This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[Norm]

Sorry I missed your contribution Leo,
you get full credit, just please show your work.

Ok then explain to me why the additive property of probability does not pertain in this case. This is where I am struggling to glue these together. The states that:

P(A) *or* P(B) = P(A) + P(B) - (P(A)*P(B))

In this case:

P(A) or P(B) = .01 + .01 - (.01 * .01) = .0199

I know this is stupid but the .0001 is why space shuttles blow up. And shit.

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem, The additive theorem of probability states if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then the probability of either A or B is given by

www.tutorialspoint.com

 

[68nova200]

I think we need a "math class with mtbnj" thread

edit... I am an engineer that barely passed math so don't ask me to lead.

 

[Norm]

I am an engineer that barely passed math so don't ask me to lead.

Yeah - I work in software so if the proverbial shuttle blows up we just patch it.

 

[ilnadi]

that's always been there

Oops, gotta read to the end

 

[serviceguy]

Ok then explain to me why the additive property of probability does not pertain in this case. This is where I am struggling to glue these together. The states that:

P(A) *or* P(B) = P(A) + P(B) - (P(A)*P(B))

In this case:

P(A) or P(B) = .01 + .01 - (.01 * .01) = .0199

I know this is stupid but the .0001 is why space shuttles blow up. And shit.

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem, The additive theorem of probability states if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then the probability of either A or B is given by

www.tutorialspoint.com

the issue is with the 'only one dies scenario', which is additive with regard to the two scenario 'A dies AND B lives' OR 'A lives AND B dies), hence (.01 x .99) + (.99 x .01).

does that makes sense in a more SW compatible way?

 

[A Potted Plant]

couple things from the ER my wife told me....

Today shes working in triage, she said she has pulled several people out of cars who were in bad shape and needed to be rushed to ventilators and they are getting alot of patients who need to be on them. She said its getting pretty full....3 patients extubated (taken off the ventilator bc they recovered) today, 3 more tomorrow she hears. But she said they are managing.....today at least. This is not stressing her out...in fact...next week my son was supposed to be on spring break and she had planned to take the week off....since we are now all stuck at home, she canceled that so she could work more.

@Patrick Ill give you a story she told me last night of something that gets her stressed out....She was in the peds ER last night and they had a 4 month old baby come in with a fever...which she tells me is a serious thing and there are a whole bunch of things they need to do...I remember her mentioning a spinal tap...Anyway, only one parent can now come in to the peds ER with the child. Its also complicated now since they go into a room and get isolated and my wife my do the whole routine of gowning and ungowning every time she goes in. So the father came in....apparently he was not super familiar with caring for the baby...The baby started crying...he flipped out and starting yelling at my wife about it...my wife reminded him that he needs to pick the baby up and hold her....I guess this was new to him. He also had no answer for when the baby last ate, or slept, or pooped, etc...nothing. Ok fine...my wife is trying to tell him things thru the intercom, but hes flipping out and not having it and making her come in to hold the baby...which means she has to gown up and off again constantly...just giving her alot of shit....This gets her stressed...being yelled at by parents who are panicking and making it hard for her to do her job.....Working with covid patients, not so much. At least at the moment while things seem to still be under control....we'll have to see what the next few weeks bring.

My mom got a call from her boss today telling her that she is going to be reassigned. The psychiatric floor she works on is being closed down, so they told her they are going to reassign her to a floor with corona patients...Now my mom has never been a nurse on a medical floor...so she was pretty shocked they would even ask...She likes her job and doesnt want to quit, butttt...and i stopped her there..."NO...tell them to fuck off...your too old for that detail. " She is considering it, but she wants to see what the details are first.

A lot of the reassignments make no sense, on my wife's unit is essentially going to be bagging bodies at the reopened rehab. Most of her unit is in their 50s and 60s


Good luck to your wife and family, my wife might quit, her unit isn't being provided ppe currently they're being told they don't need it...

 

[Norm]

'A dies AND B lives' OR 'A lives AND B dies), hence (.01 x .99) + (.99 x .01).

Ah ok, yes I see now.

 

[UtahJoe]

A lot of the reassignments make no sense, on my wife's unit is essentially going to be bagging bodies at the reopened rehab. Most of her unit is in their 50s and 60s


Good luck to your wife and family, my wife might quit, her unit isn't being provided ppe currently they're being told they don't need it...

wow what is she doing that they arent giving her ppe?

 

[serviceguy]

A lot of the reassignments make no sense, on my wife's unit is essentially going to be bagging bodies at the reopened rehab. Most of her unit is in their 50s and 60s


Good luck to your wife and family, my wife might quit, her unit isn't being provided ppe currently they're being told they don't need it...

What PPE would she need to feel reasonably safe? Is it something that she would be able to buy herself just for the sake of keeping her job? Seems like this would be a bad time for quitting (even though perfectly understandable under the circumstances), given both the public recognition to the category (even though it doesn't help with safety) and possible financial gratification (even though yet to be confirmed and not yet quantified at all). Just a thought...

