Coronavirus

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Phil Tassi, an officer at Ferncliff Cemetery in Westchester, just north of New York City, said the crematory there usually cremates 12 bodies a day, but on Tuesday it processed 38 before 11 a.m.

“We’re running 16 hours a day, and we’ve hit capacity where we have to set limits because we can’t keep up with the number of bodies coming in,” Mr. Tassi said. “We have never had weeks like this.”
graveyard shift?
too soon?

On a serious note, someone should ask him what happens during the other 8 hours.

Just a thought on this which we all kind of know....and I'm not trying to sugar coat it. BUT.....remember that because of limitations on testing they are only testing people with Covid symptoms that could somewhat be proven or at least they were (not sure). So....of that group, only 30% are positive. That was kind of better than I might have expected. So that number won't go down until we expand testing to include more folks that don't have Covid, the Flu or enough sniffles that they can manage to get themselves a test.
there has to be expanded testing, just because of piece-of-mind, or "def quarantine and manage your situ" results - but it doesn't change
a thing for the hospitals. they receive people in distress, not the general population (which is a good reason not to do the testing at the hospital
for the general population)
 

Fat Trout

Well-Known Member
there has to be expanded testing, just because of piece-of-mind, or "def quarantine and manage your situ" results - but it doesn't change
a thing for the hospitals. they receive people in distress, not the general population (which is a good reason not to do the testing at the hospital
for the general population)
Absolutely on the testing. That's the only way we get back to a more normal interim while this still exists around us. I was only observing the initial % rate based on the "we aren't testing you without covid written on your forehead". Expanded and quick tests also helps hospitals though to sort between conditions (eventually).
 

1speed

Incredibly profound yet fantastically flawed
Haven't been really following this conversation here, so I apologize if I am going off the current focus. But I found this pretty interesting - not because of the data itself, but because of how it illustrates just how frustrating and confusing it can be to present data visually in a way that communicates everything you want to convey. I got this graphic from CNN (they sourced it from JHU's overall excellent site.) Simply put, this is an absolutely terrible data representation:

Covid Case Chart.JPG

At first glance, the chart seems to be directly contradicting the statement on growth just above it. The black curve is the full US, and the claim says that cases are doubling every five days. But the line (which is on a log scale for sake of reasonable comparisons of differentially sized states) very clearly implies that the rate of doubling for the US actually falls someplace closer to 2 days. You have to read the fine print to see why neither is incorrect - doubling time is actually measured only over the last week for the statement above the chart, but the x-axis for the chart is "days since 50th case." That's considerably longer than one week for most of the states here. So the chart and the statement would only agree for states that reached their 50th case only within the last week (e.g., ND is probably close to that range.)

This is the kind of thing that a lot of people just ignore, and in most situations (think those old USA Today Infographics) it really isn't a big deal. But sometimes it can be a big deal, and that's kind of scary in some ways because, in this case, we're talking about how people consume information during a crisis situation that sorta requires we all have a pretty good idea and some level of agreement on what is actually going on. The reality here is that you could have two different people look at this graphic and come to two different conclusions on the rate of growth: the US is doubling every five days if you take the statement at face value and every 2.5 or so days if you just read the graph. Both are right within their own context because they are concerned with a different sample that supports their conclusion. The scary part comes into play when those numbers are used to proxy or motivate action - do you behave differently under each scenario? If the answer is even "possibly", then this kind of graphic can be dangerous. And admittedly, it's tough - a large part of my career has been spent taking technical analyses and converting them to easily digestible summaries that are going to be used by non-technical people to make decisions that involve significant dollars, or impact large groups of people. And I figure if I say I've been successful at it half the time, I'm being overly generous to myself. But it's worth the time to at least try to get this kind of stuff right. And I think they missed that here, and in several others I've seen recently.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Haven't been really following this conversation here, so I apologize if I am going off the current focus. But I found this pretty interesting - not because of the data itself, but because of how it illustrates just how frustrating and confusing it can be to present data visually in a way that communicates everything you want to convey. I got this graphic from CNN (they sourced it from JHU's overall excellent site.) Simply put, this is an absolutely terrible data representation:

View attachment 124064

At first glance, the chart seems to be directly contradicting the statement on growth just above it. The black curve is the full US, and the claim says that cases are doubling every five days. But the line (which is on a log scale for sake of reasonable comparisons of differentially sized states) very clearly implies that the rate of doubling for the US actually falls someplace closer to 2 days. You have to read the fine print to see why neither is incorrect - doubling time is actually measured only over the last week for the statement above the chart, but the x-axis for the chart is "days since 50th case." That's considerably longer than one week for most of the states here. So the chart and the statement would only agree for states that reached their 50th case only within the last week (e.g., ND is probably close to that range.)

