Assuming my 1.5% infection rate in the most densely populated part of the country is accurate. Then only 4.5 million in the USA will contract it if we go about normal business. I think the last time I went to the city I easily walked past about 5000 people in a mile. So let me run some numbers based on that and the number of new cases reported on 3/20 in NYC. 3762 new cases reported on 3/20. Nearly all of those people took mass transit to get tested. Lets say 500 people per case positive interacted in a way that would pass along infection. There should be 1.8 million new cases in the 2 to 14 days after 3/20. Bottom line is that this thing really isn't that infectious and I think my basic calculations prove that pretty effectively.
you could then do your calculation a week ago, and claim 1% infection rate, or a week before that an claim .75%
and it does not account for the arrival rate of 10,000 more people per day right now across NY state.
covid19tracker.health.ny.gov
i will counter with the diamond princess. is a 950' cruise ship with 4,400 (some sites report as few as 3,700) people on it with 13 decks, more or less crowded than
NYC? They quarantined to quarters, and ended up with 712 cases. your example says it should have stopped sub 100.
The cruise ship was in quarantine for several months after over 700 people tested positive for COVID-19.
www.statista.com
I think your point is that if we modified our usual practices we will not see the unmitigated rate that I outlined.
Since we don't pick our nose or shake hands anymore, there will be a slowing. masks, gloves perhaps?
I don't disagree with that, i do claim it is still an unacceptable rate
that will crush the healthcare system.
The transmission by 1 person was estimated (it was something between 1.8 and 2.4 infected per person infected,)
the probability of becoming infected goes up with the number of people infected, until it is nearly unavoidable.
this is the issue with this type of growth. Then the "active" curve subtracts the resolved cases, which
is how it turns back down. if it turns down fast enough, herd immunity can be reached, but the resolve
rate is too slow, and the asymptomatic rate is too high.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
instant-read covid-19 blow tests !
Sick people will be locked up for not self quarantining.