Coronavirus

rick81721

Lothar
Sweden has no reason to report anyone not serious/non-critical/dead. Why would they?
their plan is people are going to get sick, deal with it.
So your claim is they are hiding cases? I see no evidence of that. They have tested 0.7% of their population, we are up to 1.1%. It's not like they are doing nothing - they are social distancing. Whatever they are doing, it is not resulting in the predicted "explosion".
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
So your claim is they are hiding cases? I see no evidence of that. They have tested 0.7% of their population, we are up to 1.1%. It's not like they are doing nothing - they are social distancing. Whatever they are doing, it is not resulting in the predicted "explosion".
relative to finland and norway they are getting hammered.

it has been 5 days (?) since my prediction of a meltdown on day 45.
let it simmer. and ftr, i hope i'm wrong.
 

rick81721

Lothar
relative to finland and norway they are getting hammered.

it has been 5 days (?) since my prediction of a meltdown on day 45.
let it simmer. and ftr, i hope i'm wrong.
Yeah but you have to have exponential growth for a meltdown. It's just not happening.

Here's another possibility - maybe this whole thing will fizzle out as temps warm - like seasonal flu. Is it a coincidence that the hardest hit states in the US are in colder climates?
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
That post was from like 6 weeks ago. Which in today’s news flooded world is like 6 years. At the time there were very few accounts of people actually surviving. Now, yes there’s plenty.
The "accounts of people surviving" wasn't what I was pointing out from six weeks ago. It was the "kinda like...the flu."

Just like the flu, but so much more effective a killer of people.

It's not like the flu.
 

serviceguy

Well-Known Member
Yeah but you have to have exponential growth for a meltdown. It's just not happening.

Here's another possibility - maybe this whole thing will fizzle out as temps warm - like seasonal flu. Is it a coincidence that the hardest hit states in the US are in colder climates?
Any idea where is Sweden? That would work against your temperature hypothesis. I personally believe that a lot has to do with people behavior, Northern Europeans tend to be more organized, respect the rules/laws More than the average Mediterranean European and less incline to touching (hugging, kissing etc.) which makes them perceived as ‘cold’...
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member

Fat Trout

Well-Known Member
Has this been covered? ie some folks that might have had this before it was more known. The more this goes on the more I think I "might" have had this in late January. I had a usual seasonal funk in late December but a month later I got something esle. It started slow but spent 9 days in my chest....all total it was almost 2 weeks start to finish. Double the usual time it took to kick anything I've had in the past and really kinda sucked hard at its worst... and then after it was done I had a light cough for 2 weeks more and even then wasn't perfect. makes me wonder.
 

rick81721

Lothar
Any idea where is Sweden? That would work against your temperature hypothesis. I personally believe that a lot has to do with people behavior, Northern Europeans tend to be more organized, respect the rules/laws More than the average Mediterranean European and less incline to touching (hugging, kissing etc.) which makes them perceived as ‘cold’...
yeah I think sweden is more related to social behavior and smaller family size. But the US sure shows a trend.
 

rick81721

Lothar
looks good.
View attachment 126276
Lame graph using raw data since Sweden has twice the population of the other 3 countries listed.

And yes, Sweden looks pretty good compared to Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, NY, NJ, CT, MA...
 
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rick81721

Lothar
forgot my covid observations of the day: 1) road traffic has increased significantly. The days of deserted roads seem to be over. 2) many more people wearing masks in publix today, I'd say 90%. Tho I saw an old lady wearing a mask that looked like a small Chinese food carton strapped over her mouth and nose. oh and blue arrows are back on the floors.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Lame graph using raw data since Sweden has twice the population of the other 3 countries listed.

And yes, Sweden looks pretty good compared to Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, NY, NJ, CT, MA...
still looks good. Deaths per 1M pop
also less testing compared to their neighbors.