This is the kind of thing that a lot of people just ignore, and in most situations (think those old USA Today Infographics) it really isn't a big deal. But sometimes it can be a big deal, and that's kind of scary in some ways because, in this case, we're talking about how people consume information during a crisis situation that sorta requires we all have a pretty good idea and some level of agreement on what is actually going on. The reality here is that you could have two different people look at this graphic and come to two different conclusions on the rate of growth: the US is doubling every five days if you take the statement at face value and every 2.5 or so days if you just read the graph. Both are right within their own context because they are concerned with a different sample that supports their conclusion. The scary part comes into play when those numbers are used to proxy or motivate action - do you behave differently under each scenario? If the answer is even "possibly", then this kind of graphic can be dangerous. And admittedly, it's tough - a large part of my career has been spent taking technical analyses and converting them to easily digestible summaries that are going to be used by non-technical people to make decisions that involve significant dollars, or impact large groups of people. And I figure if I say I've been successful at it half the time, I'm being overly generous to myself. But it's worth the time to at least try to get this kind of stuff right. And I think they missed that here, and in several others I've seen recently.
nice write-up - so true. someone might not even notice the log10 grid.

Difficult to convey the urgency of something doubling every N days anyway -
lots of people getting a refresher on that math they claimed they'd never use in real life.

the raw numbers are now conveying the story, 50k->100k->200k in a little over a week is
more easily understood, although the same exact thing as 50->100->200....in the same timeframe.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
I wouldn't doubt they are full of covid and non covid bodies. I would imagine there is at the very minimum reluctance of funeral homes to take bodies at the moment that have covid or have been near covid. There could quite possibly be some actual temporary restrictions. Not pleasant either way....something we can all definitely agree on. I have personally seen some really bad things in my life and others have seen worse. I'm always glad to be in my bubble (ie not knowing where bodies go day to day) but in the back of my mind it is out there. Your friend reminds me how there are jobs out there that always fascinate me. I know they exist but I live in my bubble and try not to think about it.
Why would they go to funeral homes if you can’t have funerals? Wouldn’t they go straight to the furnace?
 

1speed

Incredibly profound yet fantastically flawed
nice write-up - so true. someone might not even notice the log10 grid.

Difficult to convey the urgency of something doubling every N days anyway -
lots of people getting a refresher on that math they claimed they'd never use in real life.

