This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

68nova200

Well-Known Member
I could be wrong, but I think your basic calculations are too basic.
How are they too basic? If you really think about it it all checks out. Just count how many times you touch something in 15 minutes using mass transit. They say the virus survives 12 hours on a surface. How many people touch a handrail in the subway in an hour? The infection rate just isn't anywhere near what they are saying.
 

one piece crank

Well-Known Member
How are they too basic? If you really think about it it all checks out. Just count how many times you touch something in 15 minutes using mass transit. They say the virus survives 12 hours on a surface. How many people touch a handrail in the subway in an hour? The infection rate just isn't anywhere near what they are saying.

Are you going to go ride the subway for a few hours, ungloved, rubbing your eyes and picking your nose?
 

68nova200

Well-Known Member
Are you going to go ride the subway for a few hours, ungloved, rubbing your eyes and picking your nose?
Doesn't 99.9% of people do that during every normal flu season? My numbers are solid. Find me evidence that 98.5% of subway riders was PPE'd up to the max on 3/20. Only then can you tell me my numbers are wrong.
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
How are they too basic? If you really think about it it all checks out. Just count how many times you touch something in 15 minutes using mass transit. They say the virus survives 12 hours on a surface. How many people touch a handrail in the subway in an hour? The infection rate just isn't anywhere near what they are saying.
It's just all wrong and uses too many assumptions.
 

68nova200

Well-Known Member
In my (and many other people way smarter than me) opinion the numbers that are being used to force these stay at home measures are using an equal number of assumptions.
 

stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
3vw0o4.jpg
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Assuming my 1.5% infection rate in the most densely populated part of the country is accurate. Then only 4.5 million in the USA will contract it if we go about normal business. I think the last time I went to the city I easily walked past about 5000 people in a mile. So let me run some numbers based on that and the number of new cases reported on 3/20 in NYC. 3762 new cases reported on 3/20. Nearly all of those people took mass transit to get tested. Lets say 500 people per case positive interacted in a way that would pass along infection. There should be 1.8 million new cases in the 2 to 14 days after 3/20. Bottom line is that this thing really isn't that infectious and I think my basic calculations prove that pretty effectively.

you could then do your calculation a week ago, and claim 1% infection rate, or a week before that an claim .75%
and it does not account for the arrival rate of 10,000 more people per day right now across NY state.

i will counter with the diamond princess. is a 950' cruise ship with 4,400 (some sites report as few as 3,700) people on it with 13 decks, more or less crowded than
NYC? They quarantined to quarters, and ended up with 712 cases. your example says it should have stopped sub 100.

I think your point is that if we modified our usual practices we will not see the unmitigated rate that I outlined.
Since we don't pick our nose or shake hands anymore, there will be a slowing. masks, gloves perhaps?
I don't disagree with that, i do claim it is still an unacceptable rate
that will crush the healthcare system.

The transmission by 1 person was estimated (it was something between 1.8 and 2.4 infected per person infected,)
the probability of becoming infected goes up with the number of people infected, until it is nearly unavoidable.
this is the issue with this type of growth. Then the "active" curve subtracts the resolved cases, which
is how it turns back down. if it turns down fast enough, herd immunity can be reached, but the resolve
rate is too slow, and the asymptomatic rate is too high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

instant-read covid-19 blow tests !

1586371295075.png
Sick people will be locked up for not self quarantining.
 
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Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
I would argue that the world was never the same after all of those events, and @Santa is right that it won't be the same after this event. Most of us will be ok, just like most of us were ok after all those other things you listed. I also just want to clarify that me saying that Dom is right doesn't mean he isn't an idiot though :p

I won't disagree.

On another serious note, have we seen anything on decision making of who gets taken off ventilators and doesn't get ICU care once the hospitals are overloaded?

If Murphy goes on record saying "No medical care for anyone caught throwing their nitrile gloves on the ground" I'll volunteer for his re-election compaign.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
at somepoint the ambulances get diverted to other hospitals once X hospital is full....When people get taken off ventilators depends on many things im told.

Can't we get a better system?

Like "Yeah, come on by, we've got a bunch of bad tippers here, we'll prioritize the person in your ambulance since they volunteer at the soup kitchen"
 

Norm

Mayor McCheese
Team MTBNJ Halter's
What’s up with the number of cases in Nevada today? Did someone find that missing box with all the test results?
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
What are you looking at? Historical trends have shown number of new cases per day fluctuates between 100 - 230 the last 4 days


https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=ey...0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9

the 376 reported today.

 

Norm

Mayor McCheese
Team MTBNJ Halter's
What are you looking at? Historical trends have shown number of new cases per day fluctuates between 100 - 230 the last 4 days


https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=ey...0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9

I use this:

It has since corrected itself. Nevada was at 25,000 overall with 22,500 positive results today. It’s back to “normal” now.
 

rlb

Well-Known Member
I just don't know how you can open up pretty much ANYTHING without rationing. If you open up restaurants and say 1/4 or 1/3 seating, you'll have a mob outside. Probably would need to institute some sort of other rule like you can go to restaurants on alternating days based on the letter of the name of your street you live on or something.

There will be a little bit of self balance here too. Think of it like boarding an airplane. It's a structured system, but no one really enforces it. So, some folks need to bumrush the lint to be first on board. Maybe because that's just how they are, or maybe they have an urgent need (gotta pee? Get their toddler situated?). But most people hang back and take their time, and some like to be the last on because their bags are checked and they want to spend the least amount of time in a cramped space. When society opens up I'll probably be at the back of the line regardless of what my boarding group is.
 

UtahJoe

Team Workhorse
Team MTBNJ Halter's
EjdEOC2.jpg


Plus ford and tesla are building them as well....im sure this will be billions in ventilators and maintenance and by the time they will be needed again they will be obsolete.
 
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