months? Our other car, just filled the tank yesterday. It was nice that gas price was $1.69 per gallon... versus $2+ the last time.
 
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