the raw numbers are now conveying the story, 50k->100k->200k in a little over a week is
more easily understood, although the same exact thing as 50->100->200....in the same timeframe.
Thanks. Yes, VERY true about the urgency of doubling. Just for the record, I'm kind of loving that as a primary statistic precisely because it's a very easy one to wrap your head around. Most of my family lives in NJ, and I was trying to convince my mom not to go out if she can avoid it. The one thing that finally stuck was telling her that, at the rate NJ was doubling at that moment, if it stayed that way the ENTIRE state would have contracted it by April 15 (this was about a week ago or so, when the rate was something like 2.5X on a with a total of 12K cases. There are about 8.4M people in NJ, so that's what it was saying.) The idea of going from 12K to 8.4M seems far-fetched, until you do the count: 12-24-48-96-192-384-768-1,536-3,072-6,144 and then everyone. That's 9 doubling before it's inevitable, which means your talking no more than 20-25 days. Anyone can easily grasp that logic, and if there is any argument to do WHATEVER you can to avoid other people, that's the kind that can gain traction.
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
Why would they go to funeral homes if you can’t have funerals? Wouldn’t they go straight to the furnace?
Funerals have been limited to 10 people. I'd imagine some people still want them, chances are they didn't get to say goodbye while they were dying, being there are no visitor policies at all the hospitals right now. It's a very sad scenario. One of my coworkers has a daughter on a vent right now, she went into cardiac arrest last week. She has only been able to visit her because she works at the hospital. She'll be saying goodbye tomorrow, for gift of life.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Thanks. Yes, VERY true about the urgency of doubling. Just for the record, I'm kind of loving that as a primary statistic precisely because it's a very easy one to wrap your head around. Most of my family lives in NJ, and I was trying to convince my mom not to go out if she can avoid it. The one thing that finally stuck was telling her that, at the rate NJ was doubling at that moment, if it stayed that way the ENTIRE state would have contracted it by April 15 (this was about a week ago or so, when the rate was something like 2.5X on a with a total of 12K cases. There are about 8.4M people in NJ, so that's what it was saying.) The idea of going from 12K to 8.4M seems far-fetched, until you do the count: 12-24-48-96-192-384-768-1,536-3,072-6,144 and then everyone. That's 9 doubling before it's inevitable, which means your talking no more than 20-25 days. Anyone can easily grasp that logic, and if there is any argument to do WHATEVER you can to avoid other people, that's the kind that can gain traction.
It’s funny but that’s the analogy I use to tell people on how easy it is to become a millionaire. Invest a thousand bucks and keep doubling...1k,2k,4k,8k,16k,32k,64k,128k,256k,512k...$1,000,024.
 

kdebello

Well-Known Member
Isn't it illegal for a hospital to not take a patient because of insurance?
Also, is it true that your credit is unaffected due to a nonpayment on a hospital bill?
Your credit can definitely be affected by a nonpayment.
Overlook ER submitted and got paid. Over a year later, the Dr tried to submit a claim but was denied for too much time passed since the visit. She sent it to collections.
I was able to get it removed
 

rick81721

Lothar
Still following NYC vs Westchester county for signs of NYC flattening out. Interesting that from Mar 27 on, Westchester flattened out a little and NYC got a little steeper.

1585932894809.png
 

ilnadi

Well-Known Member
a few interesting bits. maybe because he's a numbers guy and I understand that better than biological mechanisms
We’re in the beginning of the beginning, and we’re looking to get to the end of the beginning.
I had this discussion with my wife yesterday about predictions and why some stuff is open ended (she's a geneticist with an MBA so I lose the biology and the numbers parts :rolleyes:)
A is not a part of a bell curve, it is just an exponential; you can assume it is part of a bell curve based on knowledge but I am not sure you can draw the whole curve from it
B is the inflection point, where the increase starts decreasing
C IS part of a bell curve, this is where you know for sure what it does.
bell-curve-snall.jpg
Also, end of the beginning and beginning of the end were two of the best Agents of Shield eposides.

(bold/underline by me)
It’s why it’s important to use the time we’re buying in the first wave to quash the second wave when it happens

really? you have something better to do? in case it was not obvious, I do not ?
 
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SmooveP

Well-Known Member
Do you think hospitals are so good guys here? They simply must treat anyone according the federal law. Btw it is one of hidden costs of having millions of illegal aliens in the country.
There are limits to what hospitals are required to do. They treat US citizens, too. I imagine both groups have people that pay or not pay. On the flip side, it seems like a good number of countries that have socialized healthcare are pretty generous when it comes to treating foreigners who get sick/hurt when visiting.
 

rick81721

Lothar
I've added a second matrix to the summary page -

the upper one is the day over day % growth (new arrivals as a percentage of total)
This would be compared to an interest rate, if it were money. When the short term rate falls below the long
term rate, number of active cases still grows, until it hits the resolve rate - which we don't know -
Below the resolved rate would mean it is contracting.

The second is comparing the daily new cases to the previous day's new cases.
This is the change in 'arrival rate' - it is all over the place because of reporting differences,
so i'll look to smooth it. a negative number means fewer new cases than the day before.
if it goes to zero, that is linear growth, rather than exponential. Negative would mean contracting.

does that make sense?
Data differences with the source are the result of the source restating results (i can't get to their restatement)
and I've limited to 50 states and D.C.

not sure how helpful the second data set is, at least right now. numbers jumping in every direction.
 
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