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
San Marino4623961362413,6161,1491,72650,868
Belgium40,956+9735,998+1709,00225,9561,0793,534518167,11014,419
Andorra71737248432179,2804791,67321,653
Spain204,178+3,96821,282+43082,514100,3827,7054,367455930,23019,896
Italy181,22824,11448,877108,2372,5732,9973991,398,02423,122
France155,38320,26537,40997,7095,6832,380310463,6627,103
UK124,74316,509N/A107,8901,5591,838243501,3797,386
Netherlands33,4053,751N/A29,4041,1581,950219171,41510,004
Switzerland27,9441,436+718,6007,9083863,229166224,44225,933
Sweden14,7771,58055012,6475211,46315674,6007,387
Ireland15,6526877714,8882943,17013990,64618,358
Channel Islands48824733912,8071383,32019,095
Luxembourg3,558756372,846325,68412033,79853,992
Isle of Man300920091153,5281062,50929,506
Monaco943236832,39576
Portugal20,86373561019,5182152,04672235,87823,133
Denmark7,695+1803644,3123,019841,32963100,54317,358
Germany147,0654,86295,20047,0032,8891,755581,728,35720,629
Austria14,873+78491+2110,9713,4111961,65155189,01820,987
Slovenia1,335771931,065266423741,80220,107
Norway7,156182+1326,942561,32034143,25526,425
Estonia1,552+1743+31691,34091,1703242,21331,822
Iceland1,773101,36240145,1962943,143126,429
Liechtenstein81155252,1242690023,605
North Macedonia1,231+655+122495295912612,3405,923
Romania9,242+306482+42,1536,60724548025101,5525,279
Hungary2,098+114213+142871,598822172250,0525,181
Czechia6,914+14196+21,5975,1217564618178,61716,679
Finland4,014+146982,0001,916677241861,44711,090
Moldova2,54872+25051,9712126321811,7632,916
Bosnia and Herzegovina1,342+3351+243785444091619,1955,851
Lithuania1,350+24372981,015174961470,75325,990
Serbia6,6301258705,6351087591441,8124,785
Croatia1,881477711,063184581126,6106,482
Greece2,2451165771,552612151154,3445,214
Poland9,737+144385+51,2978,05516025710214,2365,661
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
NJ has not seen a significant downturn in cases per day since 4/6

1587468977964.png

NY seems to have it going in the right direction

1587470479808.png
 

rick81721

Lothar
still looks good. Deaths per 1M pop
also less testing compared to their neighbors.

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
San Marino4623961362413,6161,1491,72650,868
Belgium40,956+9735,998+1709,00225,9561,0793,534518167,11014,419
Andorra71737248432179,2804791,67321,653
Spain204,178+3,96821,282+43082,514100,3827,7054,367455930,23019,896
Italy181,22824,11448,877108,2372,5732,9973991,398,02423,122
France155,38320,26537,40997,7095,6832,380310463,6627,103
UK124,74316,509N/A107,8901,5591,838243501,3797,386
Netherlands33,4053,751N/A29,4041,1581,950219171,41510,004
Switzerland27,9441,436+718,6007,9083863,229166224,44225,933
Sweden14,7771,58055012,6475211,46315674,6007,387
Ireland15,6526877714,8882943,17013990,64618,358
Channel Islands48824733912,8071383,32019,095
Luxembourg3,558756372,846325,68412033,79853,992
Isle of Man300920091153,5281062,50929,506
Monaco943236832,39576
Portugal20,86373561019,5182152,04672235,87823,133
Denmark7,695+1803644,3123,019841,32963100,54317,358
Germany147,0654,86295,20047,0032,8891,755581,728,35720,629
Austria14,873+78491+2110,9713,4111961,65155189,01820,987
Slovenia1,335771931,065266423741,80220,107
Norway7,156182+1326,942561,32034143,25526,425
Estonia1,552+1743+31691,34091,1703242,21331,822
Iceland1,773101,36240145,1962943,143126,429
Liechtenstein81155252,1242690023,605
North Macedonia1,231+655+122495295912612,3405,923
Romania9,242+306482+42,1536,60724548025101,5525,279
Hungary2,098+114213+142871,598822172250,0525,181
Czechia6,914+14196+21,5975,1217564618178,61716,679
Finland4,014+146982,0001,916677241861,44711,090
Moldova2,54872+25051,9712126321811,7632,916
Bosnia and Herzegovina1,342+3351+243785444091619,1955,851
Lithuania1,350+24372981,015174961470,75325,990
Serbia6,6301258705,6351087591441,8124,785
Croatia1,881477711,063184581126,6106,482
Greece2,2451165771,552612151154,3445,214
Poland9,737+144385+51,2978,05516025710214,2365,661
Agreed, Sweden does still look good. You focus on deaths but we know from yesterday's discussion re: NY vs rest of US that varies widely dependent on health, age, sex of those infected. Incidence of disease in Sweden vs some neighbors is similar, and growth rate of new cases is declining.
 
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