This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
Sweden's prevalence is not terrible. A tad high but not terrible.
But it's obvious from the 10% mortality rate the tests are a bit lacking. The other 3 Scandinavian countries are 5% then 2.5% and 2.6%. This is why I stated that because either more Swedish people die from this than anywhere else, or the testing rate falls far short.
rick81721
Lothar
I'm not sure why people think other Scandinavian countries are the only relevant comparisons. Sweden's deaths/positive cases is on par with the Netherlands, their deaths/total population is lower. Same when compared to UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium.
Sweden: 1765/15322 - 11.5%
Netherlands: 3916/34134 - 11.5%
UK: 16509/124743 - 13.2%
France: 20265/155383 - 13%
Spain: 21282/204178 - 10.4%
Italy: 24114/181228 - 13.3%
Belgium: 5998/40956 - 14.6%
US: 42531/792958 - 5.4%
Ok, fair enough.
Netherlands is more aligned with UK/Germany/France/Belgium.
(and i just clicked on norm's post.)
so if they share land borders finland, norway, and denmark (big bridge) - why do they stick out?
throw in iceland and greenland - using the weather/UV idea.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia - same thing.
you've grouped them with countries not in their cohort to support your belief.
(and i just clicked on norm's post.)
so if they share land borders finland, norway, and denmark (big bridge) - why do they stick out?
throw in iceland and greenland - using the weather/UV idea.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia - same thing.
you've grouped them with countries not in their cohort to support your belief.
rick81721
Lothar
Cohort based on what? Geography??
I have no belief here, just following what the prevalence data shows me.
geo, weather, latitude, shared borders, density (?)
it is a bad look. and if they are "on par" with spain, france, etc. are they on their way to deaths/Million?
perhaps not - the people are more aware of the situation at the lower prevalence and will self mitigate - i hope.
time is going to pass either way - as i said, i hope i'm wrong -
rick81721
Lothar
linear after 4/1 - and may never hit it - i hope. unless it is your portfolio in $1,000s
rick81721
Lothar
That was Sweden covid positive over the last 31 days - which I assume is symptomatic.
But wait, maybe they are already at 1,000,000 infections:
https://www.rt.com/news/486471-sweden-contracted-coronavirus-antibody-study/
If so, their death rate is 0.17%
i like 0.2% for the death rate given the healthcare industry stays afloat.
Steve Vai
Endurance Guy: Tolerates most of us.
This will not end well.
you can still get paddled at home.
Tim
aka sptimmy43
Sorry I am late to the party.
No, the testing numbers are not reliable.
No, we are not confident in the accuracy of the test.
Yes, there are multiple testing standards in play.
Yes, accuracy varies by test type and relative timing of testing.
This post basically summarized why the numbers are misleading at this point.
-----
So as far as Sweden goes my understanding is this: They obviously chose a different strategy which trusts their citizens to make responsible decisions. They are willing to accept an initially steeper curve to "get it over with" quicker and potentially have less impact on their economy.
All other things being equal, the area under the curve is the same whether it's steep and short or flat and long. This assumes a miracle vaccine does not come into play and that those who will get sick will get sick. Those who will die will die. The goal is to prevent unnecessary death because the hospitals are overrun and the health care system has collapsed. We won't know if Sweden made a good decision for weeks. It should not be surprising right now if the curve is steeper. They aren't locked down. They are living their lives. Will they be better off in the long run both with health and their economy?
One last tidbit: I checked the status of NJ hospitals last night at about 8:00. There were exactly ZERO hospitals diverting incoming patients.
No, the testing numbers are not reliable.
No, we are not confident in the accuracy of the test.
Yes, there are multiple testing standards in play.
Yes, accuracy varies by test type and relative timing of testing.
This post basically summarized why the numbers are misleading at this point.
-----
So as far as Sweden goes my understanding is this: They obviously chose a different strategy which trusts their citizens to make responsible decisions. They are willing to accept an initially steeper curve to "get it over with" quicker and potentially have less impact on their economy.
All other things being equal, the area under the curve is the same whether it's steep and short or flat and long. This assumes a miracle vaccine does not come into play and that those who will get sick will get sick. Those who will die will die. The goal is to prevent unnecessary death because the hospitals are overrun and the health care system has collapsed. We won't know if Sweden made a good decision for weeks. It should not be surprising right now if the curve is steeper. They aren't locked down. They are living their lives. Will they be better off in the long run both with health and their economy?
One last tidbit: I checked the status of NJ hospitals last night at about 8:00. There were exactly ZERO hospitals diverting incoming patients.
JPark
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Flatten the curve isn't meant to reduce the number of infected people, it's meant to spread it out over a longer time period so the hospitals don't get overrun.
So instead of X amount of people getting infected in a month, X amount get infected over 3 months for example.
So instead of X amount of people getting infected in a month, X amount get infected over 3 months for example.
Well almost.
As a general rule the more effectively a hospital runs the fewer people die. So if the hospital system can handle everyone who goes, the second X is actually going to be less than the first X.
How much less is probably an unknown and unknowable variable.
As a general rule the more effectively a hospital runs the fewer people die. So if the hospital system can handle everyone who goes, the second X is actually going to be less than the first X.
How much less is probably an unknown and unknowable variable.
mfennell
Well-Known Member
Two right now.
But regardless, the trend is good. I was told Riverview Medical Center in Red Bank peaked at 50 COVID patients and was at 20 a day or two ago. A lot of people in the area work for big Wall Street firms who were out ahead of it and had their people transitioning to WFH a week before Murphy told businesses to shut down. Obviously contributing, the surrounding community is filled with the kind of people who can work from their (large, comfortable) home.