 

[Mahnken]

What PPE would she need to feel reasonably safe? Is it something that she would be able to buy herself just for the sake of keeping her job? Seems like this would be a bad time for quitting (even though perfectly understandable under the circumstances), given both the public recognition to the category (even though it doesn't help with safety) and possible financial gratification (even though yet to be confirmed and not yet quantified at all). Just a thought...

Every worker in the hospital should at least be wearing a surgical mask. In case they are sick with no symptoms, it would be harder to spread. That's the least anyone should have.

 

[Bike N Gear]

I think we need a "math class with mtbnj" thread

edit... I am an engineer that barely passed math so don't ask me to lead.

My son took stat's last semester. His head almost exploded during the WH Press briefing when Dr. Brix mentioned the Confidence Area on the graph. He never thought he'd hear these words in the real world.

 

[68nova200]

My son took stat's last semester. His head almost exploded during the WH Press briefing when Dr. Brix mentioned the Confidence Area on the graph. He never thought he'd hear these words in the real world.

its been 10 years since i heard those terms. haha

 

[Patrick]

Ok then explain to me why the additive property of probability does not pertain in this case. This is where I am struggling to glue these together. The states that:

P(A) *or* P(B) = P(A) + P(B) - (P(A)*P(B))

In this case:

P(A) or P(B) = .01 + .01 - (.01 * .01) = .0199

I know this is stupid but the .0001 is why space shuttles blow up. And shit.

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem

Statistics - Probability Additive Theorem, The additive theorem of probability states if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then the probability of either A or B is given by

www.tutorialspoint.com

probably cause it is unordered?
or are you really asking.....
P(a & not b) + p(b & not a) ?

if we agree both die is .01*.01, then why wouldn't both live be .99*.99, which leaves the balance as 1 dies?

URN problem - 100 balls, 99 white, 1 black.
2 draws w/replacement, what is the chance of WB or BW
.99*.01 + .01*.99 (Leo's observation, my matrix)

Or another picture of the outcomes.

 

[A Potted Plant]

wow what is she doing that they arent giving her ppe?

On her current unit no the rehab yes but I believe they're still only provided one per day/reuse.

I don't want to narrow the scope as to where my wife is in case AH rolls over this as their most important message is canning things said in public.

 

[UtahJoe]

but I believe they're still only provided one per day/reuse

ya this is all my wife is getting, 1 n95...per shift...then a surgical mask on top of that which gets changed out often. She said they have a UV sanitizer that they are putting things in...like she mentioned the other day one of the techs put her phone thru it for her. They are doing something with the masks, my wife mentioned radiation....not sure, she didnt have any details.

 

[A Potted Plant]

What PPE would she need to feel reasonably safe? Is it something that she would be able to buy herself just for the sake of keeping her job? Seems like this would be a bad time for quitting (even though perfectly understandable under the circumstances), given both the public recognition to the category (even though it doesn't help with safety) and possible financial gratification (even though yet to be confirmed and not yet quantified at all). Just a thought...

Professionally fitted n95 would be a start..

Financial health doesn't matter if you don't have your health

 

[A Potted Plant]

ya this is all my wife is getting, 1 n95...per shift...then a surgical mask on top of that which gets changed out often. She said they have a UV sanitizer that they are putting things in...like she mentioned the other day one of the techs put her phone thru it for her. They are doing something with the masks, my wife mentioned radiation....not sure, she didnt have any details.

The issue with that is your going in with the mask on then your going around to other co-workers wearing the same mask.

My wife feels the way I do, the biggest risk is other nurses. My wife was going to the Ed last weekend to be a buddy but she wasn't going to get anything side for gloves and a surgical mask.

They need to stop having admin call the shots, they're so short sighted and don't understand the behaviors. Whole units should be admission with ppe only, and decontamination should happen at the end of shift leaving the unit. Suiting up and unsuiting and resuiting is an exposure opportunity.

 

[serviceguy]

Financial health doesn't matter if you don't have your health

Agreed, but if she was in the position to provide for her own health safety then she could considering the financial aspect of it.

 

[Norm]

if we agree both die is .01*.01, then why wouldn't both live be .99*.99, which leaves the balance as 1 dies?

Yeah, I know that makes sense. But when you use the commonly accepted additive property of probability, it no longer maths out right. You end up with .01% overage.

When you frame it in exact ordering scenario like above, BW and WB, that works. That sort of renders the Additive Probability Law, well, wrong. What I would be interested in is not why the math of BW + WB works, so much as why this does not:

Addition Law of Probability - ProofWiki

proofwiki.org

 

[Patrick]

Yeah, I know that makes sense. But when you use the commonly accepted additive property of probability, it no longer maths out right. You end up with .01% overage.

When you frame it in exact ordering scenario like above, BW and WB, that works. That sort of renders the Additive Probability Law, well, wrong. What I would be interested in is not why the math of BW + WB works, so much as why this does not:

Addition Law of Probability - ProofWiki

proofwiki.org

additive law is a simultaneous observation - so we are both correct. the chance of sampling 1A&1D is .0199,
assuming the chance doesn't change with time, and the next time you look, the 1 that was D could be A.

oh, P(a) or P(b) is the chance of (a or b or (a and b)) - this is why. the subtraction takes out the redundant (B and A)